Haiti
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- Over the last 5 years, Haiti’s total cereal production (rice, maize, and sorghum) has fallen gradually, reaching a cumulative decline of around 38 percent over this period. According to FEWS NET estimates, this downward trend is expected to continue in Marketing Year (MY) 2023/24, when production is expected to fall by 3 percent compared with the 2022/2023 period, and by 31 percent compared with the five-year average (Figure 1). This decline is due to reduced maize production in the main production zones (Artibonite, Ouest and Centre). The previous season's poor harvests limited farmers' ability to set aside seeds, increasing the cost of seeds on the market. The scarcity and elevated costs of seeds, along with irregular spatiotemporal rainfall distribution, adversely affected spring harvests (Figure 2).
- Total cereal supply (Production + Imports - Exports) has seen a gradual decline over the last three marketing years (MY 2020/21 to MY 2022/23), reaching an overall decline of around 26 percent over that period. However, according to FEWS NET forecasts, this trend will soften in MY 2023/24 due to an increase of more than 11 percent in rice supply and more than 5 percent in sorghum supply. The increase in rice and sorghum supply is the result of forecasted growth in import volumes of 16 percent and 67 percent, respectively.
- Estimates for total domestic production of rice in the last MY (2022/23) was 101,812 MT and is forecasted to be 94,920 MT in MY 2023/24. In the Artibonite Department, responsible for 90 percent of the country's rice production, ongoing security issues persistently impede farmers from engaging in regular land cultivation. The presence of armed gangs in the area has resulted in diminished capital for farmers, the displacement of producer households, and restricted access to inputs and labor from other regions. In addition, land irrigation is limited due to the lack of maintenance of canals and the shortage of fuel for irrigation pumps.
- The sustained disruption of urban markets is anticipated to persist due to ongoing socio-political instability and gang-related violence in the Port-au-Prince metropolitan area, thereby impeding the distribution of food to other regions. Local cereal production is forecast to be down on the previous year and on average due to insecurity, inadequate irrigation infrastructure, unfavorable weather conditions, and high fuel and transport costs.
- Local food prices are expected to rise and remain above average due to higher production and transport costs, as well as lower domestic production. Imported food prices are likely to be below the peaks recorded in 2022, and well above the five-year average, due to supply disruptions and currency depreciation trends. After two and a half years of steady depreciation, the Haitian gourde (HTG) has appreciated slightly between April and August 2023. Although the Bank of the Republic of Haiti (BRH) has made strides in bolstering foreign currency reserves, leading to recent appreciation, the underlying economic fundamentals are fragile, with very high reliance on external financing. Consequently, there is a higher likelihood that weak growth and diminished investment will result in a depreciation of the HTG in the outlook period. High fuel costs are expected to drive elevated keep food and transport inflation through the outlook period.