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Haiti Cereal Supply and Market Outlook

  • Supply and Market Outlook
  • Haiti
  • July 1, 2022
Haiti Cereal Supply and Market Outlook

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • For the 2022/2023 marketing year (MY) from July to June, overall cereal production (rice, maize, and sorghum) is expected to decrease by 26.3 percent compared to 2021/2022 and by 32.9 percent compared to the five-year average. This decline is due mainly to the decline in grain production in Artibonite, Nord, the Nord-Est, and Ouest, particularly a decline in rice production in Artibonite. In these four departments and in Centre, spring harvests were compromised by the scarcity and high cost of seeds and fuel and below-average rainfall with atypical patterns across regions of the country and periods of the production season, among other factors. This affected the summer and fall 2022 harvests. The Nord-Ouest was most affected by the low rainfall. In the Artibonite Valley, the poor condition of the irrigation canals limited the normal irrigation of cultivable land. Insecurity and increased fertilizer prices, particularly in Artibonite, have prevented farmers from planting their land normally. The occupation of the production area by armed gangs has led to a decrease in economic activities, negatively impacting the financial capacity of farmers, displacing producers, and reducing access to farm inputs from other areas, among other factors.

    • Total cereal supply (production + imports - exports) in 2022/2023, estimated at 1,293,948 MT, is expected to be 5.6 percent lower than in 2021/2022 and 6.4 percent lower than the five-year average. A cereal deficit of about 4.3 percent of overall needs is expected in 2022/2023, in contrast to the level observed in MY 2021/2022 and the first cereal deficit since 2015/2016. This cereal deficit will result mainly from a decrease in the total supply of maize, as well as rice and sorghum. The 2022/2023 maize supply is expected to be 28 percent and 25 percent lower than the five-year average and the previous year, respectively. Total imports are likely to increase by 5.4 percent compared to the five-year average and by 2.6 percent compared to 2021/2022. The decline in production is expected to be one of the factors behind the increase in food imports during the current marketing year. In quantitative terms, rice and wheat imports are likely to account for about 96 percent of total cereal imports (rice, wheat, maize, and sorghum).

    • Grain supply for 2022/2023 is expected to be 4.5 percent below consumption requirements for the same period. This overall imbalance between the supply and demand of cereals, the first cereal deficit since 2015/2016, is due to an overall deficit in maize and sorghum that is not offset by the overall surplus in rice and wheat. The declining maize supply could cause shortages and higher prices in 2022/2023. The rice supply for 2022/23 will likely be sufficient to meet demand, but dependence on imports will continue to increase. For maize, the decrease in supply will be significant, and imports will not offset the decrease in production. This could lead to higher prices and a reduction in market supply.

    • Cereal prices rose atypically in 2021/22 compared to the five-year average, driven by exchange rate depreciation, lower production, fuel scarcity, soaring insecurity, and supply chain disruptions. These factors will disrupt the normal functioning of food markets throughout the country, particularly in the Port-au-Prince metropolitan area, during the July 2022/June 2023 period. At the same time, the price adjustment for fuel has led to an increase in public transportation prices, which in turn has affected the retail prices of food and non-food products.

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