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Haiti Cereal Supply and Market Outlook

  • Supply and Market Outlook
  • Haiti
  • December 1, 2021
Haiti Cereal Supply and Market Outlook

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • Total cereal production (rice, maize, and sorghum) is expected to increase by 4.28 percent compared to the five-year average in 2021/2022 but will be close to that of the 2020/2021 period due to relatively better-than-expected observed rainfall, particularly in the spring 2021 growing season. Indeed, compared to 2021/2022, rice and maize production is expected to slightly decline, while sorghum production is expected to increase by about 10 percent. 

    • Total cereal supply (production + imports - exports) is expected to remain stable in 2021/2022 compared to 2020/2021 (Figure 1), mainly due to maize imports increasing by over 30 percent. In quantitative terms, rice and wheat imports are likely to account for about 96 percent of total cereal imports (rice, wheat, maize, and sorghum), which account for 69 percent of Haiti's overall food supply. 

    • Except for maize, the supply of each of the cereals in 2021/2022 is expected to be able to fulfill consumption requirements of this period due to the high level of imports compared to the previous MY and the five-year average. 

    • Several shocks have affected market functioning, prices, and supply. The earthquake and Hurricane Grace in August 2021, fuel shortages, and a volatile sociopolitical situation, marked by the sharp rise in insecurity, have disrupted food markets across the country, especially in the metropolitan area of Port-au-Prince. The worsening of macroeconomic conditions, such as local currency depreciation, higher public debt and fiscal deficit, and poor prospects for economic recovery, will continue to affect local production levels and the government's ability to maintain fuel price subsidies. These factors will continue to influence food prices and supply. Cereal prices will follow an upward trend during the outlook period. Except for maize, prices are likely to remain atypically high compared to the five-year average.

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