The rarity of the dollar on the exchange market and sociopolitical instability risk compromising food access

After below average rainfall between September and October, especially in the northern region, heavy precipitation was observed in the first dekad of November, due to the tropical depression Eta. But the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall is still irregular. Thus, apart from irrigated areas and semi-humid mountains, this irregularity, added to the decline in cultivated agricultural areas, leads to below average fall harvests.

The sociopolitical climate further deteriorates as calls for the President to step down by February 7th, 2021 continue. Cases of kidnapping for ransom, assassination and protests continue. This would risk further deteriorating the conditions of food availability and access, by disrupting market supply and trade flows due to lockdown measures.

Moreover, despite large and regular injections of US Dollars by the Central Bank into the foreign exchange market (US $ 39 million as of November 3), it is becoming increasingly difficult to acquire them. The exchange rate on the informal market went up to 85 gourdes to the dollar while the reference rate of the Central Bank remains around 66 gourdes as of 23 November. This is starting to reverse the downward trend in the prices of imported products observed since September, negatively impacting the purchasing power of the poorest and those directly or indirectly dependent on transfers from abroad.

Livelihoods are still disrupted, despite a slight improvement in availability due to the fall harvests. Poor and very poor households will therefore continue to adopt crisis or stress coping strategies to maintain their current level of food consumption. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity will therefore persist in most regions.