Widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist, exacerbated by violence, food price inflation, and internal displacement

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected in Haiti between June and September 2024. This situation is due to food inflation of around 40 percent and ongoing insecurity that disrupts supply chains. Despite forecasts of minimal seasonal improvements in prices and food availability after the spring harvests, low-income households are expected to continue to face significant challenges in meeting their food needs.
• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will persist between October 2024 and January 2025. Very poor households in urban and rural areas and displaced persons will be the worst affected. However, an improvement from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) is expected in the Southern, Southeastern, Northern, Western, and Central municipalities. Monetary transfers from migrants during the end-of-year festivities will boost income, stimulating the resumption of economic activities, notably informal petty trade and improving traffic flow on the main roads. 
• The affected areas are the districts of Port-au-Prince, Croix-des-Bouquets, and La Gonâve in the West department, Môle-Saint-Nicolas in the lower North-West department, Saint-Marc in the Artibonite department, and Baradères in the Nippes department. The commune of Cité Soleil will be the only area in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). 
• Emergency food assistance is proving insufficient to meet needs. From January to March 2024, the total number of beneficiaries of emergency food aid covered less than 4 percent of the total population, a trend set to continue until January 2025. However, the population in need is estimated to be between 2 to 2.5 million people by January 2025.

Widespread insecurity caused by gang violence and the deteriorated macroeconomic situation, including high commodity prices and rainfall variability, have resulted in widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes in Cité Soleil. These factors hinder the economic activities of poor and very poor households, impacting their sources of income and food supply, thus limiting their access to food. The most affected areas include those facing insecurity due to gang violence (districts of Port-au-Prince and Croix-des-Bouquets), those facing irregularities in the distribution of rainfall (low North-West), as well as those hosting a significant proportion of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the Southern region (Grand Sud). The commune of Cité Soleil in the district of Port-au-Prince remains the only area in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). However, other communes in the North-West (Baie-de-Henne, Bombardopolis, Jean-Rabel, Bassin-Bleu, La Tortue) and West (Croix-des-Bouquets, Port-au-Prince, Tabarre, among others) also have groups of households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4).

The impacts of insecurity on market supply, livelihoods, and the prices of basic foodstuffs remain evident, despite a slight improvement in the security climate observed in Port-au-Prince in April and May. Market supply problems, as well as extortion by gangs on main roads, contribute to maintaining high food prices compared to annual and three-year averages. The impacts of insecurity are considerable, affecting the functioning of markets (Figure 1), the prices of basic foodstuffs (more than 27 percent above average) and income-generating activities, which reduce purchasing power and disrupt household eating habits. With only minimal seasonal improvements in prices and food availability expected after the spring harvests, low-income households — whose incomes remain below average — will likely continue to struggle to access food and meet their basic food needs. Food inflation reduces their ability to acquire essential commodities, resulting in a reduction in the quantity and quality of food consumed. As a result, these households are increasingly exposed to malnutrition and acute food insecurity.

In addition, the persistence of insecurity and violence related to the activities of armed gangs has led to internal displacement of populations. In June, more than 578,000 IDPs, mainly from the Port-au-Prince Metropolitan Area (ZMPP), were registered. The 270,000-plus IDPs who were welcomed in the Southern region increased the share of IDPs from this region in the national total from 30 percent to almost 50 percent between March and June. For these IDPs, access to food is one of the priority needs in reception areas, whether in sites or with host families. As a result, poor host households had to cope with an increase in the number of dependents when they were already in crisis. In addition, other households were forced to abandon their livelihoods to escape gang violence in the capital. 

Between July and September 2024, an improvement in the availability of local food products from spring harvests, although below average, should lead to a slight improvement in household food consumption. However, this improvement will be limited due to the relatively low share of these products in the food supply of poor households, high prices, the general decline in sources of income due to insecurity, and the continuous pressures exerted by IDPs on host families. 

Between October 2024 and January 2025, some areas are expected to transition from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2), resulting in a slight decrease in the number of people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and worse. An expected improvement in the security climate and an increase in income from remittances from abroad, particularly in urban areas, will somewhat mitigate food insecurity levels. These factors should stimulate the recovery of economic activities, especially in the end-of-year period, such as informal street petty trade, as well as promote greater movement of goods and people on the main roads.

Learn more

The analysis in this report is based on information available as of June 14, 2024. Follow these links for additional information: 

• Previous report Haiti Food Security Outlook: February to September 2024 
• Overview of FEWS NET's scenario development methodology
• Overview of IPC and IPC-compatible analysis
• FEWS NET's approach to estimating the population in need 
• FEWS NET's approach to humanitarian food assistance analysis

Insecurity is one of the main determinants of food insecurity in Haiti. The activities of armed groups or gangs, and the insecurity caused by gangs, have been on the increase in Port-au-Prince since the 2000s, despite a period of calm between 2006 and 2011. Violence by armed gangs has disrupted livelihoods, in particular the income-generating activities of urban and rural households, the importation of foodstuffs, and the functioning and supply of markets. The ZMPP is the epicenter of conflicts, but gangs have intensified their activities in order to expand their areas of control, including by illegally imposing transit taxes on national roads to the north, center, and south. The intensification of armed gang violence in March 2024 led to an increase in displaced populations to safer places, both in the various reception sites in the capital and in other departments, particularly in the Southern region. 

Insecurity and political and institutional instability have strongly impacted macroeconomic conditions. The country's economy experienced five consecutive years of contraction, from 2019 to 2023, with almost all economic sector activities recording a decline. The annual inflation rate remains significantly above average, and the local currency has depreciated sharply, despite a slight appreciation observed over the past six months. The high dependence on imports to meet basic food needs further complicates the macroeconomic situation. According to the World Bank, imports of goods and services accounted for more than 25 percent of the GDP in 2023. In addition, the livelihoods of poor urban and rural households have been adversely affected by persistent insecurity, resulting in falling household incomes. Households' low purchasing power reduces their ability to access markets, which are their main sources of food. 

Agricultural production has been heavily impacted by insecurity and the government's low investment capacity in rural infrastructure. Despite the country's dependence on food imports, agriculture remains a significant source of income and food for rural households. However, insecurity due to the violence of armed gangs has led to the abandonment of arable land by farmers, thus aggravating production deficits, particularly in Artibonite, the main rice production area of the country, and in the West department. In addition, due to the poor economic condition, the government cannot invest in agricultural development infrastructure to stimulate production. Armed gangs control the irrigation system in the Liancourt, Verrettes, and Petite Rivière valley and demand an illegal payment for using the water. These factors explain the gradual decline in cereal production, particularly for maize and rice (a decline of more than 10 percent in 2023, according to the USDA). Spring harvests, from June to July, account for around 60 percent of annual national agricultural production, while the smaller autumn harvests, from October to November, and winter harvests, from December to February, make up the remainder. 

Early warning of acute food insecurity outcomes requires forecasting outcomes months in advance to provide decision makers with sufficient time to budget, plan, and respond to expected humanitarian crises. However, due to the complex and variable factors that influence acute food insecurity, definitive predictions are impossible. Scenario Development is the methodology that allows FEWS NET to meet decision makers’ needs by developing a “most likely” scenario of the future. The starting point for scenario development is a robust analysis of current food security conditions, which is the focus of this section.

Key guiding principles for FEWS NET’s scenario development process include applying the Disaster Risk Reduction framework and a livelihoods-based lens to assessing acute food insecurity outcomes. A household’s risk of acute food insecurity is a function of not only hazards (such as a drought) but also the household’s vulnerability to those hazards (for example, the household’s level of dependence on rainfed crop production for food and income) and coping capacity (which considers both household capacity to cope with a given hazard and the use of negative coping strategies that harm future coping capacity). To evaluate these factors, FEWS NET grounds this analysis in a strong foundational understanding of local livelihoods, which are the means by which a household meets their basic needs. FEWS NET’s scenario development process also accounts for the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework; the Four Dimensions of Food Security; and UNICEF’s Nutrition Conceptual Framework, and is closely aligned with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analytical framework.

Key hazards

Insecurity: Primarily concentrated in the Port-au-Prince metropolitan area, insecurity continues to represent a significant hazard. During the first quarter of 2024, gang violence intensified, peaking in March. According to ACLED, the average number of political violence events during the second quarter of 2024 decreased by more than 50 compared to the first quarter of the same year. Between March and June, this decrease reached more than 75 percent. However, the ZMMP remains the epicenter of gang activity (Figure 3). This violence has led to massive displacements and disruptions to livelihoods, economic and agricultural activities, the functionality of markets, and international trade. 

Increase in IDPs: Despite a decrease in political violence events since April, internal displacement has intensified. From early March to early June, the number of IDPs increased significantly, from 362,500 to more than 578,000, an increase of about 60 percent, according to the IOM. This increase was particularly pronounced in the provinces, where the number of IDPs increased by 95 percent, and in the Southern region, with an increase of 130 percent. Most of the province's IDPs come from the ZMPP (78 percent). Artibonite is a notable exception, with half of IDPs fleeing areas in this department. The proportion of IDPs from the Southern region compared to the national total has increased considerably, from about 30 percent to almost 50 percent over the same period (March to June). 

Agroclimatic situation: Rainfall from January to May 2024 has improved compared to the previous year. The vegetation index, which was below average from January to May 2023, is now above average for the same period in 2024 (Figure 4). However, spatio-temporal distribution remains erratic, which has delayed the start of the spring agricultural season and impacted the growth and development of crops, especially short-cycle crops, including cereals.

Macroeconomic situation: Headline inflation has maintained an upward trend since February, rising from 23 percent in February to 28.3 percent in May, despite the stable exchange rate of the gourde against the USD over the past six months (IHSI) (Figure 4). This level of headline inflation is largely due to inflation in food and non-alcoholic beverages, which reached an alarming 38.5 percent year-on-year (April 2023 to April 2024).

Crop production: Agriculture represents both a source of food and income for households, especially those in rural areas. 

• Agriculture contributes an average of 20 to 25 percent to household food consumption. Throughout the country, the spring season is underway, with maize, beans, and rice at different stages of development, due to near-average rains facilitating good soil moisture (Figure 5). In Nippes, the South, and the North-East, the harvests of green maize and some beans and peas have already begun. Throughout the country, the local products most commonly found on the market and in households are mangoes, avocados, bananas, breadfruit, roots and tubers, which are currently the main sources of household food. 

• According to the USDA, for the marketing year 2023/24, rice production is the lowest observed in more than a decade due to land abandonment caused by insecurity and erratic spatial distribution of rainfall. After four successive months of lean season from February to May, June marks the start of the harvest of the spring season, which is the main harvest period, producing around 60 percent of the annual national agricultural production. As a result, access to food and income for poor rural households improved slightly in June. However, with below-average production, households cannot build up adequate stocks, which generally last less than two months.
• Market sales of part of farmers' harvests provide them with monetary income. This year, they struggle to sell their surpluses at markets and have limited capital for subsequent agricultural seasons. As a result, income from the sale of agricultural products is low compared with the average, with the exception of the sale of mangoes and other fruit trees (avocado, pineapple, citrus, breadfruit) and green maize in production areas. Insecurity and political instability also disrupt agricultural activities and access to land. Due to falling public investment in infrastructure and production support, as well as difficulties in accessing markets, the performance of the agricultural sector remains weak. This results in a decrease in cultivated areas and below-average production.

Fishing: At present, Haiti's inshore fishing industry is showing a decline in catches and revenues compared with the historical average. This situation is due to a number of factors, including the degradation of marine ecosystems, overfishing, and climatic hazards. These elements have significantly affected the livelihoods of coastal communities. 

Off-own-farm income: According to the results of a survey on off-farm income, conducted in May 2024 by FEWS NET, the two main sources of income for poor households are the sale of farm labor and petty trade. The results of the survey revealed a downward trend in the availability of opportunities in these main sources of income compared to a normal year.

Demand for farm labor is currently experiencing a typical seasonal downturn. The irregularity of the rains was the main reason for the decline in the income of the agricultural workforce. Although there has been an increase in the nominal wage of agricultural labor compared with a normal year, this increase is mainly due to inflation and the depreciation of the national currency. This increase was therefore unable to offset the decline in demand for labor from middle-income and affluent households, due to the successive deterioration in general economic conditions, which affected their ability to finance agricultural activities, including hiring labor. Petty trade has also been affected by insecurity, resulting in reduced opportunities and income.

Market supply: Due to insecurity related to gang violence, imports have been severely affected. Some boats have been forced to redirect to Cap-Haitien. Given that the port of Cap-Haïtien is smaller than that of Port-au-Prince, and cannot accommodate vessels of certain sizes, the use of smaller vessels has sometimes been adopted as a strategy to cope with the violence in the capital and avoid shortages of rice, a product widely consumed in Haiti. According to S&P, during the first quarter of 2024, 57 percent of exports went through Cap-Haitien and 43 percent through Port-au-Prince, while last year, 58 percent went through Port-au-Prince and 42 percent through Cap-Haitien. The two major markets in Port-au-Prince, Croix-des-Bossales and Croix-des-Bouquets, continue to face disruptions in their operation due to insecurity related to gang violence. While activities in this market have further declined significantly according to key informants, buyers and sellers are heading to other neighboring markets, including the markets of Pétion-Ville, Canape-Vert, and Delmas to continue their exchanges of goods and services. Others are supplied by means requiring higher transaction costs, resulting in higher product costs. Despite disruptions in supply chains, the strategies adopted to date have made it possible to avoid shortages of basic foodstuffs.

Apart from these difficulties, markets across the country, particularly in the Northern region, the Transversal region (Artibonite, Center), and the Southern region are well-supplied, particularly with imported food products. Seasonal local produce is also of note, including mango, avocado, citrus products, market garden produce, green corn, roots and tubers, and bananas.

Prices of basic foodstuffs: Basic foodstuffs, and imported and local products, remained broadly stable in price month-on-month between April and May. Over the month of May, prices for imported rice (4 percent broken) and edible oil, maize grain and local black beans varied only marginally at the national level, rising by an average of 2 and more than 3 percent respectively. In contrast, wheat flour experienced a decline of almost 5 percent on average during the same period. Year-on-year (May 2023 to May 2024), prices are down, except for imported rice, whose price has risen by more than 11 percent on average. Maize, wheat flour, and oil posted the largest annual declines at 25.5, 21, and 16 percent, respectively (Figure 6). However, all prices for basic foodstuffs remain atypically above their five-year average in proportions ranging from 77 to nearly 91 percent. On a national scale, according to FEWS NET data, the monthly cost of the minimum quantity of kilocalories (2100 kcal) consumed per family, which was between 7,000 and 10,000 HTG in November 2022, will be between 16,000 and 18,000 HTG in 2023, until the first four months of 2024 (Figure 7). Rice alone accounts for more than 42 percent on average of the cost of the diet of poorer households, followed by wheat flour (more than 18 percent). In this context, the high prices of such products only serve to widen the food survival and livelihood deficits of poor and very poor families in Haiti.

Malnutrition situation: Significant variations in the malnutrition situation in Haiti have been observed since last year, according to data from the SMART 2023 survey and the IPC analysis of acute malnutrition (IPC AMN). Indeed, during the SMART survey, the municipalities with the highest GAM rates are Croix-des-Bouquets (19.2 percent), Fonds-Verrettes (13.3 percent), Delmas (11.7 percent), and Cabaret (11.3 percent). The data is influenced by various factors, such as insecurity, rising prices for basic food and non-food products, the prevalence of certain childhood diseases (cholera, diarrhea), and the low availability of drinking water and health services. From June to November 2024, the only commune that is in Critical (IPC AMN Phase 4) acute malnutrition is the commune of Croix-des-Bouquets, while Artibonite, the South-East, and the communes of Cité Soleil, Delmas, Cabaret, Fonds-Verrettes, Caracol, Carice, Ouanaminthe, Bainet, Belle Anse, Jacmel, and La Vallée are facing Serious (IPC AMN Phase 3) acute malnutrition. 

According to OCHA's situation report, since March 1, 2,593 children under five years of age suffering from acute malnutrition have been screened in IDP sites, while 140 others suffering from severe acute malnutrition have been treated in health centers and mobile clinics.

Humanitarian food assistance – defined as emergency food assistance (in-kind, cash, or voucher) – may play a key role in mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes. FEWS NET analysts always incorporate available information on food assistance, with the caveat that information on food assistance is highly variable across geographies and over time. In line with IPC protocols, FEWS NET uses the best available information to assess where food assistance is “significant” (defined by at least 25 percent of households in a given area receiving at least 25 percent of their caloric requirements through food assistance); see report Annex. In addition, FEWS NET conducts deeper analysis of the likely impacts of food assistance on the severity of outcomes, as detailed in FEWS NET’s guidance on Integrating Humanitarian Food Assistance into Scenario Development. Other types of assistance (e.g., livelihoods or nutrition assistance; social safety net programs) are incorporated elsewhere in FEWS NET’s broader analysis, as applicable.

Due to funding challenges, in addition to major concerns regarding targeting and distribution, emergency food assistance is proving to be insufficient in the face of pressing needs. According to data from the Food Security Cluster, from January to March 2024, the cumulative number of beneficiaries of emergency food assistance, including all intervention modalities (vouchers/coupons, cash transfers, in-kind transfers), did not exceed 400,000 people. Since June 1, the WFP has distributed more than 43,600 hot meals to nearly 13,500 displaced people in nine ZMPP sites, and 2,850 meals to 30 patients in Médecin Sans Frontières (MSF) hospitals in the capital. The WFP also distributed 1,380 hot meals to people repatriated from the Dominican Republic, and 110 people also received 1.5 tons of food aid in Jérémie in the Grand'Anse region. 

Meanwhile, according to GardaWorld's weekly report covering the first week of June, the slight improvement in security has enabled the WFP to gain access to areas of Port-au-Prince, such as Cité Soleil and the area around Toussaint Louverture International Airport, previously blocked by gangs since the escalation of violence in March. 

Based on the analysis of food security conditions, FEWS NET then assesses the extent to which households are able to meet their minimum caloric needs. This analysis converges evidence of food security conditions with available direct evidence of household-level food consumption and livelihood change; FEWS NET also considers available area-level evidence of nutritional status and mortality, with a focus on assessing if these reflect the physiological impacts of acute food insecurity rather than other non-food-related factors. Ultimately, FEWS NET uses the globally recognized five-phase Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale to classify current acute food insecurity outcomes. In addition, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of ongoing humanitarian food assistance.

ZMPP and Cité Soleil: The food and nutrition security situation in the metropolitan area of Port-au-Prince, particularly in Cité Soleil and Croix-des-Bouquets, is strongly affected by insecurity, mainly due to armed conflicts between various groups. These conflicts disrupt the food and nutrition supply chain, cause population displacement, reduce agricultural production, and reduce households' ability to meet their basic needs. As a result, both global and severe acute malnutrition rates are high. In Cité Soleil, the rate of global acute malnutrition (GAM) is about 5 percent, and the rate of severe acute malnutrition is set at 2.13 percent, slightly exceeding the emergency threshold of 2 percent set by the World Health Organization (WHO). Limited access to safe water and sanitation, as well as frequent cholera outbreaks, exacerbate this crisis. Children under five are particularly vulnerable, with high rates of diarrhea, malaria, and acute respiratory infections, exacerbated by the gradual closure of health institutions and declining coverage of health interventions. Persistent food insecurity, fueled by the economic crisis and climatic shocks, also contributes to malnutrition in this region. Thus, to access food and protect their livelihoods, poor and very poor households adopt crisis and emergency strategies such as begging, migration, withdrawing children from school and juvenile delinquency. Thus, the ZMPP continues to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity as a whole, while Cité Soleil and pockets of very poor households located in other communes of the area, plagued by gang violence, continue to face acute Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food insecurity.

North-West HT01 (including Baie-de-Henne, Môle Saint-Nicolas, Bombardopolis): Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in the North-West HT01 area with groups of households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in the communes of Baie-de-Henne, Bombardopolis, Jean-Rabel, in addition to the communes of Bassin-Bleu and La Tortue. These regions have borne the brunt of the lean season, especially the high cost of basic foodstuffs and public transport. In addition, the delay in the rainy season has impacted the start of spring activities, in particular ploughing and planting operations, which were initiated at the end of May. Usually, such activities generate income for agricultural workers who are in the poorer category. This results in a drop in demand for farm workers in the area, leading to below-average incomes for this category. 

The Southern region (HT01, HT07, HT08): The region is hard hit, on the one hand, by general inflation and, on the other hand, by the influx of IDPs fleeing violence in Port-au-Prince. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity persists in these livelihood areas, despite the spring season being able to start in time, forecasting near-normal spring harvests due to normal conditions. According to the IHSI, the Southern region had the highest inflation rate in April, at 28.7 percent, even compared with the gang-violence-plagued ZMPP, while the national average was 27.6 percent. This is due in particular to the high costs of transporting goods (by sea or land) because of the armed gangs controlling various segments of the national road number 2 leading to this region and by imposing illegal passage fees on carriers. These transport costs are therefore reflected in the prices of basic food and non-food products in the region, at all levels of the distribution chain. 

At the same time, the Southern region is hosting the highest proportion of displaced people or families fleeing Port-au-Prince as a result of armed gang violence. According to the IOM's latest report on the situation of IDPs in Haiti, the Southern region has seen the biggest increase in the number of IDPs hosted: nearly half (47 percent) of IDPs in the country are located in this region. Their presence is straining the livelihoods of host families, who are forced to adopt negative crisis coping strategies.

For the rest of the country, the residual impact of the lean season is palpable. Spring harvests are not yet fully underway, and high prices for local and imported food staples persist, despite the stability of the exchange rate and its year-on-year appreciation. In addition, delays in planting in some areas and the decrease in the amount of land planted compared to the average, as well as the low level of household income, contribute to the deterioration in the availability and accessibility of food compared to the previous period (April/May). The persistent socio-political crisis and insecurity, compromising the economic stability of the country, are among the exacerbating factors contributing to the food insecurity situation across the nation. Poor and very poor households, which usually depend on the sale of their harvests or labor, are using crisis coping strategies to offset some of the food shortages caused by the fall in purchasing power. Those who derive their income from the sale of agricultural and fishing labor are turning to other activities to meet their needs, such as non-agricultural work (such as laundry and domestic work in the city). These households could also adopt negative crisis coping strategies, such as intensifying the production and sale of charcoal, in order to maintain an acceptable level of food consumption. As a result, these areas are currently in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). 

The next step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to develop evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security conditions. This includes hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will affect the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions on factors that are expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions underpin the “most likely” scenario. The sequence of making assumptions is important; primary assumptions (e.g., expectations pertaining to weather) must be developed before secondary assumptions (e.g., expectations pertaining to crop or livestock production). Key assumptions that underpin this analysis, and the key sources of evidence used to develop the assumptions, are listed below.

National assumptions 

• Above-average rainfall is forecast from June to January 2025, accompanied by high temperatures and erratic rainfall that could reduce soil moisture during the initial phenological stages of crop growth. In addition, the above-average hurricane season expected this year could result in more than five major hurricanes, potentially affecting Haiti, including the Southern region, North-West, and West.
• Harvests in the spring and autumn agricultural seasons of 2024 are expected to be below the national average due to irregular soil evapotranspiration caused by erratic rainfall and high temperatures, as well as reduced access to certain agricultural areas caused by insecurity. 
• A slow and ineffective deployment of the foreign peacekeeping force could maintain the status quo of the current climate of insecurity until September, with insignificant improvements expected from October 2024 to January 2025.
• According to the World Bank, a sixth consecutive year of negative growth in 2024 (-1.8 percent) is expected due to the tense security environment.
• Month-on-month inflation, up since January 2024, is likely to continue over the outlook period.
• The prices of most imported products (rice, wheat flour, edible oil) monitored by FEWS NET will be higher than the average for the last two years (2022 to 2023), despite the appreciation of the gourde exchange rate. 
• A significant decline in imports of rice, wheat, wheat flour, and pasta compared to the five-year average is expected during the outlook period. Imports of wheat flour are expected to fall by more than 90 percent, those of pasta by more than 65 percent, those of wheat by about 20 percent, and those of rice by about 5 percent.  
• The supply of urban markets, especially the market of Croix-des-Bossales, is expected to remain disrupted due to insecurity related to the presence of gangs on national roads, as well as by the control exercised by the latter in Port-au-Prince. This situation will continue to limit the movement of goods between the major cities of the country. Other markets will have to be supplied with local or regional products. Border markets (Ouanaminthe in the Northeast, Anse-A-Pitre in the Southeast, and Hinche in the Center) will have to be normally supplied with products from the Dominican Republic during the outlook period.
• Agricultural household income will be below the five-year average, mainly due to the high cost of inputs, the scarcity and high cost of agricultural labor, and persistent distortions in the distribution chain due to insecurity. In addition, migration to the Dominican Republic, affected by mass deportations and voluntary departures, will continue to provide below-normal incomes due to reduced employment opportunities. However, a recent 37.5 percent increase in net private transfers could indicate a growing trend for this year, especially during the reopening of classes in September and the end-of-year festivities in December.

Emergency food assistance

According to the forecasts of the Food Security Cluster until September 2024, the estimated total number of beneficiaries of emergency food assistance would be less than 670,000 people. A significant proportion, about 70 percent of this assistance, would be concentrated in the Grand'Anse department. However, due to the continuing challenges of targeting when distributing food aid, as well as the relatively small and varied quantity of such assistance, it is anticipated that levels of humanitarian food assistance will remain modest throughout the analysis period, with no change in the classification phases in any department.

Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET is then able to project acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs throughout the projection period. Similar to the analysis of current acute food insecurity outcomes, FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance. 

ZMPP/Cité Soleil: In the ZMPP, the current security situation will remain stable until September due to the slow and ineffective deployment of the foreign peacekeeping force. A gradual resumption of informal activities in the lower part of the city remains possible from October to January, due to a larger number of foreign peacekeeping forces and better control over the strategies of armed groups over time. Thus, the ZMPP will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) throughout the outlook period, but the number of households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) may decrease between October 2024 and January 2025. The commune of Cité Soleil and pockets of very poor households located in other neighborhoods of the metropolitan area, plagued by violence and controlled by gangs, Bas de Delmas, Carrefour, Croix-des-Bouquets, in particular, face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. The emergency situation will continue from October to January 2025, despite a certain income stimulus linked to the end-of-year festivities.

The North-West HT01, in particular the Baie de Henne, Môle Saint-Nicolas, and Bombardopolis communes: The prospect of near-average spring (albeit late) and summer/fall harvests means that the Môle Saint-Nicolas district, in the lower North-West,  could see a slight improvement in terms of food insecurity. For a short time, this will increase local availability, influencing prices downward. In addition, the summer/fall and winter planting operations may give rise to a new demand for agricultural workers, which may generate income. This improvement will not, however, allow the area to fill the production and income gaps related to the spring season. It will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) throughout the outlook period. It should also be noted that Baie-de-Henne, Bombardopolis, and La Tortue will have groups of households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), as they still have to resort to negative emergency coping strategies. 

The Southern region (HT01, HT07, HT08): Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist throughout the outlook period, despite the slight improvement expected from July in the availability of local agricultural products from spring harvests such as beans, maize, and rice. Local food availability will increase slightly, which will likely influence prices downward. However, the Southern region will continue to suffer the effects of inflation and, above all, the influx of IDPs fleeing the violence in Port-au-Prince. From early March to early June, the number of IDPs in the Southern region increased by 130 percent. This increase has raised the share of IDPs from the Southern region in the national total from 32 percent to almost 50 percent, according to the IOM. Mainly hosted by host families, these IDPs have exacerbated the economic challenges of poor and very poor households already suffering from food shortages. The current climate of insecurity suggests a reduced likelihood of IDPs returning to their homes in the coming months, thus maintaining continued pressure on these households already vulnerable to natural disasters, inflation, and lack of employment opportunities, which are unlikely to improve the food security status of poor and very poor households in the area. 

For the rest of the country: The period from October to January coincides with the summer/autumn harvests (maize, peas, roots and tubers, among others) in November in the humid and semi-humid mountains (Arniquet, Beaumont, among others) and, also with the start of the winter season in the irrigated plains and semi-humid mountains (Les Cayes, Torbeck, Saint-Louis du Sud, Cam Perin, Chantale). Moreover, the end-of-year period usually leads to non-agricultural income-generating activities such as casual labor, petty trade, and the sale of charcoal in urban areas, alongside the generally increasing remittances from abroad during this holiday season. Nevertheless, income from labor and the sale of seasonal agricultural produce will remain below average due to the economic, socio-political, and security shocks experienced during the year 2024. The rising cost of inputs and the insecurity preventing farmers from selling their commodities will leave them with insufficient capacity to plant land normally, hire farm workers, or buy inputs. At the same time, the purchasing power of total income from non-agricultural activities, even in the context of the end-of-year festivities, will be lower than normal, given the widespread inflation, especially in food, which characterizes the Haitian economy. As a result, poor households will not have the purchasing power to meet their minimum kilocalorie requirements, further reducing the amount of kilocalories consumed by poor and very poor households. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will generally be observed across the country. Some households will be able to move into Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through seasonal improvements in local food availability, but not in sufficient numbers to change the phase classification at the area level.

While FEWS NET’s projections are considered the “most likely” scenario, there is always a degree of uncertainty in the assumptions that underpin the scenario. This means food security conditions and their impacts on acute food security may evolve differently than projected. FEWS NET issues monthly updates to its projections, but decision makers need advance information about this uncertainty and an explanation of why things may turn out differently than projected. As such, the final step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to briefly identify key events that would result in a credible alternative scenario and significantly change the projected outcomes. FEWS NET only considers scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurrence.

National 

Rapid and effective progress in the full deployment of the foreign peacekeeping force.

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: At the national level, the rapid and effective advancement of the full deployment of the foreign peacekeeping force could greatly contribute to limiting levels of violence against the population and creating a secure environment in general. This will allow normal commercial activities and even the organization of free elections. This would lead to a reduction in households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3), especially in urban and peri-urban areas.

Major hurricanes in vulnerable areas of agricultural production: South, South-East, Nippes, Grand'Anse, West, North-West.

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Major hurricanes would lead to flooding, devastating existing crops, sweeping away livestock, and causing damage to critical infrastructure (roads, bridges, water supply and sanitation systems, and agricultural infrastructure). These consequences would lead to considerable economic losses for farmers and create food shortages in the affected communities. This could increase health risks by promoting the spread of waterborne diseases, contaminating drinking water sources, and creating conditions conducive to disease vectors. The livelihoods of poorer households would be severely affected, potentially leading to a significant increase in the number of households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in vulnerable areas such as the Southern Peninsula (Nippes, Grand'Anse and South), the South-East, the West, and the North-West.

West HT07 Bean, banana, and petty trade: Croix-des-Bouquets Arrondissement and Cité Soleil commune (Figure 8)

Reason for choosing this area: There are several areas of concern in Haiti. Although livelihoods in Haiti can be disrupted by natural disasters (cyclones, floods, drought, plagues), they have been hardest hit by the security crisis in the Haitian capital. Admittedly, all livelihood zones are experiencing an acute crisis situation. Nevertheless, the ZMPP is the main focus of the insecurity affecting the country, with numerous consequences. Displacement, violence, and looting, among other factors, cripple the informal livelihood activities that are crucial to the poor and very poor. It is therefore important to consider the food security situation of very poor households in this area, the Arrondissement of Croix-des-Bouquets as well as the commune of Cité Soleil, the most affected by this insecurity.

In the West zone HT07, Croix-des-Bouquets Arrondissement, spring agricultural activities did not take place as usual due to insecurity. Farmers have fled the area, leading to a significant reduction in the amount of land planted and agricultural activities in general compared to normal. In this context, income from the sale of agricultural produce (beans, bananas, vegetable produce, sweet potatoes, maize, and sorghum) and agricultural labor remains below average. 

According to the survey of off-farm sources of income, the ability of the wealthiest households to hire workers is reduced as the market shrinks for selling their products, due to insecurity and higher transport costs. The nominal agricultural daily wage has increased but has failed to compensate for the impact of rising prices and the loss of purchasing power, due to a significant fall in demand for agricultural workers, which remains well below average. 

In Cité Soleil, as in all of Port-au-Prince's shantytowns, the main sources of income for the very poor are still petty trade (over 40 percent of their income), occasional work (around 38 percent) and the sale of goods on the street (street vendors; 15 percent). Currently, these sources of income are still below average, exacerbated by the escalations of violence that have ransacked the Haitian capital for months, impacting informal income-generating activities throughout the area, as well as in downtown Port-au-Prince. As a result, the incomes of poorer citizens are impacted in two ways. Firstly, the insecurity has hit informal street activities hard, and many in this category have had to leave their areas of residence. Secondly, the high level of commodity prices, combined with the slowdown in demand for goods in the capital, is eroding the purchasing power of poor and very poor households in the area.

As a result, local food availability is limited to a few seasonal products such as legumes, sweet potatoes, bananas, and also mangoes, which supply the markets. Imported food products such as rice and wheat flour, among others, are bought at the market and remain predominant. Difficult to access markets due to insecurity, high food prices (37.5 percent year-on-year according to the latest IHSI report published last April), below-average incomes, and large family size (more than six people), prevent poorer citizens from accessing basic foodstuffs. Very poor households then limit their consumption to one daily meal, with a reduction in the quality of the diet. 

According to FEWS NET's May 2024 analysis of the results, the situation remains all the more worrying, with survival deficits widening among the very poor. The results of this analysis showed a large deficit in food consumption and livelihood protection for very poor and poor households in the area. 

Indeed, the monthly cost of the minimum quantity of kilocalories consumed per family (2,100 per person per day), which was 6,300 and 6,500 gourdes in 2020 and 2021, respectively, rose to almost 15,000 gourdes on average in 2023, and is already approaching 17,000 in the first four months of 2024. Rice alone accounts for 42 percent of the cost of the diet of poorer households on average, followed by wheat flour (more than 18 percent), and black peas (15 percent). In this context, the high level of prices of such products, especially rice (Figure 9), only further increases the food deficit at the level of poor and very poor families.

Faced with this situation, households in the West HT07 area resort to negative coping strategies such as the sale of productive assets (work materials, production equipment) and migration to other regions in order to meet their basic food needs. Others, particularly poorer citizens, such as those in Cornillon/Grand Bois, are unable to meet their basic food needs and have a significant food consumption deficit, even with the adoption of emergency strategies. In Cité Soleil, households are not only facing insecurity but also a high prevalence of cholera and acute malnutrition. They are also adopting emergency strategies, such as begging, sending children to eat elsewhere, placing children in domestic service and withdrawing children from school. As a result, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are maintained for the month of June.

Between June and September 2024, the situation observed during the current period is not expected to change. On the one hand, spring crops are unlikely to succeed given the insecurity-related constraints faced by farmers. Production levels will therefore be below normal. There will be no spring harvest in July, as the season has not unfolded normally. Thus, the launch of the summer/fall season in July and August is already compromised. 

Therefore, for the West zone HT07 and Cité Soleil, food consumption will still be based primarily on purchases at markets. In this context, access will always be difficult, given the current level of food inflation and the low incomes of poor and very poor households. Consumption deficits may widen in the absence of harvests, and households will have to rely more heavily on the markets for supplies.

Insecurity will continue to limit income-generating activities of better-off households, who will not have the capacity to hire workers during the summer/fall and winter seasons. Petty trade may not be able to operate normally in this volatile environment due to insecurity and the high cost of living. Charcoal sales will continue to behave normally but the income generated will not be able to compensate for the decrease in the purchasing power of very poor households. Regardless of any external support, households will engage in negative coping strategies. Crisis activities include the sale of productive assets (work materials, equipment), while emergency activities include begging, sending children to eat elsewhere, placing children in domestic service, and taking children out of school, which is particularly prevalent in Cornillon/Grand Bois. These negative strategies are still observed in Cité Soleil, indicators of an Emergency (IPC Phase 4) classification.

Between October 2024 and January 2025, very poor and poor households will still be vulnerable to annual livelihood protection deficits. In the Croix-des-Bouquets Arrondissement (HT07), the effects of insecurity and the reduction in cultivated land will contribute further to the deterioration in the food security situation and household livelihoods. In addition, the poorer households earn their living from the sale of farm labor. However, the agriculture, goods, and production infrastructures of the households mainly affected are unable to function normally. This therefore harms the demand for farm workers, and therefore their income. As such, the summer/autumn harvests, expected to be below average in November to December, will contribute little (less than 15 percent) to the food supply for very poor and poor households. 

Other local seasonal products such as roots and tubers, especially bananas, can contribute to household consumption, but cannot compensate for the lack of cereals (rice, maize) and sources of protein (beans, pulses). 

Food consumption will still be heavily dependent on purchases at markets, where rice, flour, and pasta will always be in high demand. With persistent inflation and significant declines in income, poorer citizens will find it difficult to obtain these commodities. In the absence of food assistance, they may suffer from food deficits observed in May and June.

In Cité Soleil, petty trade and the sale of charcoal will continue to operate normally, generating near-average income, especially with the end-of-year festivities and a possible improvement in security conditions. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will persist in the HT07 West zone and Croix-des-Bouquets district, with an increase in the number of people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4); Cité Soleil will continue to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4).