High prices for staple grains limit food access

Download Report

After another year of subsistence staple grain crop losses, many areas of the Dry Corridor will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through May 2026. Between November and February, the poorest households increase their income through temporary work on coffee farms in Guatemala and Honduras; however, the near-total losses of the primera and postrera maize and bean harvests, high food prices, and repayment of accumulated debts will prevent substantial improvements in household food consumption. To meet their basic food needs, households will resort to strategies such as reducing portion sizes and atypical migration.
In the rest of the country, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected between November 2025 and January 2026. Average staple-grain harvests and seasonal employment on commercial farms (e.g., for coffee and sugarcane) will support increased incomes and improved food consumption. However, households will continue to face high food prices. Beginning in February, staple-grain reserves will be exhausted, incomes will decline, and reliance on food purchases will intensify. The poorest households that used part of their income to repay debts will maintain consumption of basic foods by employing negative coping strategies, falling back into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through May 2026.
Maize and bean prices typically decline between September and October with the arrival of primera-cycle harvests to markets; however, in October they remained 5 to 15 percent above the five-year average, putting pressure on the purchasing power of the poorest households. Markets have remained supplied through formal and informal imports and grain stocks carried over from previous harvests. Only by mid-October did fresh grain begin entering markets, slowly and intermittently. The persistence of high prices is due to irregular supplies of domestic products caused by delays and damage to primera planting.
In October, the cold-front season began, forecast within typical ranges. In the western region, this translates into low temperatures and strong winds, while in the northeast and the Northern Transversal Strip it is characterized by rainfall. Heavy rains in the north of the country have already caused damage to homes, infrastructure, and crops. By late October, maize and bean crops were at different stages of development. Rainfall distribution and temperatures will continue to influence the development of postrera staple-grain crops — planted late due to delays in the primera cycle — as well as vegetables in the highlands, which are especially vulnerable to low temperatures.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Guatemala Key Message Update November 2025: High prices for staple grains limit food access, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.