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Food access will improve seasonally given a reduction in basic grain prices and the beginning of the high season for agricultural labor demand. However, households in the dry corridor with Primera crop losses and households whose main income comes from the coffee sector where there are low sales prices, still maintain a minimum food consumption and reduced purchasing power, limiting the purchase of non-food items.
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Postrera crops in the east, mainly bean crops, are in fruit-bearing cycle, with average harvests expected at the end of November. The second season of basic grains in the surplus areas of the Northern Transversal Strip and Petén began with a favorable rain forecast for the development of the crops; however, the presence of irregularities that could cause targeted flooding is not ruled out.
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The continuous supply of grains from the recent Primera harvest has resulted in a reduction in maize and bean prices, which will continue a downward trend given the proximity with the next harvest in northern Guatemala. During recent months, black bean prices have shown a considerable drop, recording their lowest price in the last five years.
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The areas with Primera crop losses will remain in Stress (IPC, Phase 2), and the rest of the country will face Minimum (IPC, Phase 1) food insecurity until January 2019. However, there are groups of households within the Stress areas that are in Crisis (IPC, Phase 3); this number of households will increase as the lean season progresses.
This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.