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- In the Dry Corridor, areas of Alta Verapaz, and the Western Highlands, a growing proportion of the poorest households will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between May and September. These outcomes are driven by an early lean season characterized by prolonged dependence on markets, above-average food and transportation prices, and a seasonal decline in rural incomes. Delays in the typical agricultural cycle due to irregular rainfall and high temperatures are resulting in irregular demand for planting-related labor, further reducing incomes. These conditions will lead households to adopt negative coping strategies such as atypical labor migration and reducing food portions to meet their minimum food needs.
- Across much of the rest of the country, poor households will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from May through September, supported by limited staple grain reserves and incomes that are still sufficient to cover their minimum food consumption needs. However, high food and transportation costs will continue to exert pressure on households’ purchasing power. As the lean season progresses, a portion of poor households will resort to negative coping strategies such as reducing food consumption or seeking work at nontraditional times and locations, causing them to fall into Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
- Rising fuel prices continue to increase transportation and food costs, reducing household purchasing power during the lean season. Driven primarily by increases in gasoline, diesel, propane gas, and transportation costs, the inflation rate reached 3.24 percent in April, reflecting an increase of 0.74 percentage points from the previous month and 1.77 percentage points compared with the previous year. In April, regular gasoline and diesel prices increased by 12 and 17 percent, respectively, compared with March 2026. On May 1, an emergency support decree took effect, establishing a subsidy of 8 GTQ/gallon of diesel and 5 GTQ/gallon of gasoline. Compared with the April average, as of May 12, gasoline prices with the subsidy showed no change, while diesel prices recorded a 14 percent decrease.
- At the beginning of the season in May, rainfall remained below average across most of the country, particularly in the Dry Corridor, delaying the start of the primera planting season. Combined with above-average temperatures since the beginning of the year, these conditions have reduced soil moisture in the Dry Corridor, constraining the establishment of the primera agricultural cycle. In rainfed farming areas, planting has not yet begun, unlike in irrigated areas. As a result, many smallholder farmers continue to wait for the onset of rainfall before beginning planting activities. The delay is expected to increase the risk of below-average yields from the primera harvest for subsistence producers and to reduce labor demand for planting, crop maintenance, and harvesting activities, limiting income-earning opportunities for households that depend on agricultural income.
Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Guatemala Key Message Update May - September 2026: High food and fuel prices continue pressuring household purchasing power, 2026.
This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.