Progression of the lean season accentuated by high food prices

• In rural areas, all poorer households have now exhausted staple grain reserves from their own harvests, and from June until the next harvest, they will stock up on maize and beans from the markets. This year, due to the accumulation of previous shocks, households have no savings, and without these savings, their income from seasonal employment is minimal to cover their food needs as food, transportation, fuel, and fertilizer prices remain atypically high. In the coming months, more rural households will resort to using negative coping strategies to purchase food, resulting in additional rural areas experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through September.

• In areas of the Dry Corridor, Altiplano, and Alta Verapaz, many households saw a premature start to the lean season. Low income due to the cutback of daily wage agricultural opportunities for staple crops, high debt burdens, a lack of savings, and high prices of staple grains have negatively affected access to food. This prolonged situation will force more households in these areas to employ crisis coping strategies, such as reducing food quantity and selling productive assets to feed themselves, which will classify them as in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) throughout the analysis period.

• In April, overall year-on-year inflation was 8.32 percent, while monthly inflation was stable. Representing a divergence from previous months, when food expenditure showed monthly increases at the national level, it was the transportation expenditure division that registered the highest increases, while food prices remained stable – even registering a drop compared to April of last year. However, it is outside the central region and the capital where the highest inflation rates are being registered: Region II (Alta Verapaz and Baja Verapaz) had overall year-on-year inflation of 12.40 percent, and Region VII (Huehuetenango and Quiché) of 11.72 percent. Maize and bean prices, despite showing little month-on-month change, remain 46 percent and 40 percent above the five-year average, respectively.

• The forecast of an El Niño phenomenon through the end of the year increases the probability of below-average accumulated rainfall and erratic distribution of rainfall in time and space, which could negatively affect crop planting and development. Meanwhile, the establishment of plantings is progressing in the country. While some areas have already been sown (including in the west, east, and on the south coast), in some other areas (the Northern Transversal Strip and the north), lands are being cleaned and prepared, and plantings are just starting. In addition, according to INSIVUMEH (the national meteorological service), between July and August, El Niño will also increase the probability of a more intense and prolonged canicula dry spell than normal.

Recommended Citation: FEWS NET. Guatemala Key Message Update, May 2023: Progression of the lean season accentuated by high food prices, 2023.