A decrease in planted areas is expected due to high fertilizer costs

Poor households in the Dry Corridor and areas affected by Hurricanes Eta and Iota will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until September, as they entered the lean season prematurely and will have to rely on the market for longer than usual. These households will use coping strategies, such as adjusting the amount of food in their diet, resorting to loans and credit, migrating atypically and selling their productive assets, as they face high food prices. As the lean season progresses, most urban households and some rural households will continue to have Minimal (IPC Phase 1) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Other households will fall into Crisis (IPC Phase 3), only managing to cover their basic food needs through the use of negative coping strategies that put their livelihoods at risk.

With the onset of rains in the different regions of the country, planting is continuing, with households using purchased seed or seed from past harvests. Although the first season of average rainfall is expected to favor crop development, the high cost of agricultural inputs is restricting planting. Due to these costs, farmers have been faced with the decision to reduce planted areas, reduce the use of fertilizers, buy other low-quality chemicals, not use agricultural inputs or not plant at all. This situation is expected to result in a drop in production volumes for the primera season.

Household purchasing power remains lower than normal due to high food and transportation prices. In April 2022, basic food basket products, such as edible oils, sugar, and bread, increased by between 11 and 28 percent compared to April 2021. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the prices of 100 kg of white maize and beans have increased by 44 percent and 26 percent, respectively, compared to the five-year average. One of the main reasons for these high prices is the cost of transportation, which is passed on to food prices. In April, the price of diesel was 73 percent higher than in April 2021 and almost double the five-year average.

In early May, the restrictions implemented to reduce the spread of COVID-19 were modified. Following adjustments to the parameters for each alert level, just one municipality remains on red alert, the number of municipalities on orange and yellow alert has increased and there are now even some municipalities on green alert. In addition to eliminating restrictions on gatherings, the obligation to wear masks and ensure social distancing only remains in red alert areas. These measures are expected to promote the recovery of jobs linked to the provision of personal services and trade activities that were still limited by the restrictions.