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Possible damages due to irregular rainfall, despite forecasts for favorable accumulation

  • Key Message Update
  • Guatemala
  • May 2017
Possible damages due to irregular rainfall, despite forecasts for favorable accumulation

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • Due to changes in the expected evolution of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the Americas, forecasts for cumulative rainfall in 2017 in the northern part of Central America have improved. The most likely scenario is for neutral ENSO conditions throughout the period, with average to above-average cumulative precipitation. However, there is an elevated risk of extreme rainfall events, as well as dry spells, including the canicular period in July/August.

    • Throughout most of Guatemala’s Dry Corridor, small-scale farmers have experienced at least three consecutive years with poor production during the Primera season, with near-total losses in 2015 due to the El Niño-induced drought. This has had an adverse impact on local labor demand, reducing income-generating options for the poorest households. Since 2012, production in the coffee sector has been affected by high prevalence of coffee rust, which has reduced the demand for day labor, which represents one of the most important sources of employment for many of the poorest households in the western highlands and other parts of the Dry Corridor.

    • Many of the households affected by damages to their crops and low income generation in 2016, and who suffered poor yields during the three previous staple production seasons, will enter progressively into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until the beginning of the Primera harvests in August. Food security outcomes during the final months of 2017 and beginning of 2018 will depend partially on the development of the current rainy season. It is therefore important to continue to monitor the distribution and quantity of rainfall during the period.

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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