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Primera crop at risk, despite weakening El Niño

  • Key Message Update
  • Guatemala
  • May 2016
Primera crop at risk, despite weakening El Niño

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • In parts of the dry corridor, Primera crops will be affected by the late and irregular start of the rainy season. Additionally, forecasts indicate a weakened El Niño phenomenon as well as an increased likelihood of below-average rainfall this season and unusually high temperatures. Many small farmers do not have access to agricultural inputs and technical assistance, which will contribute to lower than normal crop yields. There is the potential that a La Niña phenomenon will be established during the second part of the rainy season. A La Niña will increase accumulated rainfall for the Postrera season.

    • The poorest households in areas of the Western Temperature Plateau have been in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) for more than a year. Factors driving these outcomes include significant crop loss in 2015 due severe drought and limited income-generating options, especially those associated with coffee. Since no new grain harvests are expected and continued limited employment options are expected, it is anticipated that in the absence of emergency assistance, poor households in these areas will continue to be in Crisis until the next grain harvest in November/December.

    • Current food shortages are more severe than usual after extensive losses during the 2015 season and limited access to markets and jobs. The poor households in the eastern region of the country experienced a deterioration in food availability and quality after implementing negative coping strategies, resulting in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Municipalities of the departments of Chiquimula, Baja Verapaz and Jutiapa will receive WFP cash and food assistance to help mitigate past shocks, resulting in Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes until August, in the presence of assistance.

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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