Delay in staple grain harvest will extend the lean season

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At the end of 2024, FEWS NET projected Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes from January to May 2025 in various areas of the Dry Corridor, Alta Verapaz, and the Altiplano, with 1.5 to 1.99 million people in need of food assistance. The poorest households in these areas had experienced at least two seasons of staple grain crop failures or significantly below-average harvests (primera, postrera, and the only Altiplano cycle in 2023 and 2024). Despite average income levels from seasonal agricultural labor (October 2024–February 2025), only limited improvements in nutrition were expected due to the deterioration of livelihoods coupled with years of atypical and prolonged dependence on food purchases. At the start of the lean season in March, more households were expected to resort to unsustainable coping strategies to feed themselves, such as atypical labor migration and debt.
Currently, at the peak of the lean season (between July and August), more households are expected to experience significant consumption gaps, as reserves and incomes dwindle while already high food prices rise seasonally. Furthermore, the late onset of the rainy season delayed the planting of staple grains for the primera season in most parts of the country. Consequently, staple grain crops will not be harvested until October, extending food purchases by an additional month. While the high seasonal availability of labor opportunities for cash crop harvesting is expected to increase income for the poorest households from October 2025 to early 2026, only marginal improvements in food consumption are anticipated. The income will be used to pay off debts incurred during previous seasons, when delays, replanting, and seed loss resulted in below-average labor demand for staple grains.
This year, the irregular onset of the rains and high temperatures delayed the start of maize and bean planting by 20 to 40 days, especially in the north, central zone, and the Dry Corridor and Altiplano areas. The effects of the late start to the season, the forecasted high temperatures, and erratic and below-average rainfall, especially in the north and northwest, are expected to negatively affect yields and delay postrera plantings. The limited rainfall, heat, and loss of soil moisture may affect other rainfed crops and wild food development, as well as coffee and cardamom farms, which are important sources of food and income for low-income rural families.
Staple grain prices have remained stable, although above average. Currently, markets are supplied with small volumes of domestic grain from the last postrera harvest, but principally with tariff-free imported product provided by the government to maintain price levels. Seasonally, prices begin to decline as the primera harvests reach the markets. However, this year, the late and staggered arrival of fresh grain could prevent an immediate price reduction; prices are expected to experience some declines and stability, but will remain above average, similar to prices last year.
From July 8-30, the Coordinator for Disaster Reduction (CONRED) has reported a series of more than 1,000 earthquakes of varying magnitude. Guatemala City, Sacatepéquez, Escuintla, and Jutiapa are the most affected departments. Given the severity of the impact in some areas, several families abandoned their homes, were taken to shelters, and received humanitarian assistance. Some roads were damaged, briefly hindering access to food and drinking water in the most affected areas.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Guatemala Key Message Update July 2025: Delay in staple grain harvest will extend the lean season, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.