Lean season progression marked by high food prices

Download Report

Households in the Dry Corridor, Alta Verapaz, and Altiplano areas have been market dependent for access to staple grains for a prolonged period of time due to crop failures in previous cycles. Their purchasing capacity has decreased due to lower incomes from reduced hiring of local labor for agricultural activities linked to the cultivation of staple grains, as well as high food prices. During the ongoing lean season, these households will continue to resort to coping strategies including reducing the amount of food consumed, atypical migration of more household members, and sale of productive assets to meet essential food needs, driving Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes until September 2024.
Beginning in October, the demand for seasonal agricultural labor increases for various cash crops, such as coffee and sugarcane; production and therefore employment opportunities are expected to remain at average levels. Agricultural day laborers typically migrate to be employed in the major production areas for periods of time ranging from two to six months. Additionally, staple grain harvests are expected between October and February which, although delayed and below average, will allow some households to reduce reliance on markets and food purchases for one or two months. Improved food availability and access will allow many households to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. However, for many poor households in the Dry Corridor and Alta Verapaz, the income earned will be insufficient to improve their diets and they will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until January 2025.
Markets are supplied with domestic maize and beans stored from recent harvests and imports. Despite the opening of tariff-free import quotas for these foods, maize and bean prices both remain above the five-year average. In June, the price of maize showed a slight reduction compared to last year but remains 15 percent above the five-year average. The price of black beans remains 15 and 43 percent higher than last year and the five-year average, respectively. In June, headline inflation decreased compared to last month and last year; however, the food division has the highest increase. Damage to various crops caused by irregular weather and damage to communication routes are have contributed to the increase in food prices.
After a delay of more than 30 days in rainfall onset and subsequent planting, maize crops were at different stages of development nationwide by July 1, , with the first vegetative stages most prevalent. By the end of June, some areas of the southern coast in particular were already reporting some damage to crops due to excess rainfall. The forecast of above-average rainfall could result in higher humidity conditions that favors the presence of pests and fungal diseases in crops that could affect harvest results.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Guatemala Key Message Update July 2024: Lean season progression marked by high food prices, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.