Persistently high food prices limit household purchasing power

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In the Dry Corridor, Alta Verapaz, and Altiplano regions, the poorest rural households will experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through January, as they will continue to adjust the quantity of food in their diets and resort to negative coping strategies to meet their essential food needs. Due to consecutive seasons of staple grain crop failures, prolonged reliance on purchasing food at high prices, and limited agricultural labor opportunities at the local level, these households will continue to spend a large portion of their income on food purchases. Despite a seasonal increase in demand for labor associated with various cash crops across different regions where households tend to migrate, increased incomes will not be sufficient to improve diets, as poor households will need to prioritize debt repayment and purchasing staple foods.
In many western, central, eastern, and southern areas, food security outcomes are expected to improve from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in September to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from October 2024 to January 2025. Although the lean season was extended into September due to delays in staple grain plantings, October harvests will begin providing households with access to maize and beans from their own production. Also, starting in October, households will migrate to other regions of the country for employment on cash crop farms such as coffee and sugarcane, which will increase agricultural labor opportunities for periods ranging from two to four months. Improved availability and access to food will enable households to improve their diets and limit the use of negative livelihood coping strategies.
Erratic rainfall and high temperatures have been a constant during August, causing diverse effects around the country, from heavy rainfall that has caused floods and landslides to dry soils that have affected crops. These conditions are expected to persist for the remainder of the primera season and may cause localized damage to staple grain crops that are in intermediate stages of development, particularly beans, given their susceptibility to pests and diseases caused by the possibility of high humidity in the coming months.
Persistently high food prices continue to put pressure on household purchasing power. In July, headline inflation increased compared to June 2024. The consumer price index showed a similar trend, with food expenses increasing well above other categories. In July 2024, the average wholesale price of white maize in the La Terminal market registered slight downward variations compared to last month and last year, showing trends towards stabilization but remaining above the five-year average. However, the price of beans continues to rise, affected by lower yields, higher production costs due to pests and diseases, and a decrease in production areas. Even though the government authorized duty-free imports of maize and beans, tariffs have continued to increase and, in line with seasonal trends, will continue to rise until the next harvest.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Guatemala Key Message Update August 2024: Persistently high food prices limit household purchasing power, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.