Guatemala
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- In October, widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity is present in the Dry Corridor, Alta Verapaz, and the Highlands. Irregular and scarce rainfall during 2025 delayed staple grain harvests, forcing poor households to depend on markets for longer and accumulate debts to satisfy their food needs. Grain availability from own production and seasonal employment for commercial crops will allow many areas to improve their food consumption, classifying them as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) between November and January. However, areas where smallholder farmers suffered considerable losses of subsistence crops will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
- As staple grain reserves and seasonal agricultural employment sources diminish at the end of the harvest, the poorest households will experience a decline in their food security. From February to May, a return to more widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected. The poorest households with below normal harvests will have a premature start to the lean season and will depend on the market earlier than usual in the face of above average staple grain prices.
- FEWS NET estimates that the population in need of food assistance will be 1.5 to 1.99 million people between October and May. From November to January, the number of people in need would be at the lower end of the range, due to seasonal improvements driven by staple grain harvests and agricultural employment. Starting in February, as food availability and access decrease with the approach of the lean season, the population in need would gradually increase until reaching in May the upper limit of 1.5 to 1.99 million people.
- The Dry Corridor will continue to be the area of greatest concern, followed by Alta Verapaz and the Highlands. The poorest households in these areas have faced recurrent weather impacts that have caused below-average harvests and income and accumulated debt. For the third consecutive year, these conditions have deteriorated their livelihoods, limiting their recovery capacity. Prolonged dry periods and excessive rainfall have damaged subsistence production and raised staple grain prices, causing high indebtedness, reduction in the quantity of household food consumption, and atypical labor migration.
The analysis in this report is based on information available as of October 17, 2025.
Agriculture is a fundamental pillar of the national economy and of rural household economies in Guatemala. Agricultural activities are governed by weather patterns, primarily by the existence of two rainy seasons divided by a seasonal dry spell (Annex 3). These rains mark the beginning of planting, but irregularities in rainfall could delay planting and harvesting and promote the proliferation of pests and diseases. Smallholder farmers, who practice rainfed agriculture, mainly cultivate maize during the primera cycle and beans during the postrera cycle for their own consumption. In the Highlands region, a single annual cycle of staple grain planting is carried out, and in the northern region, the second cycle, postrera tardía, occurs somewhat later.
The hurricane season typically begins in June and ends in November, although in recent years it has extended through December. Excessive precipitation, accompanied by winds and lightning, causes flooding, river overflows, landslides, and damage to crops and infrastructure. One of the most intense seasons was recorded in late 2020, when two consecutive hurricanes, Eta and Iota, inflicted major damage to infrastructure, agriculture, and housing, causing the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people, mainly in the northern and northeastern areas of the country. In Alta Verapaz, in the area near the Polochic River, soil damage persists due to the amount of sand and sediment that covered the fertile land.
Peak income generation in rural areas is closely linked to seasonal production cycles. At the local level, activities linked to the production of staple grains, coffee, and cardamom are sources of income for day laborers and small producers who sell part or all of their harvests. From October to February/March, the harvest of commercial crops, such as sugar cane and coffee, increases migratory labor demand for poor rural households. The supply of temporary employment abroad also experiences peaks during these periods: to Mexico or Honduras on coffee and fruit plantations, among others. Dryness, frost, or excessive and/or irregular rainfall can harm these income sources. In recent years, variability in rainfall and rising temperatures have affected smallholder farmer coffee production, and low global prices have limited the commercialization of cardamom.
The lean season in rural areas is characterized by the depletion of household grain reserves from own production, reduced income-generating opportunities, and a seasonal increase in food prices. Staple grain prices tend to reach their peak between June and August when national harvests decline. In recent years, due to high production costs and weather impacts, national black bean production has decreased.
Migration to the United States has been both a response to and a factor of change in agricultural and economic conditions within Guatemala. Remittances have become a crucial source of income, primarily for middle-income and better-off households. These flows stimulate local economies by facilitating household consumption and boosting labor demand in the agricultural and construction sectors. In 2025, migratory flows decreased considerably; however, remittance growth has remained stable. According to the World Bank, remittances increased by nearly 20 percent between January and August 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.
In mid-2020, significant increases in inflation were recorded due to the COVID-19 pandemic and its global effects. Starting in 2021, the increase in inflation intensified until reaching its highest point in February 2023 due to the rapid increase in international fertilizers and fuels prices. From that point, year-on-year inflation has decelerated, falling well below the official range of 3 to 5 percent. However, staple food prices remain above the five-year average.
Learn more
Follow these links for additional information:
- Latest Guatemala Food Security Outlook: October 2024 – May 2025
- Latest Guatemala Food Security Outlook Update: August 2025
Latest Guatemala Key Message Update: September 2025
- Overview of FEWS NET’s scenario development methodology
- FEWS NET’s approach to estimating the population in need
- Overview of the IPC and IPC-compatible analysis
Figure 1
Late onset and irregular rainfall distribution. Typically, the first rainy season is widespread across the country in May. This year, the rainy season began erratically, with scattered and light rainfall during May. It continued in June, however, with a delay of 10 to 30 days. Following the delayed start of the season, rainfall was scarce with seasonal accumulations (May – August) of 15-50 percent below the 2006-2020 average (Figure 1). Regarding the distribution of precipitation throughout the season, the season began in June, with above-average rainfall episodes, followed by a long period of considerably below average rainfall, particularly in the Dry Corridor, where more than 40 consecutive days without precipitation were recorded. The late and below-average rains affected the planting times for primera cycle staple grains and the availability of water for plant development. In the Dry Corridor, farmers planted 20 to 40 days later than normal, while in the rest of the country a delay of at least 10 days was experienced. Staple grain harvests that are usually done between August and September were not completed until late September and October.
The second rainy season that began in late September has also been characterized by an erratic distribution pattern. Episodes of heavy rainfall in short periods of time have caused flooding, soil saturation, and landslides. These impacts have caused moderate to severe damage to communication channels, temporarily interrupting the transport of cargo and people. This in turn has altered the economic dynamics of populations by affecting mobility to employment, food transportation from production areas to collection and markets, and market supply.
Above-average temperatures. High temperatures have persisted throughout the year. In Dry Corridor areas, soil temperatures reached more than 5 degrees Celsius above normal, leading to moisture loss in the soil and in the primera season maize and bean plants. Poor rains and accelerated moisture loss negatively impacted plant health and fostered the proliferation of pests. These conditions negatively affect the production of staple grains, especially for subsistence households that practice rainfed agriculture.
Figure 2
Source: FEWS NET with data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Planning Office (DIPLAN-MAGA)
Figure 3
Source: FEWS NET with data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Planning Office (DIPLAN-MAGA)
Humanitarian food assistance
There are projects by different governmental institutions and international organizations that include the delivery of humanitarian food assistance in various departments and municipalities of Guatemala. However, the scale of this assistance—both in terms of the number of beneficiaries and caloric content—is limited. Although this food assistance is likely contributing to mitigating food consumption deficits among directly benefited households in some municipalities, its coverage, less than 25 percent of the population, does not reach the thresholds established by IPC protocols to be considered in the mapping of food security outcomes.
In October, the delay in the staple grain harvest affects the national availability of grains from smallholder farmers’ own harvests, prolonging the lean season. Most poor rural households depend primarily on food purchases, and many resort to loans and credit to supplement their other income sources, resulting in widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity outcomes. The most affected areas are the Dry Corridor, Alta Verapaz, and the Altiplano, where several years of crop losses due to various weather impacts have eroded smallholder farmers’ capacity to cope with delays and partial or total losses of staple grain harvests. These households have accumulated high levels of debt, which reduces their ability to access food before the start of the harvest, therefore Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in a large number of areas.
The Dry Corridor was the area most affected by the delay and poor rainy season performance. In this area, damage to primera cycle staple grain crops is significant, particularly for the poorest households practicing rainfed agriculture who lost more than 70 percent of maize harvests and almost all bean harvests this season. The delay of the first planting and weather impacts, as well as high production costs (due to replanting and greater use of pesticides and fungicides), have caused demand for labor for postrera staple grain crops to decrease, and consequently income to fall for households that depend on agricultural day labor. In October, these households begin to migrate for employment in areas with large coffee and sugarcane production, but improvements in income are not immediate. Since last year, after a failed staple grain crop cycle, these households have depended on markets to obtain grains. Given that high food expenditure continues in October and these households have neither staple grain harvests nor normal income, they are using coping strategies such as purchasing on credit, reducing food portions, and atypically far migration in search of work to secure their basic food needs. In October, many of these areas are classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
In Alta Verapaz, because of the prolonged dry period and forest fires of 2024, poor households continue to bear the losses of staple grain harvests, as well as damage to cardamom, allspice, and coffee crops. Throughout the year, these households have depended on purchasing maize and beans in markets, for which they have incurred debts. This year, staple grain plantings were done later than normal, delaying the availability of their own harvests. Even though demand for temporary agricultural labor begins to increase in October, the delay in harvests and prolonged indebtedness does not allow these households to make substantial improvements in their food consumption. To ensure their food needs are met, households will resort to using strategies such as adjusting the amount of food and intensifying debt and migration; they remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in October.
In the Western Highlands region, the 2024 harvests that are typically obtained between December and February ended one to two months later than normal. Following below-normal staple grain production cycles due to weather irregularity, households have maintained a dependence on purchasing and debt to access food. In October, they begin to move outside their areas of residence to work in the large coffee productions within Guatemala and in Mexico. Meanwhile, they will continue to resort to credit, substitution of less preferred foods, reduction in the quantity of food, and atypical migration to meet their food needs. A portion of this area will be classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
- Irregular rainfall and high temperatures through the end of 2025 would increase the presence of pests and diseases in crops and would damage postrera and postrera tardía crops, particularly among smallholder farmers.
- Due to irregular weather conditions and the subsequent losses from the primera cycle, small farmers are likely to reduce their area planted with postrera beans so as not to risk their investment. Therefore, subsistence bean production will be below average, particularly in the Dry Corridor.
- The late start of planting for the single cycle in the Highlands and for postrera tardía could delay harvests and cause them to be below average for smallholder farmers.
- Due to losses from the primera cycle, the availability of maize and beans for consumption by poor households (reserves) would be lower than normal, which would cause households to resort to purchasing earlier than normal.
- National bean production is expected to be below average, similar to last year. In contrast, national maize production is expected to remain in average ranges, due to irrigation capacity and pest management among large commercial producers.
- To control the proliferation of fungal diseases and pests, farmers will increase the use of fertilizers and pesticides, raising farmers' production costs.
- Average rainfall levels are expected in the first months of 2026, but above-average temperatures could cause loss of soil moisture, which would delay primera plantings that typically take place in May.
- Late, staggered, and below-normal harvests will keep maize and bean prices around 5-15 percent above the five-year average, similar to that of 2024. Bean prices will continue to be pressured by low production over the last three years from weather impacts, and will remain above average, similar to 2024.
- In the Dry Corridor, Alta Verapaz, and the Western Highlands, local demand for staple grain labor is expected to be below average due to high production costs and reduced area planted. However, the main source of income for poor rural households remains migratory agricultural work, driven by demand for workers on commercial farms, which remains within average ranges.
- The hurricane season is expected to remain above average; the erratic distribution of rainfall could cause excess precipitation in short periods, generating the risk of flooding, landslides, and mudslides.
Humanitarian food assistance
- There are projects from different governmental institutions and international organizations that contemplate the delivery of humanitarian food assistance in various departments and municipalities of Guatemala. However, the scale of this assistance is expected to be limited, both in terms of the number of beneficiaries and caloric content. Although it is likely that this food assistance may contribute to mitigating food consumption deficits among directly benefiting households in some municipalities, its coverage is very likely less than 25 percent of their population and will not reach the thresholds established by IPC protocols to be considered in the mapping of food security outcomes.
Between November 2025 and January 2026, the availability of recent staple grain harvests and the temporary increase in income from the sale of agricultural labor during the harvest of commercial crops will improve food consumption, resulting in widespread national Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity outcomes. In the absence of their own harvests, many poor households will use income immediately for debt repayment and the purchase of staple grains. Market dependence and high food prices will pressure the poorest households’ purchasing power; without savings or reserves, they will allocate more than half of their income to food purchases and will have to quickly resort to the use of critical coping strategies, classifying them in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between February and May 2026. However, some areas will not see substantial improvements and will remain classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) throughout the outlook period. As the lean season approaches, the number of households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will increase, as their resilience is limited given the impact of consecutive weather events that have damaged their livelihood activities.
In the Dry Corridor, due to crop losses during the primera and postrera cycles, between October and January, the poorest households will not have staple grains from own production for consumption, forcing them to continue buying maize and beans at above average prices. As this period coincides with the main commercial crop harvest season, households will temporarily migrate to commercial coffee farms in Guatemala and Honduras through February. The income received will allow some households to improve food consumption for a few months and be classified in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity through January 2026. However, most of the poorest households who have been carrying high debt will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). For these households, the income obtained will be insufficient to make substantial improvements to food consumption, as it will be quickly used to pay accumulated debts and buy staple grains at elevated prices. To cover their food needs, these households will continue to make adjustments to the quality and quantity of food in the family diet and resort to the use of other strategies, such as cutting essential expenses and atypical migration of more household members.
From February to May 2026, migratory labor demand will end with the commercial crop harvests. Given prolonged and elevated food expenditures, as well as persistent indebtedness to purchase staple grains, the poorest households will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). These households will continue to sacrifice the quantity and diversity of food in the diet, migrating atypically in search of income and selling productive assets to acquire staple foods, which will cause their lean season to begin one or two months earlier than usual. These households will be joined by those who, after having managed to improve food consumption in the past period, will experience a deterioration of food security and fall back into Crisis (IPC Phase 3), as income decreases and market dependence on food increases. Although in May 2026, primera cycle planting activities begin along with hiring daily labor, income will still be insufficient to improve food consumption.
Despite the delay in the staple grain growing season, slightly below or close to average harvests in Alta Verapaz are expected to allow the poorest households to consume maize and beans from their own production, mitigating market purchases. The expected harvest season for coffee, cardamom, cacao, and other seasonal crops will increase family income and improve their diet. From October 2025 to January 2026, most households will be classified in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity, as debt repayment and the high price of food will continue to pressure their purchasing power, and they will have to adjust food quality, consume less preferred foods, and cut non-essential expenses. During this same period, some areas and pockets of populations spread throughout the department that were affected by weather irregularities in previous years, and that have not managed to recover their staple grain farms, will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). From February to May 2026, staple grain reserves will decrease, and the poorest households will have to acquire staple grains at higher than usual prices. In addition, during these months, seasonal agricultural employment opportunities and thus food access are reduced. Many households, whose consumption had improved in past months, will have to resort to reducing the quantity of food in the family diet and other negative coping strategies, putting their livelihoods at risk to ensure their basic food needs. These households will therefore be classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through May 2026, joining the other households that were already experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.
In the Western Highlands, staple grain harvests between December and January are expected to allow the poorest households to avoid market purchases for at least two months. Likewise, starting in October, the harvest of commercial crops, such as coffee and sugar cane both inside and outside Guatemala, will generate average demand for agricultural labor, which will increase the income of the poorest households that usually migrate outside their areas of residence during these months. With the exception of some pockets of population that will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), most households will have food from their harvests and income to improve their diet, but part of their wages will be used to pay debts, so they will still have to make adjustments to the quality of their diet and reduce non-essential expenses, leaving them in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity through January 2026. Between February and May 2026, as labor demand for the coffee harvest decreases and staple grain reserves come to an end, the poorest households who have been carrying debts and prolonged market dependence will see a deterioration in their diet and return to Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
Evidence | Source | Data format | Food security element of analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Rain and temperature forecast | Quantitative from remote sensing, weather models and national weather services | Climate trends that affect agricultural production and seasonal food availability | |
Monitoring of market supply and wholesale prices of agricultural products | Quantitative/ Qualitative | Sources of income and job opportunities that affect food access, household purchasing power and market access | |
Livelihoods profiles | Qualitative | Typical food and income sources by livelihood zone | |
Crop monitoring reports | MAGA; field sources | Quantitative/ Qualitative (interviews and discussions with key informants) | Trends and anomalies in agricultural production. Local perspectives on food access, agricultural conditions, and strategies |
Food and Nutritional Security Monitoring Report (2025) | SESAN (2025) | Quantitative/ Qualitative | State and trends of household food security |
Epidemiological reports of acute malnutrition | Quantitative | Nutritional status and public health risks | |
Macroeconomic and national statistics | Quantitative | Economic and demographic indicators that affect household purchasing power and food security | |
Reports from the coffee sector | Quantitative/ Qualitative
| Market trends and income sources for coffee producers; implications for food access in production areas | |
Reports from the sugar sector | Quantitative/ Qualitative | Market trends and income sources for sugar producers; implications for food access in production areas |
Early warning of acute food insecurity outcomes requires forecasting months in advance to provide decision makers with sufficient time to budget, plan, and respond to expected humanitarian crises. However, due to the complex and variable factors that influence acute food insecurity, definitive predictions are impossible. Scenario Development is a methodology that allows FEWS NET to meet decision makers’ needs by developing a “most likely” scenario of the future.
FEWS NET’s scenario development process applies the Disaster Risk Reduction framework and a livelihoods-based lens to assess acute food insecurity outcomes. A household’s risk of acute food insecurity depends not only on hazards (such as drought) but also the household’s vulnerability to these hazards (e.g., the level of dependence on rainfed crop production for food and income) and coping capacity (which considers both the household’s ability to cope with a given hazard and the use of negative coping strategies that harm future capacity). To evaluate these factors, FEWS NET bases this analysis on a strong foundational understanding of local livelihoods. FEWS NET’s scenario development process also accounts for the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework; the Four Dimensions of Food Security; and UNICEF’s Nutrition Conceptual Framework, and is closely aligned with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analytical framework.
- How does FEWS NET analyze current acute food insecurity outcomes? FEWS NET assesses the extent to which households can meet their minimum caloric needs. This analysis converges evidence of current food security conditions with available direct evidence of household-level food consumption and livelihood change. FEWS NET also considers available area-level evidence of nutritional status and mortality, focusing on whether these reflect the physiological impacts of acute food insecurity. FEWS NET uses the globally recognized five-phase Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale to classify current acute food insecurity outcomes, and the analysis is IPC-compatible. In addition, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of ongoing humanitarian food assistance.
- How does FEWS NET develop key assumptions underpinning the most likely scenario? A key step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is the development of evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security. These include hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will impact the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions about factors expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions form the foundation of the “most likely” scenario.
- How does FEWS NET analyze projected acute food insecurity outcomes? Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET projects acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs over time. FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance.
- How does FEWS NET analyze humanitarian food assistance? Humanitarian food assistance – defined as emergency food assistance (in-kind, cash, or voucher) – may play a key role in mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes. FEWS NET analysts always incorporate available information on food assistance, with the caveat that such information can vary significantly across geographies and over time. In line with IPC protocols, FEWS NET uses the best available information to assess where food assistance is “significant” (defined by at least 25 percent of households in a given area receiving at least 25 percent of their caloric requirements through food assistance). In addition, FEWS NET conducts deeper analysis of the likely impacts of food assistance on the severity of outcomes, as detailed in FEWS NET’s guidance on Integrating Humanitarian Food Assistance into Scenario Development.
Source: FEWS NET
While FEWS NET’s projections are considered the “most likely” scenario, there is always a degree of uncertainty in the assumptions that underpin the scenario. This means food security conditions and their impacts on acute food security may evolve differently than projected. FEWS NET issues monthly updates to its projections, but decision makers need advance information about this uncertainty and an explanation of why things may turn out differently than projected. As such, the final step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to briefly identify key events that would result in a credible alternative scenario and significantly change the projected outcomes. FEWS NET only considers scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurrence.
National
The approach or landfall of a tropical storm or hurricane
Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Food insecurity outcomes would depend on the intensity and magnitude of the tropical storm or whether a hurricane makes landfall. Recent experiences, such as Eta and Iota, have demonstrated that the close passage of a hurricane or tropical storm can cause severe impacts on the local population. Excessive rainfall and strong winds could cause flooding, river overflows, landslides, and mudslides. These conditions would result in the destruction of residences, roads, and infrastructure, in addition to livelihoods, which would cause the displacement of those affected. Furthermore, damage to subsistence crops and commercial crops would affect food availability, as well as employment and income opportunities. The obstruction of access routes would interrupt the movement of people and goods, causing shortages in local markets and an increase in transportation costs and food prices. These factors would cause an increase in the number of households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Guatemala Food Security Outlook October 2025 - May 2026: Crisis (IPC Phase 3) persists following annual subsistence crop losses, 2025.
To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Learn more here.