Poorer households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to lack of seasonal improvements

• From October to January the highest area-level outcome will be Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Due to zero or below-average staple grain harvests, a long period of market dependence amid high food prices, as well as the rapid use of income for debt repayments and the immediate purchase of staple grains, the poorest households will have to resort to the use of negative coping strategies to meet  essential food needs. 
• In October, many areas will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to the delay in the production cycle. Poor rural households still do not have the typical household stocks of staple grain crops that alleviate the necessity of market purchases. They will continue to allocate a large proportion of their income to purchasing food. From November to January, many households in the areas previously in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) due to the seasonal availability of subsistence grown maize and beans, and the increase in income from the employment of temporary agricultural labor for various cash crops. 
• From February to May, the areas classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will expand as stocks of staple grains deplete, sources of migration income are reduced, and demand for local employment is atypically low. Poorer households in the most affected areas will experience the early onset of the lean season. FEWS NET estimates the population in need of food assistance will peak during this period between 1.5 and 1.99 million people.
• The areas of greatest concern are the Dry Corridor, Alta Verapaz, and Altiplano, where poor rural households have continued to use negative coping strategies to meet their food needs. Despite an average season of demand for agricultural labor that allowed for income generation, the prolonged reliance on the purchase of food and the deterioration of livelihoods over two consecutive years only allowed poor households to make minimal improvements in food consumption. 

The analysis presented here is based on information available as of October 31, 2024. 

• Households in the Dry Corridor, Alta Verapaz, and pockets of the population in Altiplano will experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes throughout the projection period (through May 2025). In these areas, poor rural households have depended on the purchase of staple grains for two consecutive years because of the loss of harvests caused by irregular rainfall and high temperatures. Despite a season of high demand for agricultural labor that resulted in average income, the prolonged and high expenditures on food, the scarce sources of employment at the local level, and excess borrowing have not allowed these households to make substantial improvements to their diets. Without food stocks and with a greater proportion of their expenditures being allocated to feed themselves, the lean season will begin prematurely for these households. 
• In October, many areas were classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to the delay in the availability of subsistence grown staple grain crops that would likely have alleviated market dependence for one or two months. As of November, many of these poor rural households will have greater access to food due to the seasonal increase in income due to the demand for labor for the harvest of various cash crops, in addition to having volumes of subsistence grown maize which, even though amounts are below average, will help households improve their outcomes to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) until January 2025. As of February, the market dependence on the purchase of staple grains will remain above average due to the decrease in temporary sources of employment, meaning that food security will deteriorate and many households will experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes until at least May 2025.
• Erratic rainfall and high temperatures have persisted throughout the year. Prolonged periods of below-average rainfall reduced the availability of water for plants, while short periods of heavy and excessive rainfall caused flooding and waterlogging. This combination of irregular rainfall and atypically warm conditions has created an environment conducive to the proliferation of crop pests and diseases. The hardest hit are subsistence farmers who engage in rainfed agriculture and cannot afford to purchase pesticides and fertilizers in necessary quantities. As a result, this year’s yields of staple grains are lower than normal, decreasing the own-produced food stocks for poor rural households. Small-scale coffee and cardamom farmers who have experienced various climate and economic shocks due to the low international sale price and high prices of agricultural inputs will obtain below-average yields, impacting their livelihoods and reducing employment opportunities for those employed locally. 

Learn more

Follow these links for additional information: 

• Guatemala Food Security Outlook: June 2024 to January 2025
• Central America, Colombia, Venezuela, and Haiti Seasonal Monitoring: October 2024
• Overview of FEWS NET's Scenario Development Methodology
• FEWS NET's approach to estimating population in need
• Overview of IPC and IPC compatible analysis

Agriculture is the foundation of the national and rural households’ economies in Guatemala. Agricultural activities are governed by weather patterns, mainly due to the existence of two rainy seasons, separated by a period of intense heat. These rains mark the start of crop planting and are essential for crop development. Too much or too little rainfall negatively impacts crops, causes delays in planting and harvesting times, and encourages the proliferation of pests and diseases. Small-scale farmers, who rely on rainfed agriculture, mainly grow maize and beans for their own-consumption. The primera cycle is mainly used to grow maize, while the postrera cycle is primarily beans. In Altiplano, there is a single annual planting cycle of staple grains, while in the northern region, the second cycle occurs a little later (late postrera ). 

In rural areas, the lean season is characterized by the depletion of subsistence staple grain reserves, reduced income-generating opportunities, and seasonal increases in food prices. The period between June and August marks the peak of this period: when prices of staple grains tend to rise as domestic harvests decline. For several years domestic production of black beans has been lower due to high production costs and the crop’s susceptibility to climate impacts. 

The hurricane season typically begins in June and ends in November, although in recent years, it has extended into December. Excessive rainfall, accompanied by winds and storm activity, can lead to flooding, river overflows, landslides, and damage to crops and infrastructure. One of the most intense seasons was recorded in late 2020, when two consecutive hurricanes, Eta and Iota, inflicted major damage on infrastructure, agriculture, and housing, causing the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people, mainly in the northern and northeastern areas of the country. In Alta Verapaz, in the area near the Polochic River, soil damage is still present due to the amount of sand and sediment that covered the fertile land. 

The peak season of income generation in rural areas is closely linked to seasonal production cycles. At the local level, the activities linked to the production of staple grains, coffee, and cardamom are a source of income for day laborers who are employed locally and small-scale producers who sell part or all of their crops. From October through February/March, the harvest of cash crops, such as sugar cane and coffee, significantly increases labor demand for poor rural households that migrate for employment. The availability of casual employment abroad also experiences peaks in these periods: in Mexico or Honduras on coffee and fruit farms, among others. Dry spells, frost, or excessive and/or irregular rainfall can harm these sources of income, mainly for small-scale producers by limiting the sale of products and the labor demand. In recent years, climate variations have affected the coffee production of small-scale farmers, and low market prices have limited the sale of cardamom. 

Permanent migration to the United States has increased in recent years, especially since the pandemic. Remittances sent throughout the year by migrants, and to a greater extent at the end of the year, stimulate the local economy by allowing the purchase of products within the community and the hiring of agricultural and construction laborers; representing a crucial source of income for many households. 

The general evolution of inflation since the pandemic also impacts food security in Guatemala. General price levels have have experienced significant variations since 2020 due to multiple factors such as disruptions in supply chains, limitations on the transportation of cargo and passengers, volatility in the price of cereals and oil on an international scale, and the rise in interest rates. In mid-2020, significant increases in inflation were recorded due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Since 2021, the increase in inflation worsened due to the rapid increase in the international price of fertilizers and fuels, which put pressure on local prices until inflation reached its highest point in February 2023. Year-on-year inflation has since slowed but food prices remain above average. 

Early warning of acute food insecurity outcomes requires forecasting outcomes months in advance to provide decision makers with sufficient time to budget, plan, and respond to expected humanitarian crises. However, due to the complex and variable factors that influence acute food insecurity, definitive predictions are impossible. Scenario Development is the methodology that allows FEWS NET to meet decision makers’ needs by developing a “most likely” scenario of the future. The starting point for scenario development is a robust analysis of current food security conditions, which is the focus of this section. 

Key guiding principles for FEWS NET’s scenario development process include applying the Disaster Risk Reduction framework and a livelihoods-based lens to assessing acute food insecurity outcomes. A household’s risk of acute food insecurity is a function of not only hazards (such as a drought) but also the household’s vulnerability to those hazards (for example, the household’s level of dependence on rainfed crop production for food and income) and coping capacity (which considers both household capacity to cope with a given hazard and the use of negative coping strategies that harm future coping capacity). To evaluate these factors, FEWS NET grounds this analysis in a strong foundational understanding of local livelihoods, which are the means by which a household meets their basic needs. FEWS NET’s scenario development process also accounts for the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework; the Four Dimensions of Food Security; and UNICEF’s Nutrition Conceptual Framework, and is closely aligned with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analytical framework.

High temperatures and erratic rainfall

In 2024, the combination of higher-than-normal temperatures and the erratic distribution of rainfall have increased evapotranspiration (i.e., the combination of the evaporation of water from the soil and the transpiration of plants). These conditions mean that soil water and plant water are lost quickly, and also leads to an environment conducive to the emergence of pests and diseases in crops. Pests thrive in hot, dry climates, while diseases, especially fungal ones, can proliferate due to increased humidity. In affected areas, this results in decreased yields and crop quality, especially for small-scale producers, as well as higher production costs due to the increased application of pesticides. 

Prolonged periods of below-average rainfall have reduced the availability of water for plants, affecting their development. As of October 20, various areas in the north and east of the country had recorded 11 to 14 consecutive days without rain. This lack of water makes the soil more compact and less fertile, which further hinders subsistence farming and discourages small producers from planting due to the risk of losses and uncertainty about harvest results. Meanwhile, short periods of heavy and excessive rainfall have caused flooding and waterlogging, thereby damaging plant roots, eroding soil, and washing away essential nutrients, which makes the soil less productive. In addition, heavy rainfall causes landslides and mudflows, which not only affect crops but also nearby infrastructure and settlements. These conditions have affected the incipient planting of staple postrera grains and primera crops, which have dried up on the land before being harvested. 

Crop production:

This year, the planting of staple grains during the primera cycle and the only cycle in the Altiplano was delayed by two to six weeks due to the late arrival of the first rainy period of the year. During the primera cycle, the reduction in rainfall, abnormal heat, dry spells, loss of soil moisture, and increases in pests and diseases negatively impacted crops. Primera-cycle maize harvests began in October, at least a month later than normal. Although primera production nationwide was in average ranges, yields were lower than average for small-scale farmers who engage in rainfed agriculture. For example, in the Dry Corridor and the north of the country, maize yields for subsistence farmers are estimated to be 60 to 75 percent below normal. Meanwhile, subsistence farmers who managed to plant crops have seen losses of beans ranging from 75 percent to total. The postrera cycle was in turn impacted by the delay of the primera cycle, with planting activities only being reported in October in various locations. The cultivation cycle of staple grains in the Western Highlands – with harvests in November and December – is underway, but there are already reports of localized damage due to dry spells, pest infestations, and floods. One of the biggest problems currently facing farmers is the proliferation of pests on maize and bean crops. In 2021, agricultural input prices increased significantly and almost doubled. Although they have decreased in the last year, they are still above average, which has increased expenditure for rural households. Small-scale farmers are spending the same amount of money on inputs, but due to higher prices, the amount of product application is lower, which limits yields and pest control. 

In October, cash crops such as coffee, sugar, and cardamom are being harvested. Coffee farmss were impacted to varying levels by irregular rainfall and high temperatures in localized areas. Small-scale producers were the hardest hit due to their limited access to agricultural inputs. Sugar crops were also affected by warmer-than-normal weather and dry spells, as was the case last year. However, production remains close to average. Cardamom production, mainly carried out by small-scale and medium producers, was damaged due to the extensive dry spell in the northern part of the country, where the cultivation of this crop is concentrated. The impact on farms is significant, particularly in the Department of Alta Verapaz. 

Income from agricultural work outside the home:

The season of high labor demand for the harvest of cash crops begins in October. For a period of three to six months, poor households migrate outside their areas of residence within the country or to Honduras or Mexico to work in the cash crop production of coffee, sugar, and fruit trees, where production is estimated to be in average ranges. Meanwhile, the yields of local production of small-scale producers of coffee and cardamom, which employ local labor, are below average. According to BANGUAT figures for August 2024, the export volumes of coffee, bananas, and sugar are similar to last year. The value of agricultural wages in rural areas has increased by 10-20 GTQ/day in recent years, averaging 50-100 GTQ/day. Locally and to a lesser extent, agricultural work for land clearing, preparation, and planting of staple grain crops are income-generating activities, especially after the cash crop production season. However, these options have been below average for the past two years because of high production costs and historic crop losses. Cardamom and coffee are important sources of income for small-scale producers, who sell their production to intermediaries. For several years, small-scale coffee farmers have faced high costs of agricultural inputs, such as fertilizers and pesticides, as well as rising labor costs. These factors limit the investment capacity during crop production, which has a negative impact on yields and the quality of production. This year, small-scale cardamom producers have experienced a long dry spell that has seriously affected their crops and production, resulting in a lower harvest and, therefore, lower income. This, in addition to other economic challenges, exacerbates the vulnerability of these small-scale producers to market fluctuations and adverse weather conditions.

Market supply and prices of staple grains:

For the second year in a row due to the delay in planting, maize harvests started to reach the markets around mid-October, one month late. This is similar to the case of beans, which are typically harvested in August but were not harvested until September this year. The late harvest and lower-than-average volumes are related to losses in previous years and the reduction in area planted, particularly among small-scale producers. The supply of staple grains in markets has come from domestic stored volumes and from imports. This year, imports have been higher to guarantee supply and offset the high prices triggered by lower production in 2023, which suffered from damages and losses due to climate variability. In May, the government approved the duty-free import of volumes of white maize and black beans. Due to the full use of the authorized quantity and the persistence of high prices, in October the government expanded these quantities. Prices for both grains have remained above average throughout the year. The price of white maize has remained similar to last year but is still above the five-year average with variations of more than 20 percent between January and September 2024. In the case of black beans, the price has remained higher than the previous year and significantly (50 to60 percent) above the five-year average.

Household purchasing power: 

In September, the Consumer Price Index decreased 0.96 points compared to the previous month and 2.58 points compared to September 2023. In September, the food and transport divisions accounted for the largest portion of the slowdown in inflation, even though some commodities such as tortillas, eggs, and firewood continued to show positive variations. According to WFP, household spending on food in general has increased in 2024: 14 percent of households spend more than 75 percent of their total expenditure on food and 24 percent spend between 65 and 75 percent. 

Humanitarian food assistance – defined as emergency food assistance (in-kind, cash, or voucher) – may play a key role in mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes. FEWS NET analysts always incorporate available information on food assistance, with the caveat that information on food assistance is highly variable across geographies and over time. In line with IPC protocols, FEWS NET uses the best available information to assess where food assistance is “significant” (defined by at least 25 percent of households in a given area receiving at least 25 percent of their caloric requirements through food assistance); see report Annex. In addition, FEWS NET conducts deeper analysis of the likely impacts of food assistance on the severity of outcomes, as detailed in FEWS NET’s guidance on Integrating Humanitarian Food Assistance into Scenario Development. Other types of assistance (e.g., livelihoods or nutrition assistance; social safety net programs) are incorporated elsewhere in FEWS NET’s broader analysis, as applicable.

Projects from various governmental institutions and international organizations are considering the delivery of humanitarian food assistance in different municipalities in Guatemala. However, this assistance is localized and neither population nor caloric coverage is sufficient to change the area-level food security classification. 

Based on the analysis of food security conditions, FEWS NET then assesses the extent to which households are able to meet their minimum caloric needs. This analysis converges evidence of food security conditions with available direct evidence of household-level food consumption and livelihood change; FEWS NET also considers available area-level evidence of nutritional status and mortality, with a focus on assessing if these reflect the physiological impacts of acute food insecurity rather than other non-food-related factors. Ultimately, FEWS NET uses the globally recognized five-phase Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale to classify current acute food insecurity outcomes. In addition, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of ongoing humanitarian food assistance.

Dry Corridor: 

This area has experienced prolonged dry spells for two consecutive years that have negatively impacted livelihoods related to subsistence staple grains production and casual agricultural employment. In a typical year, at this time, households have grains from their own harvest in September, which helps decrease their market dependence, but this year, market dependence has lasted until mid-October due to delayed harvests following the late start of the season. During the season, crops were impacted by erratic rainfall, high temperatures, and increased pests. The poorest households engaged in subsistence agriculture are the most affected with maize production levels that are at least half of what they would have been in a normal year. Bean harvests, harvested one month late in September, yielded almost nothing. In the month of October, household members often migrate in search of seasonal work that allows them to generate income to take home or send home every two to three weeks. Due to the prolonged market dependence for purchase of staple grains and the high cost of food, households have resorted to the use of coping strategies such as reducing the amount of food in their diet, buying on credit, and involving household members who were not used to working to generate income. In October, poor households in this area will be classified as Crisis (IPC Phase 3). 

Alta Verapaz: 

Staple grains were planted four to six weeks late, which in turn delayed harvests well into the month of October, as opposed to the normal harvest in September. In addition, the rainy season was erratic, and temperatures were higher than normal, which affected the development of crops. Likewise, various crops that are part of small-scale agricultural systems, such as cardamom, coffee, cocoa, herbs, and fruits, were also affected by the long dry spell and localized wildfires, which have prevented households from generating typical income from their sales. The planting and production of maize and bean crops are often an opportunity for day laborers to generate income locally. However, due to the effects on the production cycle, this source of employment was below average this season. In October, the season of high demand for labor in various cash crop products inside and outside the area begins, and although households have started to migrate and take on employment, the prolonged market dependence prevents improvement to the household diet. Poor households have only managed to make marginal improvements to their diets and continue to limit their food consumption. They also resort to other strategies such as atypical migration of household members or the sale of assets, and therefore experienced Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in October. 

Altiplano:

The delay in the arrival and the subsequent erratic distribution of the rains caused localized damage to the only production cycle of staple grains in 2023, leading to early and prolonged market dependence to buy food. In 2024, crops were planted later than normal due to the late arrival of the rains. Crops suffered from irregular rainfall, winds, and high temperatures during the production cycle. Households are continuing to rely on market purchases and will not start consuming own-produced grains until December/January. In October, the season of high labor demand began and households began to migrate to places with job opportunities, but overall they were still unable to improve their food consumption. Due to the prolonged dependence on the purchase of staple grains in the market, the debts incurred, and the continued reliance on food purchases, these households were classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in October.   

Rest of country:

The majority of the country is classified in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). The high costs of food and transportation continue to put pressure on household expenditure. To meet their minimum food needs, households continue to sacrifice the quality of their diet, resorting to the consumption of less preferred foods, as well as obtaining loans and cutting non-essential expenditures. 

The next step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to develop evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security conditions. This includes hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will affect the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions on factors that are expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions underpin the “most likely” scenario. The sequence of making assumptions is important; primary assumptions (e.g., expectations pertaining to weather) must be developed before secondary assumptions (e.g., expectations pertaining to crop or livestock production). Key assumptions that underpin this analysis, and the key sources of evidence used to develop the assumptions, are listed below.

National assumptions

• Above-average rainfall with an irregular distribution, as well as high temperatures for the rest of 2024, will likely lead to an increase in pests and diseases affecting postrera and late postrera staple grain crops in 2024, especially for small-scale farmers. The hurricane season is expected to remain above average given the persistence of the La Niña phenomenon until December 2024. 
• The postrera production cycle will likely end later than normal. However, the end of the rainy season is expected in late October. 
• Postrera and late postrera yields will likely be lower than average for subsistence farmers. Meanwhile, small-scale farmers in the Altiplano are likely to see slightly below-average production. Availability of maize and beans for household consumption would be lower than normal.
• Domestic bean production is expected to be below average. The import volume of black beans will likely be above average.
• While income from wages for cash crops both inside and outside the country will likely remain stable, sporadic income from local agricultural work will likely be below average. Small-scale coffee farmers and small-scale cardamom producers may receive lower-than-normal income due to high production costs and climate impacts.
• According to FEWS NET's price projections, staple grain prices will likely remain above the five-year averages by between 15-20 percent for white maize and between 35-50 percent for black beans. 

Humanitarian food assistance

National assumption

• Projects from various governmental institutions and international organizations are considering the delivery of humanitarian food assistance in different municipalities in Guatemala. However, this assistance is localized and neither population nor caloric coverage is sufficient to change the area-level food security classification. 

Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET is then able to project acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs throughout the projection period. Similar to the analysis of current acute food insecurity outcomes, FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance.

Dry Corridor: 

After a second year of minimal staple grain harvests, poor rural households in the Dry Corridor do not have sufficient food stocks to cover part of their annual consumption of maize and beans, as is typical. The increase in income from casual agricultural work outside their areas of residence will not suffice to improve food consumption due to high food prices and the prolonged market dependence needed to ensure their household food supply. In October, poor rural households started to migrate to coffee- and sugar-producing areas, where they will be able to generate income in normal ranges until February. For some households that managed to secure at least half of their normal maize production, these harvests plus income from migratory agricultural labor will allow them to improve their diet for two or three months; however, they will continue to make adjustments to the quality of their food and resort to coping strategies such as taking out loans and cutting education expenditures, and face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through January 2025. As the next lean season progresses, and as the sources of income generation and below average stocks of staple grains decrease, these households will deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes between February and May 2025. 

Meanwhile, a portion of very poor households (whose maize and bean harvests were minimal or absent) will quickly use the money obtained during the season of high labor demand to pay off debts taken out in past months and continue buying staple grains. The persistence of high maize and bean prices will force these households to allocate a greater part of their income to the food purchases or to reduce their food consumption. These households will not experience seasonal improvements and will continue to limit their diet, reducing the amount of food in their diet, and resort to strategies such as atypical migration of other household members and the sale of productive assets, remaining in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through May 2025. 

Alta Verapaz: 

This area was impacted by abnormal dry spells and wildfires that damaged crops and livelihoods of poor households. As a result, poor households will not have normal amounts of food stocks and income. Maize and bean yields will be below average. Due to the damage to cardamom crops, both small-scale producers selling produce and day laborers employed locally will not be able to earn their typical income. In the middle of the season of high labor demand, households will migrate to take jobs for harvesting coffee, sugar cane, or fruit trees. This group will be joined by other households that did not typically migrate or that typically only migrate for short seasons. Households that managed to harvest a part of the typical production of staple grains will experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes from October 2024 to January 2025 due to wages for agricultural employment and the availability of subsistence grown maize. As of February, as employment opportunities and food stocks dwindle and market dependence increases, a deterioration in diet is expected. Households will resort to the use of coping strategies and face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes until May 2025. 

Meanwhile, the poorest households, which will lack staple grain crops and be market dependent for the purchase of maize and beans at very high prices, will spend the income obtained from agricultural labor quickly and prematurely. These households will not be able to make substantial improvements to their diet. To ensure the minimum household diet, they will reduce the amount of food and cut down on portions. Likewise, as a coping strategy, they will resort to the sale of assets and atypical migration at abnormal times and of more household members to earn an income and will experience an early start to the lean season. Consequently, they will not experience seasonal improvements and will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through May 2025.

Altiplano: 

Poor households in this area will start consuming subsistence grown staple grains late due to delayed planting and harvests. The harvests that start in December will be near to slightly below average. However, production costs have risen, so households have allocated a greater part of their savings, as well as part of the sporadic and below-average income generated during the recent production cycle, to crop production. In October, households started to migrate to different production areas, mainly coffee-producing areas, both within the country and in Mexico. Income is expected to be in normal ranges and be used to buy staple grains and to pay off debts. The availability of staple grains from December/January harvests will decrease market dependence for staple foods for at least one or two months. Most households will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes until at least January 2025. From February to May, households that obtained harvests in normal ranges will still have some food stocks and savings to ensure sufficient food consumption and will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2). However, pockets of the population made up of the poorest households who decided not to plant for fear of losing their investment, those who lost their crops, or those who planted less than normal will continue to buy products at high prices and their incomes will quickly deplete. These households will employ coping strategies such as reducing portions, as well as the migration of other household members in search of alternative and additional income to try to meet necessary household food consumption, resulting in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes until at least May 2025. 

While FEWS NET’s projections are considered the “most likely” scenario, there is always a degree of uncertainty in the assumptions that underpin the scenario. This means food security conditions and their impacts on acute food security may evolve differently than projected. FEWS NET issues monthly updates to its projections, but decision makers need advance information about this uncertainty and an explanation of why things may turn out differently than projected. As such, the final step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to briefly identify key events that would result in a credible alternative scenario and significantly change the projected outcomes. FEWS NET only considers scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurrence.

National 

A tropical storm or hurricane will likely cause damage to homes, crops, and access roads, deteriorating the livelihoods of affected populations

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Excessive rainfall and high winds could damage cash crops (which are an important source of income to poor households through agricultural employment), damage livelihoods, cause people to move to safe areas, restrict the movement of people to areas of employment, and cause transportation and food prices to rise, resulting in increased numbers of households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2). 

Food assistance provided by the government, with widespread national coverage and in sufficient quantities to meet the minimum necessary household consumption

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Sufficient and widespread food assistance would allow populations currently classified as Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to improve their food security situation to Stressed (IPC Phase 2).