Reduced rainfall, high temperatures and market dependence maintain Crisis

• Between June and September 2026 in the Dry Corridor, the poorest households in some areas of Alta Verapaz and the Western Highlands will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) following consecutive crop losses, high market dependence, atypically low income, and an early lean season. Irregular rainfall, high temperatures, and increased input prices will continue to limit agricultural employment, forcing households to resort to strategies such as selling productive assets and reducing portions.
• Between October 2026 and January 2027, many poor households will be classified  in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as income from temporary labor in commercial crops and harvests of basic grains, although late and below average, will temporarily improve food access and consumption for a few months. However, in the Dry Corridor and areas of Alta Verapaz and the Altiplano, households that did not obtain harvests this year will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until January, as they will continue to depend on the market amid limited income, preventing them from meeting a minimally adequate diet since debt repayment and high prices will restrict purchasing power.
• The El Niño phenomenon will maintain below-normal precipitation and elevated temperatures until January, affecting primera season crops and postrera planting. Given the delayed establishment of rains and planting, basic grain harvests will flow to markets with delays, sustaining high prices for a long period.

• FEWS NET estimates that the population in need of food assistance will be between 2.0-2.49 million between June and September, reaching the upper limit of the range between July and August, as stocks decline, income sources decrease, and dependence on food purchases intensifies. Between October 2026 and January 2027, the seasonal increase in income and availability of own harvests will allow many households to improve food consumption, bringing the population in need to between 1.5 and 1.99 million people.

  The analysis in this report is based on information available as of June 22, 2026.   

The first rainy season, which seasonally begins in May, has been characterized by a reduction in precipitation, with widespread values of at least 50 percent below normal. The poor and irregular performance of the rainfall regime has caused a delay of up to 30 days in its establishment, which has affected the start of basic grain planting, especially for subsistence producers dependent on rainfed agriculture. By the end of May, throughout much of the country, preparatory activities for planting were still being carried out. In some areas of the west and localized areas of the east, some farmers planted in dry conditions; however, the lack of precipitation toward the end of May had already caused seed losses. Small-scale farmers were forced to replant (incurring higher production costs) or decided not to plant for the primera season. Despite the fact that in mid-June short periods of intense rainfall were recorded, associated mainly with easterly waves and the passage of Storm Cristina near the Pacific coasts, these accumulations did not manage to cover the deficits accumulated since the beginning of the season.

High temperatures have persisted since the beginning of the year, which, together with low rainfall and the transition starting in June to El Niño conditions, continue to cause high moisture loss that through mid-June shows values of up to 50 percent of normal in the Dry Corridor. According to key informants in the field, cracked soils are reported in eastern areas, including the Dry Corridor, which further complicates the absorption of rainwater. If these conditions persist (irregular rainfall with persistently and atypically high temperatures), smallholder farmers, particularly those practicing rainfed agriculture, will face increased risk of reduction in area planted below-normal yields. 

The increase in fuel, transportation, food costs, and fertilizers, continues to pressure household purchasing power. Disruptions in the marketing chain keep fuel and fertilizer prices elevated. In May, gasoline prices remained stable, while diesel decreased by 18 percent compared to the previous month. However, despite subsidies, diesel and gasoline prices remain 30 percent above the price levels observed in May of last year. After remaining stable for several months, in May fertilizer prices showed an upward trend, particularly urea, which recorded an increase of 23 percent compared to the January 2026 price. Elevated fertilizer prices increase production costs, leading farmers to limit or forgo their use. Consequently, expected yields could be below normal. Freight transportation costs continue to impact food prices: in May, transportation inflation was 10.9 percent, and food inflation was 2.7 percent (Figure 1). At the same time, the wholesale price of maize was similar to the five-year average, but 10 percent higher than last year. Bean prices continue to show a downward trend, at 19 percent lower than last year due to the considerable volumes of tariff-free imports that have been maintained since last year.

Humanitarian food assistance

Currently, different humanitarian actors are delivering limited levels of humanitarian food assistance in focused areas of the country. However, the scale of this assistance — in terms of the number of beneficiaries and caloric content — is insufficient to change the current food insecurity classification at the area level.

In June, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are occurring at the national level, resulting from the persistence of high fuel, transportation, and food prices that continue to pressure the purchasing power of households. Meanwhile, the Dry Corridor, areas of Alta Verapaz, and the Western Highlands are classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) as high temperatures and the irregularity and decrease in precipitation, exacerbated by the presenceof El Niño, have reduced labor demand for primera season planting. Additionally, these households face the premature start of the lean season, triggered by the lack or early depletion of basic grain reserves due to recurrent production losses and prolonged purchasing of basic foods.

In the Dry Corridor, poor households are classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) as they face ongoing restricted access to food due to below-average harvests, lower income from agricultural day labor, and premature market dependence. Deficit rainfall and high temperatures in 2025 damaged subsistence crops, with nearly total losses, reducing for the poor households’ production from rainfed agriculture for a third consecutive year. With rapidly depleted reserves, these households began depending on the market atypically early and continuously. The primera planting season constitutes an important source of employment for rural households; however, this year, the delay and irregularity of rainfall and the increase in fertilizer prices caused lower labor demand. The prolonged purchase of basic grains, reduced income, high prices of fertilizers, fuel, transportation and food restrict the purchasing capacity of poor households who already allocate more than half of household expenditure to acquiring food. To feed themselves, these households adhere to a basic diet and reduce meal size and frequency; they are marginally able to meet their food needs only through the use of negative coping strategies, such as atypical migration of more household members in search of work and the sale of productive assets.

In southern Alta Verapaz, the recurrence of production deficits and limited income-earning opportunities are causing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in June. After four years of recurrent shocks that have damaged productive soils, crops, and livelihoods, poor households in the southern part of the department depleted their reserves atypically early, causing premature and prolonged market dependence prior to the lean season. Delayed rains, high temperatures, and high fertilizer prices have reduced demand for agricultural day labor for primera planting, limiting income during a seasonally critical period for local employment of the poorest households. High production costs have caused a decrease in area planted and reduced fertilizer use. To meet their minimum food needs, these households reduce the quantity of food in their diet and resort to atypical labor migration.

In June, the Western Highlands is classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), as the lean season began atypically early for many households, driving early market dependence for their food. This area has a single annual cycle of basic grain cultivation from which poor households obtain harvests for their consumption that can last two to three months. In 2025, for the third year, poor households had well below-average yields, reducing their capacity to secure reserves for consumption, intensifying the purchase of basic grains and indebtedness. Given the lack of savings and reserves, these households enter the lean season with high dependence on the market and debts to which they have resorted to cover their food expenses. The lower demand for agricultural labor for planting work, due to high temperatures and irregular rainfall, is affecting the availability of income that the poorest households typically have at this time. To guarantee basic food intake, they are decreasing the quantity of food in their family diet and using strategies such as migration to atypical locations and involving other household members.

• The persistence of El Niño conditions is expected until early 2027, with erratic and below-average rainfall and above-normal temperatures, which would prolong and intensify the canícula anticipated between late June and mid-August.
• Above-normal temperatures would persist throughout the projection period, while below-average and erratic rainfall would continue through November 2026 (Figure 2), reducing soil moisture and increasing the risk of stress on primera crops, particularly in the Dry Corridor. These conditions would favor the proliferation of pests and diseases.
• The persistence of erratic rainfall and below-average and high temperatures, together with the accumulated delays of the primera, could delay the postrera plantings between September and October and reduce harvests to below-average levels.
• The hurricane season is expected to be below average in the Atlantic basin, but above average in the Eastern Pacific.
• National maize production (primera and postrera) could be in ranges close to average, but slightly below 2025 levels. However, maize production by smallholder rainfed farmers, especially in the Dry Corridor, would be substantially below average due to losses caused by unfavorable weather conditions and reduced or no use of fertilizers and pesticides.
• Local bean production (primera and postrera) is expected to remain below average, following the trend of recent years, due to a reduction in areas planted in both cycles, given the crop's high susceptibility to irregular rainfall and temperatures.
• Despite reductions in local production from the primera and postrera harvests, it is expected that the national availability of maize and beans will remain within average ranges, due to tariff-free quotas and above-average imports.
• Agricultural labor demand is expected to be below average in surplus basic grain production areas (primera and postrera). Likewise, local labor demand, which comes from small-scale producers, could be lower than typical due to high production costs and poor performance of the rainy season. While labor demand would continue to be stable for other commercial crops (coffee, African palm, sugar, fruits and vegetables).
• Cardamom production could be lower than last year. Farms continue in the process of recovery and/or reestablishment after the fires and high temperatures that affected them in 2024. Additionally, the persistence of high production costs (fertilizers and pesticides) could affect the plants, decrease yields, and reduce labor demand for the harvest.
• Maize prices are expected to be above last year's values and the five-year average. While tariff-free imports will contribute to maintaining grain availability, lower domestic production will contribute to keeping prices at elevated levels. Subsistence households will need to increase their market purchases, as they will not have harvests for own consumption.
• Bean prices will likely remain below the five-year average, although slightly above the values observed in 2025, driven primarily by the continuation of tariff-free imports. However, the reduction in domestic production, the increase in production costs, and the greater market demand from subsistence households exert persistent pressure on prices.
• Diesel prices, gasoline, and fertilizer prices are expected to remain above last year due to global trade disruptions. Fuel prices would remain above the five-year average and fertilizer prices above last year’s due to increases in raw material costs, particularly for nitrogen-based formulas such as urea. Inflation could remain near the 5 percent threshold due to increases in fuel, transportation, and food costs.

Humanitarian food assistance

The Regional Humanitarian Pooled Fund for Latin America and the Caribbean (RHPF LAC), managed by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), manages the contribution from the U.S. government, including a 60 million USD fund allocated for Guatemala. These funds will serve to support a multisectoral response that includes food security, nutrition, health, water, sanitation and hygiene, as well as shelter and protection activities. Approximately 34 million USD were allocated for the implementation of food security interventions for Chiquimula, Alta Verapaz, Quiché, and Huehuetenango. The funds will be executed during the months of July to September by WFP, World Vision, Save the Children, CARE International, Action Against Hunger (ACH), and Catholic Relief Services (CRS). The assistance will be provided through cash transfers of 150 USD per household per month for three months (July, August, September). At present, FEWS NET does not have access to details of the beneficiary numbers per municipality.

At the national level, high market dependence and high prices will continue limiting food access, maintaining Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through January 2027. However, between June and September, a period that coincides with the peak of the lean season, a growing proportion of poor households in the Dry Corridor, southern Alta Verapaz, and the Western Highlands will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3). In these areas, from October through January, seasonal improvements will allow many households to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, but the poorest households will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to recurrent losses of subsistence production, low income, and high market dependence.

Between June and September, poor households in the Dry Corridor will continue to depend on the market and will not have typical income for the season from work in basic grain crops of the primera and postrera seasons, classifying them in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The reduction and irregularity of rainfall, high temperatures, and the increase in agricultural input costs have led surplus farmers to cut production expenses through reduced hiring of labor. At the same time, delays in basic grain harvests will prolong dependence on food purchases. To maintain minimally adequate consumption, poor households will reduce portions and frequency of meals and will also employ coping strategies such as atypical migration to non-traditional locations and the sale of productive assets. Starting in October, seasonal improvements in food availability and access will allow many households to improve their consumption and be classified in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through January. Basic grain harvests, although below average, will allow households that planted to obtain some harvests covering one or two months of self-sufficiency. In October, the high-labor-demand season begins for commercial crops, particularly coffee, which offers temporary employment opportunities both within the country and in Honduras. Production and wage values are expected to be in average ranges. This combination of increased seasonal income and availability of grains from their own harvest, although below average, will relieve market dependence for a few months. However, a significant proportion of poor households will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through January, as their basic grain harvests will be minimal or nonexistent due to crop damage, smaller cultivated areas, and reduced or no use of inputs, forcing continued market dependence. Following several consecutive years of low yields, much of the income received during this period will be used for debt payment and basic food. To have minimally adequate food consumption, these households will continue to reduce the quantity of food and use coping strategies that put their livelihoods at risk, such as the sale of productive assets.

In southern Alta Verapaz, most households will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through September. Low income from agricultural labor, lack of food reserves, and prolonged dependence on markets will continue to restrict food access. To meet their basic food needs, households will reduce the amount of food in their diets and employ negative coping strategies. Starting in October, some households will experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through January 2027 as food consumption will temporarily improve due to seasonal income from labor. The start of the high-labor-demand season in coffee, cardamom, sugar, African palm, and fruit production, both within and outside the department, will increase income-generating opportunities. Locally, coffee and cardamom constitute key sources of income, either for sale in the case of small producers, or for income generation in the case of agricultural day laborers. The cardamom sector will continue to recover from the damage suffered in 2024. Yields of both crops may be affected by high temperatures, rainfall deficits, and limited access to fertilizers and pesticides/fungicides. Nevertheless, coffee production on commercial farms and labor demand are expected to be in average ranges. Likewise, late primera harvests, although below average, are expected to temporarily reduce food expenditures, but high food and input prices will cause households to continue resorting to strategies such as purchasing on credit and taking out loans. The poorest households that have suffered consecutive impacts to their livelihoods that depend locally on these employment sources and that failed to harvest in the primera cycle, will resort to reducing food portions, as well as migration of more household members and sale of productive assets, and will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through January.

In the Western Altiplano, the poorest households will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until September, given depleted food reserves, lower labor income, and high costs of food, fuel, and transportation. After starting 2026 without reserves due to losses from the previous cycle, these households will extend market purchases due to delays and low yields of staple grain harvests. Elevated production costs will continue to limit demand for agricultural labor, reducing income amid high food and input prices. To ensure a minimally adequate household diet, poor households will reduce the quantity of food and apply strategies such as additional migration of household members and the sale of productive assets. Starting in October, the seasonal increase in labor demand for the coffee harvest, both locally and in Mexico, will increase income. Although annual staple grain harvests will be below average, they will allow reserves for one or two months, improving food consumption, and households will be classified in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) until January. However, pockets of the population will still exist that lack their own staple grain production and will remain highly dependent on the market and indebted from consecutive years of crop losses. To cover their basic food needs, they will have to reduce the quantity of food consumed and resort to coping strategies such as migration of more household members and will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until January 2027.

Early warning of acute food insecurity outcomes requires forecasting months in advance to provide decision-makers with sufficient time to budget, plan, and respond to expected humanitarian crises. However, due to the complex and variable factors that influence acute food insecurity, definitive predictions are impossible. Scenario Development is a methodology that allows FEWS NET to meet decision-makers’ needs by developing a “most likely” scenario of the future. 

FEWS NET’s scenario development process applies the Disaster Risk Reduction framework and a livelihoods-based lens to assess acute food insecurity outcomes. A household’s risk of acute food insecurity depends not only on hazards (such as drought) but also the household’s vulnerability to these hazards (e.g., the level of dependence on rainfed crop production for food and income) and coping capacity (which considers both the household’s ability to cope with a given hazard and the use of negative coping strategies that harm future capacity). To evaluate these factors, FEWS NET bases this analysis on a strong foundational understanding of local livelihoods. FEWS NET’s scenario development process also accounts for the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework; the Four Dimensions of Food Security; and UNICEF’s Nutrition Conceptual Framework, and is closely aligned with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analytical framework.

• How does FEWS NET analyze current acute food insecurity outcomes? FEWS NET assesses the extent to which households can meet their minimum caloric needs. This analysis converges evidence of current food security conditions with available direct evidence of household-level food consumption and livelihood change. FEWS NET also considers available area-level evidence of nutritional status and mortality, focusing on whether these reflect the physiological impacts of acute food insecurity. FEWS NET uses the globally recognized five-phase Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale to classify current acute food insecurity outcomes, and the analysis is IPC-compatible. In addition, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of ongoing humanitarian food assistance.
• How does FEWS NET develop key assumptions underpinning the most likely scenario? A key step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is the development of evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security. These include hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will impact the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions about factors expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions form the foundation of the “most likely” scenario. 
• How does FEWS NET analyze projected acute food insecurity outcomes? Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET projects acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs over time. FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance.
• How does FEWS NET analyze humanitarian food assistance? Humanitarian food assistance – defined as emergency food assistance (in-kind, cash, or voucher) – may play a key role in mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes. FEWS NET analysts always incorporate available information on food assistance, with the caveat that such information can vary significantly across geographies and over time. In line with IPC protocols, FEWS NET uses the best available information to assess where food assistance is “significant” (defined by at least 25 percent of households in a given area receiving at least 25 percent of their caloric requirements through food assistance). In addition, FEWS NET conducts deeper analysis of the likely impacts of food assistance on the severity of outcomes, as detailed in FEWS NET’s guidance on Integrating Humanitarian Food Assistance into Scenario Development.