Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will persist despite seasonal improvements

• The highest area-level outcomes in Guatemala will be Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from June to September 2024. Irregular rainfall and high temperatures damaged staple grain crops from at least three past cycles, which will affect the availability of food, labor demand, and income sources of poor rural households. The population in need is estimated to be between 2.0 and 2.5 million people for this period, which coincides with the lean season.
• Some areas will improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) between October 2024 and January 2025. The cash crop harvest period will improve the income of households that migrate to production areas for employment. In addition, some households will benefit from maize and bean harvests which, despite being below normal, are likely to prevent market dependence for a few months. 
• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will persist in some areas between October 2024 and January 2025. Households without reserves of self-produced staple grains will continue to spend a large portion of their income on the purchase of food and will not experience improvements in consumption. An estimated 1.5 and 2 million people will continue to be in need.
• The areas of greatest concern are the Dry Corridor, Alta Verapaz, and Altiplano, where consecutive climate shocks have reduced the resilience of poor households. Weather conditions are likely to generate excess rainfall and humidity, which would continue to affect their livelihoods.

Reduced harvests of staple grains will prolong market dependence for food access

Households in the Dry Corridor, Alta Verapaz, and Altiplano will experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes from June to September due to prolonged dependence on food purchases following crop losses in past seasons and the reduction in locally-contracted day labor for typical agricultural activities following a prolonged abnormal dry spell. Reduced rainfall and high temperatures caused a prolonged dry spell that delayed the planting of the 2024 primera crop, resulting in replanting and smaller cultivation areas. The subsequent delay in harvests will prolong market dependence. Households' purchasing power will be below normal due to a reduction in labor demand and income at the local level for seasonal jobs related to the cultivation of staple grains, as well as persisting high food and transportation prices. To cover their basic food needs, households will adjust the amount of food consumed and resort to using negative coping strategies that affect their livelihoods. 

Households (and more members than normal) will have to migrate further and for longer periods of time in search of agricultural wage labor. In addition, they will resort to negative coping strategies such as selling productive assets and adjusting the quality and quantity of food consumed to cover their minimum food needs, and will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from October to January. However, areas where households achieved better staple grain harvests could experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. As of October, the income generated locally by hiring agricultural labor for the postrera cropping cycle, by selling part of the production, or by receiving day worker wages for the coffee and cardamom harvest will be lower than normal, due to the reduction in production caused by the prolonged abnormal dry spell that partially or totally damaged these crops. From October to January, cash crops will be harvested in different areas of the country, and households will migrate to cash crop farms to work for a period of two to four months. The increase in income and staple grain reserves for those who managed to produce crops will improve food consumption, which will allow many households to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. However, households that were unable to harvest staple grains will continue to rely on the market for longer periods of time. These households will quickly use their income to buy staple foods and pay off debts and will resort to using other coping strategies indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes to cover their minimum food needs. 

Purchasing power will be reduced due to high food prices. While year-on-year inflation has slowed, food prices remain above average. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) will continue its upward trend with slight monthly increases driven by rising staple food prices (such as tortillas and vegetables) and transportation. Maize and bean prices remain at between 10 to 25 and 25 to 45 percent above the five-year average, respectively, given the distortion of seasonal trends due to the recurrent climate shocks since 2019/20. Households will have to allocate a greater proportion of their income to food purchases and for transportation or fuel. Purchasing power will be even more restricted for households in the Dry Corridor, Alta Verapaz, and Altiplano which have been market-dependent for a longer time.

The forecast of an atypically active hurricane season could lead to irregular and above-average rainfall through January 2025. These conditions will increase the risk of flash floods, river overflows, and landslides, especially in riverine areas. The increase in humidity could trigger the proliferation of pests and diseases that will likely affect crops, especially beans. These effects will likely decrease the yields of staple grains, limiting availability at the local level, increasing behaviors such as hoarding and speculation, which all could cause prices to increase further.

Learn more

The analysis in this report incorporates information available as of June 1, 2024. Please follow these links for additional information:

• Previous Guatemala Food Security Outlook: February to September 2024
• Central America, Colombia, Venezuela, and Haiti Seasonal Monitoring – June 2024
• Overview of FEWS NET's Scenario Development Methodology
• FEWS NET's approach to estimating population in need
• Description of ICF and compatible ICF analysis 
• FEWS NET's approach to analyzing humanitarian food assistance

Agriculture is the foundation of the national and rural households’ economies in Guatemala. Agricultural activities are governed by weather patterns, mainly due to the existence of two rainy seasons, separated by a period of intense heat. These rains mark the start of crop planting and are essential for crop development. Too much or too little rainfall negatively impacts crops, causes delays in planting and harvesting times, and encourages the proliferation of pests and diseases. Small-scale farmers, who rely on rainfed agriculture, mainly grow maize and beans for their own-consumption. The primera cycle is mainly used to grow maize, while the postrera cycle is primarily beans. In Altiplano, there is a single annual planting cycle of staple grains, while in the northern region, the second cycle occurs a little later (late postrera). 

The hurricane season typically begins in June and ends in November, although in recent years, it has extended into December. Excessive rainfall, accompanied by winds and storm activity, can lead to flooding, river overflows, landslides, and damage to crops and infrastructure. One of the most intense seasons was recorded in late 2020, when two consecutive hurricanes, Eta and Iota, inflicted major damage on  infrastructure, agriculture, and housing, causing the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people, mainly in the northern and northeastern areas of the country. In Alta Verapaz, in the area near the Polochic River, soil damage is still present due to the amount of sand and sediment that covered the fertile land. 

The peak season of income generation in rural areas is closely linked to seasonal production cycles. At the local level, the activities linked to the production of staple grains, coffee, and cardamom are a source of income for day laborers who are employed locally and small-scale producers who sell part or all of their crops. From October through February/March, the harvest of cash crops, such as sugar cane and coffee, significantly increases labor demand for poor rural households that migrate for employment. The availability of casual employment abroad also experiences peaks in these periods: in Mexico or Honduras on coffee and fruit farms, among others. Dry spells, frost, or excessive and/or irregular rainfall can harm these sources of income, mainly for small-scale producers by limiting the sale of products and the labor demand. In recent years, climate variations have affected the coffee production of small-scale farmers, and low market prices have limited the sale of cardamom. 

Permanent migration to the United States has increased in recent years, especially since the pandemic. Remittances sent throughout the year by migrants, and to a greater extent at the end of the year, stimulate the local economy by allowing the purchase of products within the community and the hiring of agricultural and construction laborers; representing a crucial source of income for many households.

In rural areas, the lean season is characterized by the depletion of subsistence staple grain reserves, reduced income-generating opportunities, and seasonal increases in food prices. The period between June and August marks the peak of this period: when prices of staple grains tend to rise as domestic harvests decline. For several years domestic production of black beans has been lower due to high production costs and the crop’s susceptibility to climate impacts.  

The general evolution of inflation since the pandemic also impacts food security in Guatemala. general price levels have have experienced significant variations since 2020 due to multiple factors such as disruptions in supply chains, limitations on the transportation of cargo and passengers, volatility in the price of cereals and oil on an international scale, and the rise in interest rates. In mid-2020, significant increases in inflation were recorded due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Since 2021, the increase in inflation worsened due to the rapid increase in the international price of fertilizers and fuels, which put pressure on local prices until inflation reached its highest point in February 2023. Year-on-year inflation has since slowed but food prices remain above average. 

Early warning of acute food insecurity outcomes requires forecasting outcomes months in advance to provide decision makers with sufficient time to budget, plan, and respond to expected humanitarian crises. However, due to the complex and variable factors that influence acute food insecurity, definitive predictions are impossible. Scenario Development is the methodology that allows FEWS NET to meet decision makers’ needs by developing a “most likely” scenario of the future. The starting point for scenario development is a robust analysis of current food security conditions, which is the focus of this section.

Key guiding principles for FEWS NET’s scenario development process include applying the Disaster Risk Reduction framework and a livelihoods-based lens to assessing acute food insecurity outcomes. A household’s risk of acute food insecurity is a function of not only hazards (such as a drought) but also the household’s vulnerability to those hazards (for example, the household’s level of dependence on rainfed crop production for food and income) and coping capacity (which considers both household capacity to cope with a given hazard and the use of negative coping strategies that harm future coping capacity). To evaluate these factors, FEWS NET grounds this analysis in a strong foundational understanding of local livelihoods, which are the means by which a household meets their basic needs. FEWS NET’s scenario development process also accounts for the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework; the Four Dimensions of Food Security; and UNICEF’s Nutrition Conceptual Framework, and is closely aligned with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analytical framework.

Key hazards

Prolonged abnormal dry spell: In the first few months of the year, and until the arrival of the rains between April and May, there is typically light rainfall that keeps the soil moist. However, below-average accumulated precipitation has persisted since January 2024. The reduction in rainfall intensified and spread throughout the country month after month, eventually resulting in deficits greater than 50 percent in the northern and northeastern areas and less than 50 percent in the rest of the country for the period between May 6 and June 5,. In addition, the high year-round temperatures peaked at up to 5 degrees Celsius above average in northern, eastern, and southern areas of the country. This has aggravated the loss of soil moisture, which in turn affects crops, leads to the proliferation of forest fires, and causes a significant deterioration in vegetation conditions. 

Crop production: Irregular rainfall and high temperatures from mid-2023 delayed the planting of postrera and late postrera staple grains in the 2023/24 season. Due to this delay, crops were in the last stages of development when rainfall decreased at the beginning of the year, which led to lower yields and lower-than-normal reserves.

In 2024, the extension of the dry spell and the delay in the arrival of the rains expected in April and May prevented the planting of primera staple grains on time. This delay resulted in a loss of seed, an increase in production costs, a decision not to plant or to plant in a smaller area, and the extension of this first agricultural period that overlapped with the postrera period. This situation is likely to harm final yields and the availability of homegrown grains for household consumption. The number of delayed planting days varied according to the geographical area of the country.

• In the higher altitude areas of the Altiplano, crops were planted roughly on time. However, crops were planted later than normal in lower areas due to the delayed arrival of the rains. In general, at the beginning of June they are reporting normal growth.
• In the south of the country, crops were planted approximately 15 days late with the arrival of more regular rainfall. By early June, they were in the early stages of growth. 
• The dry spell lasted longer in the Dry Corridor and the north of the country, where dry conditions also contributed to the spread of fires started by various factors, including scrub removal to clear the land before planting. The rains arrived in mid-June, with a delay of 30 days. By then, many farmers who had tried to plant on the traditional dates had lost the seeds. Due to the shift in planting dates, the last stages of crop development are likely to coincide with the seasonal rainfall peak of the second rainy period, which is likely to affect plants due to excess rainfall, winds, and humidity. This is why some farmers wait for the arrival of the rains to plant, replant, or plant in a smaller area, while others have decided not to plant to avoid the loss of their seeds and investment. 
• As for cash crops, coffee has been affected in various regions by the long dry spell and high temperatures, which caused erratic flowering and the dropping of beans. In the northern region, cardamom plants suffered from the extensive period of heat and lack of rainfall. This affects small-scale producers who sell their products locally and day laborers who sell their labor locally for the upkeep of plantations and the harvest.

Off-own-farm sources income: June is the start of the peak of the lean season, during which poor households have limited options to generate income. Activities related to the planting of staple grains allow for some local day labor. However, income from this source of employment is lower than normal, due to climate irregularities that have affected planting times and reduced productive areas. 

Market supply: Markets are supplied with stored domestic maize and beans from the latest harvests and imports. Typical imports have also supplied the market, but high prices have remained. To maintain supply and balance out prices, the government authorized the duty-free import of white maize, yellow maize, black beans, and rice.

Household purchasing capacity: The CPI increased by 3.65 percent in May 2024 compared to May 2023. Food — particularly various vegetables, tortillas, and payment for water consumption — has the highest increase which in turn is driving the increase in headline inflation. Given the prolonged abnormal dry spell caused by the reduction in the flow of rivers and other water sources, there is an increased demand for water for everyday household use. The lower local production of staple grains, the flow of staggered harvests, and the high cost of fertilizers and cargo have maintained the high prices of white maize and black beans, which recorded an increase of 21 and 46 percent, respectively, compared to the five-year average. Rural households have reduced purchasing power due to lower income from hiring local agricultural labor during the staple grain planting season and the rapid use of income and savings generated in the last season of labor demand for cash crops. However, purchasing power will be even more restricted for households in the Dry Corridor, Alta Verapaz, and Altiplano, as they have been market dependent for their food for a longer time. 

Output of minor animal species: Poor rural households typically keep backyard poultry, both for their own-consumption and for sporadic sales in the village. In various regions of the country, but especially in the Dry Corridor and the North, households have reported an increase in illness and death due to the abnormal heat. In these areas, the price of pasture has increased the costs of maintaining cattle, as grazing land at a local level has dried up due to poor climate conditions and farmers must transport fodder from other areas of the country or opt for other types of more expensive food. 

Humanitarian food assistance – defined as emergency food assistance (in-kind, cash, or voucher) – may play a key role in mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes. FEWS NET analysts always incorporate available information on food assistance, with the caveat that information on food assistance is highly variable across geographies and over time. In line with IPC protocols, FEWS NET uses the best available information to assess where food assistance is “significant” (defined by at least 25 percent of households in a given area receiving at least 25 percent of their caloric requirements through food assistance); see report Annex. In addition, FEWS NET conducts deeper analysis of the likely impacts of food assistance on the severity of outcomes, as detailed in FEWS NET’s guidance on Integrating Humanitarian Food Assistance into Scenario Development. Other types of assistance (e.g., livelihoods or nutrition assistance; social safety net programs) are incorporated elsewhere in FEWS NET’s broader analysis, as applicable.

There are projects from various international organizations that consider the delivery of humanitarian food assistance in different municipalities in Guatemala. However, this assistance is targeted and neither population nor calorie coverage is sufficient to change the area-level food security classification. 

Based on the analysis of food security conditions, FEWS NET then assesses the extent to which households are able to meet their minimum caloric needs. This analysis converges evidence of food security conditions with available direct evidence of household-level food consumption and livelihood change; FEWS NET also considers available area-level evidence of nutritional status and mortality, with a focus on assessing if these reflect the physiological impacts of acute food insecurity rather than other non-food-related factors. Ultimately, FEWS NET uses the globally recognized five-phase Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale to classify current acute food insecurity outcomes. In addition, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of ongoing humanitarian food assistance.

Dry Corridor: Poor households in the Dry Corridor have suffered from staple grain crop losses and below-average yields for two consecutive years. The production of staple grains in the last cycle was lower than normal, so these households started the year off with minimal or no reserves and having to rely on the market to meet food needs. Households are allocating a greater portion of their income to meeting their food needs, which then restricts the household's purchasing power. This year, the delay in the arrival of the rains limited the income-generating options of poor households for these months in the preparation and planting of staple grains. To cover their diet, these households are adjusting the quality and quantity of food in their daily diet, consuming less preferred foods and reducing the consumption of protein-rich foods, such as beef and chicken, which are already very expensive. In addition, to ensure consumption of the minimum diet, they are resorting to other coping strategies, such as the migration of other household members and the sale of productive assets. These households have started the lean season earlier than normal and are classified as Crisis (IPC Phase 3). 

Alta Verapaz: Following the impact of Hurricanes Eta and Iota in late 2020 and Hurricane Julia in 2022, the department has experienced a prolonged abnormal dry spell. In addition to the cultivation of staple grains, which are the most popular crop for both consumption and sale, other crops are produced, such as cardamom, coffee, bell peppers, chili, and fruits, which help generate income either by selling part of the harvest or being used locally. Poor households do not have reserves of staple grains, which has forced them to rely on purchases atypically early. They also have below-normal incomes due to lower demand for local labor for jobs related to the cultivation of staple grains. Other products grown by households within the same plot, such as fruits or herbs, cardamom, coffee, and cocoa (which households typically sell in small quantities) were also impacted by the lack of rainfall and the heat, reducing these resources. Due to the lack of rainfall, the rivers, wells, and springs that supplied households with water dried up, so access is limited and the water price is high, which is further restricting household purchasing power. To cover their food needs, households are resorting to the atypical migration of more family members and the sale of assets to cover their food, the cost of which is increasingly high. Households are also adopting food-based coping strategies, such as making adjustments to the quality and quantity of the food they consume and limiting themselves to a basic diet that is not very diverse and low in protein. As a result, they are experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.

Altiplano: The delay in the arrival and the subsequent erratic distribution of the rains caused damage to the only production cycle of staple grains in 2023, so households have had to rely on food purchases earlier than normal. In this area, poor households produce maize and beans for consumption. The harvests can typically last for two or three months, depending on the number of members in the household. However, due to the lower yields obtained in the last harvest, households started to buy staple grains in the first few months of the year. The income received during the last cash crop harvest season, particularly in coffee plantations outside their area of residence, was used for the payment of debts and the immediate purchase of staple foods. Without savings, households are resorting to credit to buy their food, are adjusting the amount of food in their diet, and more household members are migrating (and at further distances) to find employment to cover the family diet in the middle of the lean season, resulting in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Meanwhile, in border areas with Mexico and in tourist areas, where the local economy is stimulated by retail and services, households have better options to generate income but face high food prices that put pressure on the quality of their food, resulting in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Similarly, small-scale coffee producers have seen their livelihoods impacted over the past few years due to high production costs and low sales prices, which have forced them to resort to coping strategies to protect their assets and guarantee their food.

The remainder of the country is Stressed (IPC Phase 2), driven mostly by the high cost of food and transportation. Starting in 2020, following the restrictions imposed to stop the spread of COVID-19, then due to the increase in fertilizer and fuel prices, food and transportation prices increased and have not returned to pre-pandemic levels. Although there is an economic recovery at the national level, the pressure on the cost of the staple food basket has led to a recurrence of the use of savings, credits, and loans, and adjustments to the daily diet to meet food needs.

The next step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to develop evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security conditions. This includes hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will affect the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions on factors that are expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions underpin the “most likely” scenario. The sequence of making assumptions is important; primary assumptions (e.g., expectations pertaining to weather) must be developed before secondary assumptions (e.g., expectations pertaining to crop or livestock production). Key assumptions that underpin this analysis, and the key sources of evidence used to develop the assumptions, are listed below.

National assumptions 

• With the transition to the La Niña phenomenon and an atypically active hurricane season, above-average rainfall is expected through January 2025 with an irregular spatio-temporal distribution, as well as a hot season that is more humid than normal, thereby increasing the risk of flash floods, river overflows, and landslides. 
• Wetter conditions and the persistence of high temperatures will likely lead to an increase in the appearance of pests and diseases. 
• The harvests of the primera cycle are expected to be delayed due to the late arrival of the first rainy season (between two to four weeks late, depending on the region). Similarly, postrera crops are also expected to be delayed. 
• Local and nationwide maize production will likely be slightly below average, similar to 2023. Local and nationwide bean production will likely be below average, due to lower planting areas recorded in previous years and even less this year due to the shift in the production calendar, as well as high sensitivity to humidity and fungal diseases that will likely result in higher production costs. 
• The demand for local labor for the cultivation of primera and postrera staple grains will likely be below average, because of the climate effects that will likely jeopardize the normal growth of crops and high production costs. 
• Due to the irregular rainfall and high temperatures, the local production of cardamom, coffee, bell peppers, fruit trees, and other crops will be below average, limiting the income from the sale of these products to small-scale producers and from day laborers who are employed locally. 
• National coffee production for 2024/25 is expected to be close to the production levels of the 2023/24 period, and sugar production is expected to be in ranges similar to the previous year's harvest. 
• According to price projections prepared by FEWS NET, maize and bean prices are expected to remain between 10 to 25 and 25 to 45 percent above the five-year average, respectively. The distortion of seasonal trends due to the recurrent impact of climate phenomena since the 2019/20 business year and the high production costs, as well as the possible interruptions to the transportation of products due to damage to communication routes caused by excess rainfall, will keep prices high, similar to the levels of 2023 due to the greater availability of imported grain and the 2024 primera crops.

Humanitarian food assistance

National assumption

• Various projects from international non-governmental organizations have planned the delivery of humanitarian food assistance in different municipalities in Guatemala. However, this assistance is targeted and neither population nor calorie coverage are likely to be sufficient to change the area-level food security classification.   

Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET is then able to project acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs throughout the projection period. Similar to the analysis of current acute food insecurity outcomes, FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance. 

Dry Corridor: Dry Corridor households will continue to depend on the purchase of staple grains at high prices and will experience reduced income, due to a lower demand for local labor in staple grain and coffee production. With fewer reserves and incomes, households will adjust the amount of food in their diet and resort to critical coping strategies such as atypical temporary migrations with more household members than normal in search of wages, in addition to selling assets, resulting in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through September. In September, the primera harvest season begins. However, due to delays and impacts during the primera planting season, as well as the irregularity in rainfall distribution that could affect the normal development of crops, harvests are expected to occur late with poor to no yields, especially for the poorest households. Postrera planting will be affected by the delays and losses of the primera cycle, so year-end production is expected to be staggered, delayed, and below normal. Households will not have the typical volumes of staple grains that would alleviate dependence on the market for several months, so they must continue to buy maize and beans at prices that will remain above the five-year average. At the local level, hiring for postrera farming activities will be limited. From October to January, the harvest of cash crops, particularly coffee, will demand labor. Households will migrate to cash crop farms to work for a period of two to four months. The income generated will be quickly used to pay off debts accumulated over the past months and buy staple foodstuffs, particularly maize. Households will have to migrate longer, include other household members in the generation of migration wages, sell assets, and continue to adjust the quality and quantity of food consumed to ensure a basic diet, remaining in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Some pockets of the population that achieved better harvests could experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes for a few months at the end of the season of high labor demand. 

Alta Verapaz: Primera staple grain harvests and reserves will be below average.  and market purchases will therefore intensify in the next few months. In addition, companion crops within family plots dried up during the prolonged abnormal dry spell, so producers and day laborers employed locally in the cardamom and/or coffee harvest will not have this income. Households will not have staple grain harvests at the typical times, while the volumes produced will be below average or zero for those who did not plant this crop cycle. Households will be reliant on purchased food which will further restrict the purchasing power of households whose expenditures have risen since the start of the year due to early market dependence and the high price paid for water during the last abnormal dry spell. Households will not have the typical income from the sale of companion crops from their plots (such as fruit trees, cardamom, chili, and bell peppers) or day labor. To meet their food needs, households will have to resort to strategies such as making family members unaccustomed to working take on employment, experiencing atypical migration out of their residences at atypical times, and cutting the amount of food in their family diet, and will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through September. In October the cash crop harvest outside areas of residence begins, which allows household members to work on oil palm, sugarcane, coffee, and melon plantations. In addition, the primera harvests, although late and below average, will alleviate dependence on market purchases for those who planted this cycle for several months. Due to the increase in migration wages, households will improve their purchasing power for a few months, which will allow them to include more quantity and diversity of food in their diet, so many households will likely be classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2). However, for poor households in the southern areas of the Department that have several staple grain cycles with below-average yields and irregular incomes, and for some pockets of the population in the rest of the department that have not managed to plant primera crops, the increase in casual agricultural employment due to migration will not significantly improve their diet, as resources will be quickly used to pay off debts and buy staple foods. These households will continue to use strategies such as portion control and intensification of atypical migration to ensure their staple diet, and will continue to be classified as Crisis (IPC Phase 3). 

Altiplano: The poorest households in Altiplano will have to rely on the purchase of staple grains for a longer period than normal due to the delay in planting and below-average yields. Most households will experience a seasonal improvement with the increase in income during the season of high demand for agricultural labor, but this will be partially limited by the high cost of food which will lead to households allocating a greater portion of family expenditure to purchases. Due to a lower income from hiring for all jobs that involve the cultivation of staple grains, households will have to resort to the atypical migration of more household members who would traditionally stay at home, intensify the sale of poultry and other minor species, sell productive assets, and restrict the amount of food in the family diet to cover their basic diet, and will experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through September. In October, labor demand for the coffee harvest typically increases, although demand is expected to be around average on large cash crop farms outside the area of residence, while local demand will likely be below average. Staple grain harvests could be delayed due to delayed planting and excess rainfall, landslides, and winds (lodging), which could affect yields. In general, below-average harvests are still expected to prevent market purchases in the last two months covered by this outlook. The income generated by temporary migration work will help partially improve consumption, as long as the coffee harvest continues and the income stream is constant. Households will continue to face high food prices, but due to the harvest of staple grains, which is still below normal and will allow households to self-supply, and the increase in income from migration wages, they will be able to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through January. Pockets of the population in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will intensify the migration of more household members and will continue to make adjustments to the quality of their diet. Most small-scale coffee producers will continue with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, as they will not see substantial improvements even in the most important season for selling harvests due to below-normal yields, high levels of investment, and sales prices that do not improve or manage to cover their costs.

While FEWS NET’s projections are considered the “most likely” scenario, there is always a degree of uncertainty in the assumptions that underpin the scenario. This means food security conditions and their impacts on acute food security may evolve differently than projected. FEWS NET issues monthly updates to its projections, but decision makers need advance information about this uncertainty and an explanation of why things may turn out differently than projected. As such, the final step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to briefly identify key events that would result in a credible alternative scenario and significantly change the projected outcomes. FEWS NET only considers scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurrence.

National 

Rainfall in average ranges and average temperatures

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Improved rainfall performance in average ranges and regular distribution will likely benefit the development of staple grain crops and improve the yields of smallholder producers. The improvement in availability will likely prevent the purchase of these staple grains in the market, allowing households to acquire more varied foods and avoiding the use of strategies that affect their livelihoods, so classification in some areas would possibly rise to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in those areas.

Impact of a tropical storm or hurricane 

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: A tropical storm or hurricane would cause damage to homes, crops, and access roads, deteriorating the livelihoods of affected populations. The severity of damage is likely to depend on the area affected and the scale of the impact. These weather events could damage cash crops that are an important source of employment, cause people to move to safer areas, restrict the movement of people to areas of employment, and cause transportation and food prices to rise, causing more households to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes.