Forecasts indicate risk of a fourth consecutive year of low production in parts of the Dry Corridor

Despite the improvement in 2016 staple grain production in the Dry Corridor after the drought and near-total losses in 2015, harvests for small-scale farmers were still well below-normal, in some cases for the fourth consecutive year. Although there is no representative data available, reports and field visits have indicated that income generation during the period of high-demand for agricultural labor has been below-average. Due to these factors, very poor households in areas of the Western Highlands and eastern Dry Corridor are already entering Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The number of households in this situation is expected to increase until Primera season harvests in August 2017.

ENSO conditions are currently neutral, with a warming trend in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Although there remains significant uncertainty, there is an increased likelihood for El Niño conditions during the third quarter of 2017, with similar probability as a continuation of ENSO neutral conditions. Regardless of the ENSO conditions, it is likely that the rise in SSTs will suppress rainfall during the Primera season, which could adversely impact small-scale producers in the Dry Corridor with low crop yields. 

The shortage of drinking water will affect health conditions, compounding the food security issues faced by the poorest of the population since 2012. This is especially critical in view of the continuing poor coverage of health care services in rural areas of the country.