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Forecasts indicate risk of a fourth consecutive year of low production in parts of the Dry Corridor

  • Food Security Outlook
  • Guatemala
  • February - September 2017
Forecasts indicate risk of a fourth consecutive year of low production in parts of the Dry Corridor

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • Despite the improvement in 2016 staple grain production in the Dry Corridor after the drought and near-total losses in 2015, harvests for small-scale farmers were still well below-normal, in some cases for the fourth consecutive year. Although there is no representative data available, reports and field visits have indicated that income generation during the period of high-demand for agricultural labor has been below-average. Due to these factors, very poor households in areas of the Western Highlands and eastern Dry Corridor are already entering Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The number of households in this situation is expected to increase until Primera season harvests in August 2017.

    • ENSO conditions are currently neutral, with a warming trend in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Although there remains significant uncertainty, there is an increased likelihood for El Niño conditions during the third quarter of 2017, with similar probability as a continuation of ENSO neutral conditions. Regardless of the ENSO conditions, it is likely that the rise in SSTs will suppress rainfall during the Primera season, which could adversely impact small-scale producers in the Dry Corridor with low crop yields. 

    • The shortage of drinking water will affect health conditions, compounding the food security issues faced by the poorest of the population since 2012. This is especially critical in view of the continuing poor coverage of health care services in rural areas of the country.

    Figures

    Figure 1

    Pronósticos indican riesgo de un cuarto año con baja producción en partes del corredor seco

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 2

    CALENDARIO ESTACIONAL PARA UN AÑO TÍPICO

    Source:

    Figure 3

    Áreas con períodos de al menos 30 días consecutivos con un bajo índice de agua en el suelo durante las temporadas agrícolas, en cada uno de los últimos tres años (2014 – 2016)

    Source: FEWS NET

    To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Learn more here.

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