Food assistance expected to improve food security through December

• Targeted food assisance by the government is expected to ease food insecurity for residents of drought-stricken municipalities from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity in the west and from Stressed to Minimal food insecurity (IPC Phase 1 due to food assistance) in the east between October and December.

• With the rains expected to end earlier than usual, the harvest forecast for Postrera bean crops in the eastern part of the country is slightly below-average. Farmers in the highlands (the altiplano) affected by the extended canícula (the break in the rainy season) will lose 75 to 100 percent of their maize and bean crops, while other parts of the area are expecting a normal harvest.

• Even with the expected improvement in income-generation from the coffee sector, the food security situation of households affected by the extended canícula in the course of next year will depend on whether or not food assistance is available.

The harvest of Primera staple grain crops consisting mainly of maize was affected by the extended canícula. The result was an overall nine percent shortfall in maize production across the country compared with yields for the 2013 Primera growing season. However, the hardest hit areas were primarily subsistence farming areas in which poor households lost 80 to 100 percent of their maize and bean crops, compared with their usual losses of no more than 50 percent in an average year. The Postrera growing season, on the other hand, began in late August and early September with the resumption in rainfall activity. Cumulative rainfall totals to date are near if not above-average thus far, ensuring normal crop growth and development. The Postrera growing season produces mainly bean crops. 

According to the FAO report as of September 1st, very poor households across the country have no staple grain reserves. This is unusual, in that these households normally rely on the harvest of Primera crops to replenish their supplies and rebuild their food reserves for the rest of the year. However, this year, food reserves from last year’s harvests were depleted two months sooner than usual due to the crop failures during last year’s Primera growing season.

According to forecasts by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) and the mid-September report by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 67 percent likelihood of El Niño conditions from October through December. Based on the rainfall records maintained by the INSIVUMEH (the National Seismology, Vulcanology, Meteorology, and Hydrology Center), September was a rainy month, particularly in Petén, the Northern Transversal Strip area, and the south, though the national weather service is still predicting below-normal rainfall for September and October in the Dry Corridor. In addition, the rainy season is still expected to end earlier than usual, between October 15th and 20th.

The flow of maize from the harvest in the south (in Suchitepéquez, Escuintla, and Retalhuleu departments) is affecting its price. Both wholesale and retail prices for maize are unchanged from last month and last year and are on par with the five-year average. On the other hand, black bean prices rose at the beginning of August, driven by the depletion of private inventories and the late start of the harvest in the eastern part of the country. The expected seasonal decline in wholesale prices finally materialized once the harvest got underway at the end of that month and the bean crop reached local markets, with prices falling 21.4 percent below figures for July and 29 percent below prices in August of last year. Bean imports from China and Mexico also contributed to the decline in prices by boosting domestic market supplies.        

The assumptions used by FEWS NET in establishing the most likely food security scenario for the period from July through December 2014 have been updated as follows:

• The government has declared a state of emergency as a result of the problems caused by the extended canícula in the middle of the year to help some 275,000 households in 16 departments (165 municipalities) across the country affected by the drought, which caused more than 80 percent of the crops of small subsistence farmers to fail. The government estimates the duration of this food assistance operation at six months. However, thus far, it has secured sufficient resources to meet nationwide needs only for the period from October through December. It recently made an appeal to the international community for additional resources to close the funding gap. The World Food Program (WFP) is also providing assistance to a number of municipalities in the eastern part of the country with internal and USAID funding as part of the government plan, also covering the period from October through December.
   
• Better crop management by coffee growers is improving the outlook for the 2014/2015 harvest season beginning in October. The harvest is expected to produce as much as 4.7 million quintals of coffee beans, which is seven percent more than last year’s closing figure of 4.4 million quintals. While still below pre-coffee rust outbreak levels, with a single harvest generating up to 4.85 million quintals of coffee beans, the larger output will heighten the demand for labor and, with the improvement in the selling price of coffee beans, the daily wage rate should also improve, moving closer to the average. However, income-generation will still fall short of the norm.

Food security among households affected by the extended canícula will be impacted by the start of the high-demand period for farm labor, which should be better this year than last year, with day laborers employed in the coffee harvest paid higher wages. This will strengthen household purchasing power, allowing for food purchase when farmers normally rely on their own harvests. In addition, the delivery of food assistance by the government and WFP will improve food availability for households between October and December, though the proposed rations (for a family of five) will not meet the energy requirements of target households, most of which are larger than that. Nevertheless, the combined effects of better incomes for day laborers, the seasonal decline in staple grain prices, and food assistance will improve food security.

Wages for unskilled labor, mainly in the coffee harvest, account for approximately 80 percent of the income of very poor households in the altiplano at this time of year, followed by proceeds from crop sales. An improvement in this main source of household income will shift households in Crisis into Stressed food insecurity, while food security in other municipalities in this area will remain Stressed through December due to other basic unmet needs and household debt.

Even with lower crop yields, the harvest of Postrera crops in the east will help improve food availability and food access, with some crops to be used for household consumption and others earmarked for sale. Stressed households in the east will experience Minimal food insecurity through the end of the year due to food assistance.In the rest of the country, such assistance will improve food availability for targeted households.