Coffee-dependent households still face Crisis conditions

• Food security conditions in highly coffee-dependent municipalities in eastern and highland areas of the country will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through the end of June. Between July and September, households in these areas will attempt to offset food consumption deficits created by two years of poor harvests and low incomes by resorting to negative coping strategies, which will put them in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
• Food security conditions in all other municipalities in the east and the western highlands will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through September. Pockets of households in these areas will be in Crisis through September, though they do not represent more than 20 percent of the total population in these areas.
• The development of El Niño conditions is expected to result in moderate losses of Primera crops harvested in August/September and Postrera crops harvested in November/December. This means that these harvests will not cover the food consumption deficits of households affected by crop failures for the last two years and reduced incomes due to coffee rust.

• The rainy season is underway in practically all parts of the country, with the southern coast and Boca Costa (Pacific foothills) and parts of Petén department showing the highest cumulative rainfall totals. The planting of staple grain crops for the Primera growing season in the western highlands, on the southern coast, in the Northern Transversal Strip, in Izabal department, and in highland areas of the eastern part of the country is already completed. Thus far, there are no reports of any problems with these crops. Crop planting activities in the rest of the country were expected to be completed by the end of May.

• According to a May 3 FAO report, the poorest households across the country have no staple grain reserves, except in the north where the harvest has just ended. While this is normal for this time of year, the fact that they were depleted two months sooner than usual is important, giving rise to an earlier than usual lean season.

• Based on forecasts by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) as of the middle of May, there is a high probability of the development of an El Niño event, with a 59 percent likelihood of this occurring during the three-month period from June through August. These forecasts uphold the cumulative rainfall outlook for the period from May through July issued by INSIVUMEH at the Regional Climate Forum, which forecast below-normal rainfall in the Dry Corridor, above-normal rainfall in the southwest, and near-average cumulative rainfall totals in the rest of the country during this three-month period.

• There have been some delays in deliveries of government-subsidized fertilizer and other farm inputs by the Ministry of Agriculture but in general, these supplies have reached subsistence farmers on time. Thus, their use should help create better conditions for crop growth and development over the next three months.

• April prices for black beans on both wholesale and retail markets were up slightly from the previous month though still below reported prices for the same time last year and under the five-year average. This price behavior is being driven by the recent good harvests by surplus farmers, the end of the growing period in Petén, and the practice of traders hoarding crops for release during months without any harvests. The sharp rise in red bean prices across the Central American region has not affected domestic prices for black beans. Prices for white maize are rising in line with normal seasonal trends, but are still down from last year and below the five-year average.

The current situation has not affected the assumptions used by FEWS NET in establishing the most likely food security scenario for the period from April through September 2014. A full discussion of this scenario can be found in the April through September 2014 Food Security Outlook for Guatemala.

• Predicted rainy season anomalies and below-average cumulative rainfall totals for the three-month period from May through July could damage and cause losses of Primera crops, particularly but not exclusively in areas within the Dry Corridor. This would reduce food reserves by August, just as the harvest is getting underway. In addition, a low soil moisture scenario for the planting of crops and possible ensuing rainfall deficit for the Postrera growing season would reduce crop yields for that season. The effects of these factors on crop production for both growing seasons will not be apparent until after the end of the current outlook period.

• Small coffee grower and day laborers dependent on work in the coffee harvest in highland and eastern areas of the country sustaining damage to last year’s Primera crops will be forced to resort to atypical coping strategies such as higher than usual levels of migration to the United States or rural-urban migration in order to meet their nonfood needs through the end of June. Thus, food security outcomes in these areas will be Stressed. There are also small pockets of households facing Crisis levels of food insecurity, though they do not represent more than 20 percent of the population of affected municipalities. The rest of the country will continue to experience Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1), although many of the poorest households are in the midst of the annual lean season.

• There are some municipalities in eastern and highland areas of the country in which the poorest households are expected to be forced to resort to asset stripping during the three-month period between July and September to cover shortfalls in household income and crop production over the last two years. Thus, these areas are facing Crisis conditions (Phase 3, IPC 2.0). Though conditions in all other municipalities in these two areas of concern will remain Stressed (Phase 2, IPC 2.0), there will be pockets of households in a more critical food security situation. As was the case in the previous three-month period, the rest of the country will continue to experience Minimal acute food insecurity (Phase 1, IPC 2.0). Female-headed households will be especially vulnerable to food insecurity due to their limited income-earning opportunities.