Below-average rainfall forecasts persist for the Primera season

• Although the annual lean season began two months earlier than usual this year, the majority of the country’s poorest households will be able to meet their basic food needs through this month, and remain at Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1).
• From April through June, reduced income from coffee-related activities and a premature dependence on market purchase will make it more difficult for day laborers in the western part of the country to meet their basic food needs, resulting in Stressed food security outcomes (IPC Phase 2). Similarly, several small localized populations in the eastern part of the country are also classified as Stressed.
• A high probability of the development of El Niño-like conditions continues during the second quarter of this year. Weather forecasts, however, are already showing irregularities and below-average cumulative rainfall totals for May to July, potentially jeopardizing staple grain crops during the Primera season.

• Harvests of staple grain crops in Petén Department and the Northern Transversal Strip got underway this past month and are expected to continue into April, where production levels are above-average. Surpluses of white maize and black beans have pushed down prices in both the wholesale and retail markets. Prices are currently below the five-year average and last year’s prices. Given that crop production in neighboring countries in 2013 was also average or above-average, national market inventories have increased, thus decreasing the volume of trade among countries. This trend is expected to continue through the next production cycle ending in August/September.
• A report from FAO on March 2 continued to show normal levels of staple grain reserves. However, field assessments found that reserves had already been depleted by the poorest households, and therefore their annual lean season has begun two months ahead of schedule.
• In February, two mild cold fronts produced above-average rainfall in the northern and Caribbean regions. According to INSIVUMEH (the National Seismology, Vulcanology, Meteorology, and Hydrology Institute), particularly in northern areas of the country, the cold front season is still ongoing and producing larger than usual amounts of rain, yet without significantly affecting crop production. On the contrary, these rains could create favorable soil conditions for the start of the Primera for staple grain crops.
• ANACAFE estimated 2013/2014 national coffee crop losses at approximately six percent below initial projections for the season. However, a field assessment by FEWS NET and Guatemala’s Food and Nutritional Security Ministry (SESAN) found that small coffee producers had sustained above-average losses. In Chiquimula and Jutiapa Departments, losses range from 35 to 65 percent. Due to a lack of storage facilities, small producers sold their crops in December, very close to harvest time, at prices 40 percent below last year’s sale prices and 23 percent below current production costs. Therefore, with the harvest already over, the rise in international coffee prices since February had no effect on small producers’ incomes or on unskilled day labor wages.
• Crop planting activities for the Primera season are already underway in certain parts of Alta Verapaz, where recent rains helped create soil water conditions conducive for farming. There are similar reports in the highland areas of San Marcos, while crop planting activities in the rest of the country are expected to get underway as usual based on seasonal rainfall between April and May.
• Taking into account the weather forecasts, the Ministry of Agriculture procured short-cycle maize and bean seeds tolerant to low rainfall and high temperatures. These seeds will be distributed in the western part of the country to farmers under the Family Farming Program (PAFFEC) and to farmers in the dry corridor identified by SESAN, given that these areas sustained previous losses in 2013.

The assumptions used by FEWS NET in establishing the most likely food security scenario for the period from January through June 2014 have been revised as follows:

• The rainy season is expected to start on time. In the Boca Costa (Pacific foothills) and in southwestern regions, it will begin between April 10 and 20, while in the Central Highlands (Meseta Central) it will begin between May 15 and 25.
• According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, there continues to be a 50 percent probability of the development of El Niño conditions beginning in June. INSIVUMEH is predicting below-normal levels of rainfall in the central highlands and the southeastern part of the country between May and July.

• The rainy season anomalies and below-average cumulative rainfall totals predicted from May through July could damage and cause Primera crop losses, particularly in areas within the dry corridor. The result would be fewer food reserves beginning in August, just as the harvest is getting underway. These effects, however, will not be apparent until after the end of the outlook period. FEWS NET will regularly monitor the development of El Niño conditions in the second half of the year, which could potentially affect staple grain production for the Primera season. The distribution of drought-tolerant varieties of seeds by the government could change the scenario.
• In spite of the early start of the lean season, the poorest households in eastern and western highlands are expected to be able to meet their basic food needs with recently earned income. Acute food insecurity in these areas, like in the rest of the country, is classified as Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through the end of March.
• By the second quarter of the year, households in highland areas that sustained 2013 Primera crop damage will be forced to resort to irreversible coping strategies, such as the selling of their land and work tools, or increasing migration to the United States to atypically high levels in order to meet their non-food needs. Therefore, food security outcomes in these areas will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2). The rest of the country will continue to experience Minimal food insecurity (IPC Phase 1). However, there are several small localized populations in the eastern part of the country also Stressed although the area itself is classified as Minimal. This particularly affects small coffee producers facing major crop losses from the last two years, while coffee sale prices are well below current production costs.