Delay in staple grain harvests prolongs the lean season

• Between August and September 2025, after at least two failed staple grain production cycles, the poorest households in diverse areas of the eastern and Highlands (Altiplano) regions and the department of Alta Verapaz have relied on market purchases, longer than is typical. This year, irregular rainfall and high temperatures delayed planting, extending the lean season by an additional month and increasing market dependence on food. With reduced income, due to fewer labor opportunities from the current agricultural cycle and above-average debt, households will resort to critical coping strategies to feed themselves and will therefore be classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
• Crisis outcomes (IPC Phase 3) will persist, particularly in some areas of the Dry Corridor and Alta Verapaz, between October 2025 and January 2026. Households in these areas suffered crop losses due to severe adverse weather conditions, which prevented them from producing staple grains for own consumption. Despite a temporary boost in income due to increased demand for agricultural labor, their limited grain reserves, along with their high level of debt, will force them to continue to depend on the market. The poorest rural households will not be able to improve their food consumption or meet their basic food needs due to ongoing debt and high market expenses.
• Some areas will improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity between October 2025 and January 2026. Household income will increase from labor demand for commercial crop production. Harvests from their own crops, although below normal, will temporarily ease expenses. These two seasonal improvements will allow these households to improve their food consumption.

Rainfall performance: The primera season staple grain planting cycle experienced delays of 20 to 40 days due to the late onset of rain and the high temperatures that have prevailed since the beginning of the year (Figure 1). Below-average and irregularly distributed rainfall have been characteristic of this primera season. Combined with atypical heat, the high rate of soil moisture loss, exacerbated by a longer-than-normal canícula (seasonal mid-summer dry spell), has led to an increase in pests and plant diseases.

Staple grain production: The negative impact of these conditions has been crop development remaining at intermediate stages between July and August, rather than typically being more advanced and nearing harvest. In the Dry Corridor, up to 17 consecutive days without rain have been recorded over the past 30 days. Since mid-July, maize crops in this area have shown signs of stress, and in specific locations, signs of withering are already visible. These climate anomalies particularly affect subsistence farmers who practice rainfed agriculture and depend entirely on rainfall for cultivation.

Food prices and expenditures: Staple grain prices remain high, putting pressure on household purchasing power. This month, staple grain prices were slightly above the five-year average (black beans by 6 percent, white maize by 2 percent, and rice by 11 percent). This was similarly reflected in the July Consumer Price Index (CPI), which stood at 100.81, showing a slight increase compared to the previous month and year. The food expenditure division has the largest influence on the monthly CPI, mainly driven by items such as tortillas and maize. However, to maintain grain supply, offset insufficient national production in 2024, and ensure household access, the government has allowed duty-free grain imports. Compared to last year, wholesale prices of beans and maize have decreased by 18 percent and 5 percent, respectively. Despite greater availability of lower-cost grains, the persistence of above-average prices means households must allocate a larger portion of their income to meet basic food needs.

Income from agricultural labor demand and debt: From April to August, opportunities for daily wage agricultural labor in rural areas typically decline. During this period, activities related to staple grain crops (land preparation, planting, maintenance, harvesting) typically provide local wages. However, due to climate-related disruptions that delayed the agricultural season and damaged crops, the demand for labor has been lower than normal. In order to replant or mitigate crop damage from pests, producers were forced to increase spending on agricultural inputs and reduce spending on labor. At the peak of the lean season from June to August, this decline in income—combined with prolonged market dependence to obtain staple foods—has further strained household purchasing power. Following partial or total losses in at least two grain harvest cycles, rural households that produce grains for own consumption have accumulated debt just to meet their basic food needs. These households are currently experiencing high levels of indebtedness due to complete dependence on the market. According to WFP data, 38 percent of respondents in its national monthly surveys reported cutting essential expenses in health and education in order to cover their food needs, representing an increase of 11 percentage points compared to last year.

FEWS NET’s scenario development process is used to develop evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security conditions. This includes hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will affect the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions on factors that are expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions underpin the “most likely” scenario. The sequence of making assumptions is important; primary assumptions (e.g., expectations pertaining to weather) must be developed before secondary assumptions (e.g., expectations pertaining to crop or livestock production). Key assumptions that underpin this analysis, and the key sources of evidence used to develop the assumptions, are listed below.

• Erratic rainfall and above-average temperatures could persist through January 2026. The combination of these two anomalies would increase soil moisture loss and favor the spread of pests and diseases, affecting the typical development of primera and postrera crops.
• The hurricane season is expected to be above average. The erratic temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall could cause excessive precipitation over short periods, leading to localized landslides and mudslides.
• The primera cycle and the only agricultural cycle in the Highlands (Altiplano) will end at least one month later than normal due to delayed planting, which will in turn delay the postrera planting season and postpone its harvest.
• National maize production is expected to be near average, while national bean production is expected to be below average.
• The variability of weather conditions more severely affects maize and bean harvests for smallholder farmers practicing rainfed agriculture. Harvests in the Highlands (their only yearly harvest) and in the north (postrera tardía) are expected to experience slightly below-average yields, while those in the Dry Corridor could experience losses greater than 60 percent.
• Staple grain prices will remain high. Compared to the five-year average, the price of maize will remain slightly above average in line with the typical seasonal increase, while the price of beans will continue to be high due to reduced national production from climate impacts.
• Increased use of fertilizers, pesticides, and seeds for potential replanting will raise production costs for farmers.
• At the household level, income from agricultural labor related to primera harvests and postrera planting will be below average due to producers cutting production costs by reducing labor demand.
• Expenditures on food and household indebtedness will remain higher than normal. Poor households will allocate more than 50 percent of their income to food purchases. Household indebtedness will persist due to the high cost of staple foods and the need to repay debts accumulated in previous months.
• Small-scale cardamom producers may see reduced income, as they have not yet been able to recover their farms after last year’s fires and drought.

Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET is then able to project acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs throughout the projection period. Similar to the analysis of current acute food insecurity outcomes, FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance. 

The first period of this outlook update, covering August and September, coincides with the peak of the lean season in August. Typically, this period of depleted grain reserves among poor and low-income households with limited agricultural labor opportunities ends in September with the harvest of maize and beans from the primera cycle. However, this year, persistently high temperatures and irregular, scarce rainfall not only delayed the typical planting dates by up to 40 days, but also led to significant soil moisture loss and an increase in pests and diseases. These factors caused damage to maize and bean crops, particularly among smallholder farmers relying on rainfed agriculture. As a result, harvests at the national level will be delayed by approximately one month and yields for small producers will be below normal. In the Highlands, in the north and in the south of the country, the impact of these climate conditions was less severe, and production will be slightly below average, while losses of over 50 percent are estimated for the Dry Corridor.

In addition, sporadic income from agricultural labor this season has been lower than typical due to the difficulties faced by surplus-producing farmers who normally provide local employment. After last year's prolonged drought caused grain crop losses, households have had to rely on market purchases of high-priced staple grains for longer than typical, leading to increased debt. The delayed harvests mean that households will need to continue depending on the market for food, and with limited income-generating options, their debt levels will increase further. Between August and September, the poorest households in the Dry Corridor, Alta Verapaz, and the Highlands will see Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. To ensure minimum food consumption, these households will adopt coping strategies such as reducing meal size and frequency, atypical migration of additional household members, and/or the sale of productive assets. Meanwhile, most rural areas of the country will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2), as households continue to face high food expenditures and disruptions to traditional livelihoods due to climate impacts. They will resort to strategies such as substituting less preferred or lower-quality foods, increasing the sale of small livestock, and cutting essential non-food expenses such as healthcare and education.

Starting in October, the arrival of grain harvests will temporarily ease dependence on the market for a few months. At the same time, the peak season for agricultural labor demand in large-scale commercial production (sugarcane, coffee, African palm, vegetables, and fruits) will boost average incomes for rural wage-dependent households. The exception will be the poorest households in the Dry Corridor, where extensive to total losses in primera subsistence production, along with delayed and reduced postrera planting areas, will prevent them from having their own maize and bean harvests. With no immediate availability or reserves, these households will have to continue to rely on the market. Similarly, the poorest households in Alta Verapaz, already burdened by debts incurred from poor harvests or atypical investments in replanting in previous years, and who have not been able to recover their livelihoods, will continue making adjustments to their diets. Even with seasonal migration labor income, they will be unable to avoid using negative coping strategies or increase the quantity of foods included in their diet. Therefore, they will continue experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity from October 2025 through January 2026, relying on strategies such as prolonged or expanded atypical migration and the sale of productive assets. For the rest of the country, seasonal events—harvests and temporary agricultural employment—will help improve basic diets and prevent the use of critical coping strategies. However, households will still face high and atypical staple grain prices due to staggered harvests and will therefore remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity through January 2026.

While FEWS NET’s projections are considered the “most likely” scenario, there is always a degree of uncertainty in the assumptions that underpin the scenario. This means food security conditions and their impacts on acute food security may evolve differently than projected. FEWS NET issues monthly updates to its projections, but decision makers need advance information about this uncertainty and an explanation of why things may turn out differently than projected. As such, the final step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to briefly identify key events that would result in a credible alternative scenario and significantly change the projected outcomes. FEWS NET only considers scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurrence.

Tropical Storm or Hurricane

Excessive rainfall and strong winds could cause damage to homes, crops, and access roads, deteriorating the livelihoods of affected populations. The severity of the damage would depend on the affected area and the magnitude of the impact. Commercial crops—which are important sources of employment—could be damaged, potentially leading to the displacement of people to safer areas, obstructing transportation to workplaces, and causing increases in transportation and food prices. As a result, more households could fall into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity.