Guatemala
Download Report
Download Report
- Localized Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in the Dry Corridor, Alta Verapaz, and parts of the Highlands of Guatemala. These outcomes are driven by the impacts of erratic rainfall and above-average temperatures, which led to crop losses among smallholder farmers during the 2025 primera (April-September) and postrera (September-November) seasons. In some areas of the Dry Corridor, prolonged dry spells (canícula), and high temperatures delayed primera planting by up to 40 days, triggering widespread crop losses. Many poor households suffered near-total maize and bean losses, and they now face rising food prices and mounting debt. However, national food availability remains stable due to imports and commercial production, as medium and large-scale producers have the means to invest in irrigation and pest management systems and can cope with the effects of erratic rainfall distribution.
- Primera and postrera crop production have been severely stressed by irregular precipitation and heat, delaying plantings and reducing yields for subsistence farmers. The 2025 primera harvest in September saw irregular rainfall distribution and above-average temperatures, leading to localized maize and bean losses among poor households. Most of Guatemala recorded poor results, especially the eastern Dry Corridor, while southern Guatemala saw more favorable harvests. Postrera planting, which typically occurs in September and October, faced delays in many areas due to erratic rainfall and the effects of primera losses, leaving crops in uneven stages of development and increasing the risk of below-average end-of-year yields.
- Erratic rainfall and above-average temperatures are expected to persist through early 2026, limiting soil moisture and reducing basic grain yields for small farmers. Postrera bean harvests will likely be below average, especially in northern crop areas, while cumulative stress from dryness and debt will constrain recovery even if the primera 2026 season begins under near-average conditions. The cold front season is forecast to be typical overall, but extreme low temperatures in the western highlands will cause freeze conditions in vegetable production zones, reducing income and food availability.
- Poor households will increasingly resort to negative coping strategies, such as reducing meal size and frequency, purchasing food on credit, atypical migration, and selling productive assets. Seasonal labor opportunities in coffee and sugarcane will provide short-term income between November and January, but these gains will not fully offset losses, as earnings will be used for debt repayment and staple grain purchases. Despite adequate national supply supported by imports and commercial farms, localized deficits and persistently high maize and bean prices — ranging from 5 to 15 percent above the five-year average — will continue to strain poor household’s purchasing power. Rising input costs and limited water access will further restrict subsistence farmers’ production capacity.
Figure 1
Source: FEWS NET
Figure 2
Source: FEWS NET
Figure 3
Source: USGS/FEWS NET
Figure 4
Source: USGS/FEWS NET
Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Guatemala FEWS NET Analysis Note November 2025: Impacts of Dry Conditions on Food Security in Guatemala, October 2025 - May 2026, 2025.
An analysis note is a FEWS NET product that provides targeted information on food security-related issues across FEWS NET geographies.