Seasonal improvements likely later in the year despite multiple shocks

• In Haiti, widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely to persist throughout the outlook period. With food inflation hovering around 40 percent, insecurity continuing to disrupt supply chains, market functionality, and access to livelihoods, and minimal seasonal improvements in prices and food availability from the spring harvest, very poor urban and rural households, and internally displaced populations are expected to struggle to meet their food needs. Cite Soleil is expected to remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) as gang violence severely restricts access to livelihoods and limits market functionality. 
• Although some parts of the country will improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) with the fall harvest and seasonal increases in income towards the end of the year, the population in need is not likely to fluctuate significantly. 
• In Central America, needs are expected to be highest between June and September, coinciding with the peak of the lean season. Climate shocks in recent years resulting in below-average staple grain harvests, as well as persistently high prices, have negatively impacted poor households’ resiliency and many are relying on unsustainable coping strategies to cover their food needs during the lean season. Multiple parts of the Dry Corridor, as well as northern Honduras and Alta Verapaz and Altiplano in Guatemala will experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. 
• The situation will gradually improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes for most areas in Central America between October 2024 and January 2025 with the primera and postrera harvests and seasonal increases in labor demand for cash crops. However, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) conditions are expected to persist in some parts of Guatemala where seasonal improvements will not be sufficient to overcome agricultural losses, limited food stocks, and heavy market reliance amid above-average prices. 
• Although a portion of very poor households are likely to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist at area level across Venezuela through January. Progressive macroeconomic improvements, the reactivation of economic and agricultural activities, informal dollarization, and recent increases in public spending have combined to improve food access compared to previous years. 
• From October to January, a slight reduction of the population in need is anticipated driven by the holiday season’s economic impacts. The population of concern is generally spread across all urban and peri-urban areas and is made up of those who earn income in the local currency and have limited access to international remittances and/or social safety net programs

Guatemala

Key messages

• The highest area-level outcomes in Guatemala will be Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from June to September 2024. Irregular rainfall and high temperatures damaged staple grain crops from at least three past cycles, which will affect the availability of food, labor demand, and income sources of poor rural households. The population in need is estimated to be between 2.0 and 2.5 million people for this period, which coincides with the lean season.
• Some areas will improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) between October 2024 and January 2025. The cash crop harvest period will improve the income of households that migrate to production areas for employment. In addition, some households will benefit from maize and bean harvests which, despite being below normal, are likely to prevent market dependence for a few months. 
• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will persist in some areas between October 2024 and January 2025. Households without reserves of self-produced staple grains will continue to spend a large portion of their income on the purchase of food and will not experience improvements in consumption. An estimated 1.5 and 2 million people will continue to be in need.
• The areas of greatest concern are the Dry Corridor, Alta Verapaz, and Altiplano, where consecutive climate shocks have reduced the resilience of poor households. Weather conditions are likely to generate excess rainfall and humidity, which would continue to affect their livelihoods. 

For more information, including events that would change the most likely scenario, see the Guatemala Food Security Outlook from June 2024 to January 2025.

Haiti

Key messages

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected in Haiti between June and September 2024. This situation is due to food inflation of around 40 percent and ongoing insecurity that disrupts supply chains. Despite forecasts of minimal seasonal improvements in prices and food availability after the spring harvests, low-income households are expected to continue to face significant challenges in meeting their food needs.
• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will persist between October 2024 and January 2025. Very poor households in urban and rural areas and displaced persons will be the worst affected. However, an improvement from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) is expected in the Southern, Southeastern, Northern, Western, and Central municipalities. Monetary transfers from migrants during the end-of-year festivities will boost income, stimulating the resumption of economic activities, notably informal petty trade and improving traffic flow on the main roads. 
• The affected areas are the districts of Port-au-Prince, Croix-des-Bouquets, and La Gonâve in the West department, Môle-Saint-Nicolas in the lower North-West department, Saint-Marc in the Artibonite department, and Baradères in the Nippes department. The commune of Cité Soleil will be the only area in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). 
• Emergency food assistance is proving insufficient to meet needs. From January to March 2024, the total number of beneficiaries of emergency food aid covered less than 4 percent of the total population, a trend set to continue until January 2025. However, the population in need is estimated to be between 2 to 2.5 million people by January 2025.

For more information, including events that would change the most likely scenario, see the Haiti Food Security Outlook from June 2024 to January 2025.

Remotely monitored countries

El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua 

Key messages

• The areas of greatest concern, located in the Dry Corridor, and households in northern Honduras, will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes from June to August 2024 due to agricultural losses in 2023 and above-average food prices. The population in need (between 500,000 to 749,999 people) will peak in August. Subsequently, an improvement towards Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes is expected due to better results in the primera and postrera harvests, which will increase the availability of food reserves in these households, coupled with a seasonal increase in revenue from October onwards. However, some pockets of households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will persist, due to agricultural losses related to excessive rainfall.
• Rural households located in the Dry Corridor of El Salvador and Nicaragua will form pockets of population in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). These households experienced agricultural losses of more than 50 percent last year, significantly reducing their reserves that have been totally consumed to date, forcing them to resort to purchases atypically early. These households represent a population in need of between 100,000 and 249,999 people in each of these countries as of August but will subsequently decrease gradually as improvements in agricultural outcomes allow a shift to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes until January 2025.
• The majority of very poor households in rural areas in the rest of the countries will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) throughout the analysis period. Although they will experience seasonal deterioration until August, an improvement is expected with the start of the primera harvest.

For more information, including events that would change the most likely scenario, see the El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua Remote Monitoring Report from June 2024 to January 2025.

Venezuela 

Key messages

• The highest area-level outcome in Venezuela will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) between June 2024 and January 2025. Following the economic crisis that has affected millions of households, macroeconomic improvements and the reactivation of various economic and agricultural activities have reduced the population in need. However, a portion of the poorest households are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through January. Needs are estimated to persist for between 1.0 and 1.5 million people.
• After several years of some of the highest inflation rates in the world, monthly and annual rates are expected to stay below 5 and 100 percent, respectively, through January. This is a relief for poor households who have had their budgets pressured by volatile prices in the local currency. The continuation of informal dollarization and recent increases in public spending — raising some vouchers and improving the content of subsidized food boxes (CLAP) — are combining to improve food access. 
• Given the macroeconomic context, the population of concern continues to be very poor households that lack income sources in USD and that have limited access to international remittances and/or social programs. Although they are spread across all urban and peri-urban areas of the country, there will be concentrations around the capital and in Anzoátegui, Monagas, Sucre, and Zulia states. 
• Between June and September, the food security situation is expected to remain stable. Between October and January, a slight improvement is expected due to the holiday season, which brings holiday bonuses, an increase in labor demand, and higher remittance flows to the country. A portion of households are expected to improve from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during this time.

For more information, including events that would change the most likely scenario, see the Venezuela Remote Monitoring Report from June 2024 to January 2025.