Violence in Haiti drives the highest needs in the region, while erratic rainfall and atypical prices influence food insecurity in Central America and Venezuela

• In Haiti, clashes among armed groups seeking to expand territorial control have resulted in additional displacements, as well as significant disruptions to market functionality and income sources. In this environment, poorer households in Cite Soleil are applying Emergency coping strategies and facing substantial food consumption gaps indicative of Emergency (IPC Phase 4). The majority of rest of the country will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) as the impacts of the violence spread, coupled with atypically high food prices and erratic rainfall negatively impacting household purchasing power and production capabilities of producing households.
• In Central America, the annual lean season is expected to start earlier than usual, exacerbated by four consecutive years of shocks with above-average prices negatively impacting household purchasing power and erratic rainfall and atypically high agricultural input prices reducing yields of key crops for subsistence farmers.  Very poor, rural households in Alta Verapaz and the Altiplano in Guatemala and in the Dry Corridor of Honduras and Guatemala will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) as their food stocks have long run out and they are expected to continue employing unsustainable coping strategies to mitigate food gaps through the rest of the lean season. In the rest of the region, poor households facing high prices of food, transportation, agricultural inputs, and a likely reduction in agricultural yields in the coming season – as erratic rainfall is expected to continue with the transition from El Niño to neutral conditions and then to La Niña – are expected to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes throughout the outlook period. 
• Venezuela’s highest area-level classification will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) throughout the outlook period. However, pockets of very poor households are expected to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Households in peri-urban areas of the Capital District, Guárico, Barinas, Apure, and Zulia who rely on incomes in the local currency (VED) and have limited or irregular access to social protection programs and/or remittances are the population of highest concern. In addition, small-scale farmers in Zulia, Falcón, Anzoátegui, Guárico, Apure, Amazonas, and Delta Amacuro have seen rainfall deficits reduce both income-generating opportunities and their likely harvest yields for the upcoming season. The food security outlook is expected to improve in June when a normalization of rainfall will improve labor opportunities and crop development in rural areas while the upcoming election season may increase social protection programs that would positively impact food access for poorer urban and peri-urban households

Guatemala

Key Messages

• As of February, poor rural households located in the Dry Corridor, Alta Verapaz, and Altiplano that suffered losses in staple grain harvests will see their diet deteriorate. Consecutive years of below-normal staple grain harvests have forced these households to buy maize and beans for a longer period of the year. Although the recently ended season of high demand for agricultural labor (from October to February) allowed households to generate income, the lack of staple grain reserves and repayment of debts did not allow them to build savings. These households will face high food prices that are still above the five-year average, ushering in the early onset of the lean season. To meet food needs, households will resort to unsustainable coping strategies such as selling agricultural assets and reducing food in the family diet, facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes until September.
• In the rest of the country, poor rural households that have reserves and income for the following months will experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes throughout the period covered by this outlook. This is because high prices of food, transportation, and agricultural inputs will restrict household purchasing power, and they will have to resort to coping strategies such as decreasing the quality of their diet, buying food on credit, and reducing investment into their crops. Meanwhile, small-scale coffee producers, after selling their products at prices in average ranges, will experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes starting in July. High investment in inputs and labor for the maintenance of coffee plantations will lead to borrowing, as well as other negative coping strategies such as atypical migration to cover basic food needs and to protect agricultural assets. 
• According to the long-term forecast, the persistence of El Niño conditions until March or April will likely cause reduced and erratic rainfall, in addition to high temperatures. These conditions will delay the start of the primera planting season and the only agricultural cycle in the Altiplano, leading to lower planting intentions, late planting, high production costs, and seed loss. This situation is expected to decrease yields for small-scale producers and possibly delay domestic harvests. As in 2023, this will likely mean persistently high prices for staple grains. 
• The national economy will continue to recover, but the purchasing power of households will remain limited. Although the pace of inflation has shown signs of slowing down in recent months, the cost of basic items such as food and fuel remains high. The cost of agricultural inputs above the five-year average will continue to hinder access and will raise production costs, affecting the prices of staple grains and other fresh products. 

For more information, including events that would change the most likely scenario, see the February 2024 Guatemala Food Security Outlook.

Haiti

Key Messages

• Acute food insecurity persists in Haiti due to insecurity, sociopolitical instability, and economic factors. Sporadic protests calling for the resignation of the prime minister, recurring clashes between rival gangs in the capital, and kidnapping cases form the backdrop of the current sociopolitical crisis. These armed groups seek to expand their territorial control by unlawfully establishing toll stations on major roads, thereby causing massive population displacements and disrupting market operations, affecting income-generating activities. Within the municipality of Cité Soleil, disadvantaged households face substantial food consumption gaps due to the impacts of armed gangs and are forced to resort to emergency coping strategies. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food insecurity persists in this municipality, while the rest of the country, for the most part, is in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
• While there are concerns about rainfall conditions, there has been an improvement compared to last year. However, several factors have weakened the impact of improved rainfall, negatively impacting the performance of the winter agricultural campaign, which is below average. Among these factors are the low availability of quality inputs, the escalation of gang violence, the lack of maintenance of irrigation channels, the rise in input prices, and the high cost of agricultural labor. The temporary closure of the border with the Dominican Republic in the past has also heightened these challenges, resulting in an increase in the cost of certain production factors, notably the cost of mechanized plowing, a service partly provided by Dominicans.
• Food assistance is not only insufficient in the face of growing needs but also raises significant concerns in terms of targeting and distribution. According to data from the Food Security Cluster, the cumulative number of beneficiaries of emergency food aid from January to November 2023 did not exceed 14 percent of the total population and 10 percent of the number of people in need. According to the Cluster partners' forecasts on the cumulative number of beneficiaries up until September 2024, 70 percent are expected to be in the Grand'Anse region. 
• Despite the appreciation of the national currency since April 2023, increased availability of fuel compared to the previous year, and a decrease in the annual inflation rate, prices of basic foodstuffs remain unusually high compared to the average. This is due to limited distribution across the country and the tolls imposed by gangs on roadways. As a result, purchasing power has deteriorated for poor households who struggle to meet their minimum caloric needs, given the significantly increased average cost of the basic food basket compared to the five-year average.

For more information, including events that would change the most likely scenario, see the February 2024 Haiti Food Security Outlook.

Remotely monitored countries

El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua

Key Messages

• The annual lean season for the period between February and May 2024 will begin in April, leading to a seasonal decrease in food availability and access for the region's poorest households. This year, the decrease is exacerbated by 2023 agricultural season losses in subsistence production due to El Niño-related impacts, the persistence of above-average prices, and four consecutive years of shocks that have eroded the resilience of poor households. In particular, poor agricultural households in the north and the Dry Corridor of Honduras, which suffered significant crop losses in 2023, will be classified as in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), while the remainder of the region will remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). 
• The lean period between June and September 2024 is expected to peak in August, as is typical, just before the start of the primera harvest, which typically begins in early September. The primera harvest is expected to be near average for the commercial crop production that supplies markets in the region, aided by the average accumulated precipitation prompted by the transition from El Niño to La Niña, which will bolster agricultural development. Despite the average accumulated precipitation, rainfall will remain erratic over time and the positive impacts will be limited due to the continued and atypically above-average temperatures. Meanwhile, subsistence farmers, who have limited resources to cope with shocks, will see a slight decrease in their yields but an increase in their reserves with the harvests. The typical seasonal decrease in prices between August and September and an increase in job opportunities with the primera harvest of staple grains will bolster access to food; most poor households in the three country-region are expected to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. 
• The variation in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns during this year, with the transition from El Niño to neutral conditions in April-May, and then to the onset of the La Niña phenomenon around August-September, implies volatility in rain forecasts. The deficit pattern observed in 2023 will likely change to an increase in accumulated precipitation in 2024; however, the erratic rainfall behavior and high temperatures will continue throughout the analysis period. Nevertheless, their impacts on domestic production are expected to be considerably lower than those reported in previous years, with some minor effects expected for subsistence production. 
• Inflation rates will remain relatively stable, as will fuel prices, in keeping with international trends. Prices of staple grains are projected to be above the five-year average, but lower compared to the atypical increases reported in 2023 driven by reduced input prices, as well as the influence of macroeconomic factors. Prices of other foods will remain high but will show some stability. As a result, access to food for poor households in the region will tend to improve slightly compared to previous years, but will fail to reach the purchasing power prior to 2020.

For more information, including events that would change the most likely scenario, see the February 2024 El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua Remote Monitoring Report.

Venezuela

Key Messages

• Lorem Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will persist as the highest classification at the area level in Venezuela until September. However, millions of households are experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes due to a number of factors. The El Niño phenomenon is affecting the weather, and, likewise, several economic factors related to agricultural production, while reduced labor supply and high food costs are limiting the purchasing power of the poorest households. This is reducing access to food and forcing families to resort to unsustainable coping strategies to meet their basic needs. 
• Small-scale farmers and indigenous people in El Niño-affected areas will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Rainfall deficits, especially in Zulia, Falcón, Anzoátegui, Guárico, Apure, Amazonas, and Delta Amacuro, will cause damage to the development of crops in agricultural production. This will likely reduce the amount of food available to subsistence farmers, forcing them to resort to coping strategies to meet their food needs. The situation is expected to improve from June, when the normalization of rainfall favors food production, availability, and access. A sizable segment of these households will transition from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) between June and September. 
• The poorest households in peri-urban areas of the Capital District, Guárico, Barinas, Apure, and Zulia are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) throughout the analysis period. The economic crisis has reduced employment, increased inflation, and decreased the purchasing power of the population. Household incomes are not enough to afford a basic diet, which is particularly affecting people who rely on income in the local currency (VED). In addition, these households neither have stable incomes, nor are regular beneficiaries of social protection programs. The economic situation is expected to worsen between May and September, which will increase the population in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The non-renewal of General License 44 (LG 44) will negatively impact the availability of imported food, especially cereals and medicines. While License 42 has helped stabilize the exchange rate and inflation since last October, its long-term sustainability is uncertain. In addition, the electoral context could generate an increase in social protection programs, although their impact will depend on the country's political and economic situation.

For more information, including events that would change the most likely scenario, see the February 2024 Venezuela Remote Monitoring Report.