Minimal food insecurity in 2013

• Acute food insecurity in El Salvador will likely maintain Minimal (IPC 2.0 Phase 1) through June, as households are meeting their food and non-food needs with average to good 2012 agricultural production, below-average staple food prices, and average income. The lean season will begin normally in May. 

• The coffee rust prevalence is two to three times higher than normal. This may impact the 2013/14 season coffee harvest and labor demand.  

Staple food prices decreased slightly from November to December in line with seasonal trends and are considered affordable and below-average. Retail white maize prices are 26 percent below last year and 12 percent below the five year average, while retail red bean prices are 30 percent below both last year and the five-year average. Markets are being supplied by national production and by flows from Honduras and Nicaragua, where prices are lower. It is interesting to note that imports in 2012 were almost 40 percent less than 2011 for red beans and almost 60 percent less for white maize due to good 2012 harvests in El Salvador. Prices are expected to follow normal, seasonal trends for the remainder of the consumption year, relatively stable until April 2013 and increasing seasonably thereafter until the next harvests.

The demand for labor for the coffee and sugarcane harvests is average, as is fishing labor demand.

Average to good production levels during the Postrera season along with accessible food prices and average income, are likely to maintain acute food insecurity levels in El Salvador in Phase 1: Minimal (IPC 2.0) throughout the projected outlook period, June. Initial rainfall forecast suggest a normal start of the rains for the Primera cycle in April. The lean season is expected to begin normally in May 2013.

Livelihood Zone 2: Coffee, Agro-industry, and unskilled labor

The prevalence of coffee rust has remained two to three times higher than usual since late November. About 50 percent of farms across the country show coffee rust, with the most affected departments being Ahuachapán, San Vicente, and La Paz. Labor demand for maintenance activities are likely to be slightly above average until May as a result of the damage. Initial estimates suggest below-average coffee yields in 2013/2014 due to coffee rust with potential impacts on harvest labor demand. Close monitoring is needed.

National production estimates for the current coffee harvest (2012/2013) are likely to be near the five year average and slightly above last year; nonetheless slight losses are expected in those areas with a higher prevalence of coffee rust. Unskilled labor demand has been normal since the start of the harvest season in October and is likely to remain normal until the end (February). Field reports indicate wage has been average and consistent with national minimum wage for coffee harvesters.