Coffee harvest and remittances provide temporary relief for households

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In October 2024, FEWS NET projected the highest area-level IPC Phase classification in El Salvador would be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through May 2025, with an estimated 100,000 – 499,999 people in need of food assistance. Seasonal improvements from October to February were supported by primera and postrera harvests and high agricultural labor demand. After February, declining stocks and reduced employment marked the lean season, prompting households to adopt coping strategies including purchasing cheaper foods and cutting non-essential expenses. Poor households in the Dry Corridor, affected by 2024 weather shocks, remained in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs indicates 407,500 people targeted for multisector humanitarian assistance in 2025, inclusive of those identified under food security needs. Urban poor households continued to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) conditions due to limited income from informal employment and elevated food prices through May 2025. 
The 2025 rainy season began late, with below-average precipitation in early May, delaying maize planting for nearly one month. High fertilizer and fuel costs and changes in government assistance, shifting from seed packages to a voucher system, further reduced planting incentives for smallholder farmers. By June, torrential rains in coastal areas caused localized flooding and crops losses, forcing farmers to replant maize. In late July, a heatwave averaging 33.5°C and a 20-day prolonged dry spell in several municipalities stressed crops and reduced yield potential. September brought the heaviest rainfall of 2025, while October brought tropical systems and flooding, with storms Erick and Ivo affecting La Unión, Usulután, and Sonsonate. Erratic rainfall and extreme weather conditions affected primera crop development, particularly for subsistence farmers in the Dry Corridor, increasing vulnerability and market dependence. 
Following an average primera harvest, households have been able to replenish food stocks and support market supply as of November 2025, improving seasonal food availability. U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts 2025 maize production near the five-year average, supported by conducive weather in key production areas during the primera season. However, subsistence farmers in the Dry Corridor experienced localized yield reductions due to delayed planting and crop moisture stress from deficit rainfall and persistently high temperatures. Precipitation has remained highly variable, alternating between heavy rains and dry spells. Diminished carryover stocks from last year and delayed start of the primera and postrera seasons will extend market dependence among poor households. While losses are less severe than last year, when Tropical Storm Sara disrupted postrera crops in eastern El Salvador, erratic rainfall disproportionally affects subsistence farmers lacking irrigation, while medium and large-scale farmers remain better equipped to manage these conditions.  
Staple grain prices decreased this month following the end of the primera season, particularly for white maize and red beans. Despite this seasonal decrease, staple grain prices remain significantly above historical norms due to regional production deficits and high input costs. Even with generally favorable production outcomes, below-average import volumes are contributing to persistently high white maize prices, which remain 30 percent higher than the five-year average, while red bean prices remain nearly 20 percent above the average, driven primarily by losses from the 2024 postrera harvest. High food prices continue to erode purchasing power, especially for poor urban households who rely heavily on market purchases. Annual inflation remains below 5 percent, driven by rising costs for housing, food, and utilities. While inflation has moderated, elevated staple grain prices, particularly white maize, continue to strain household purchasing power. 
Labor demand for coffee harvesting from November to February is expected to be normal this year, providing critical income opportunities for poor households during the high labor season. Remittances remain an important source of income, with over 25 percent of Salvadoran households receiving remittances in 2024, including 22 percent of poor households and 5 percent of very poor households. Remittances are projected to grow moderately by year-end, though at slower pace than in early 2025, when increases were driven by U.S. immigration policy changes and the announced 1 percent remittance tax. Together, these income sources will support food access for poor rural households through February 2026.  
An average start of the primera season is expected, with average rainfall through March 2026, though above-average temperatures may increase risks of crop diseases and water stress for smallholder farmers. From April 2026, food security conditions are expected to deteriorate as households’ food stocks are depleted, and labor opportunities decline during the lean season. Many poor households will likely resort to negative coping strategies, such as spending savings, purchasing food on credit, consuming less preferred foods, and reducing meal frequency or portion sizes. Most poor households are expected to meet their minimal caloric needs but with declining dietary diversity and difficulty covering essential non-food expenses or investing in agricultural inputs. However, some poor households, particularly subsistence farmers in the Dry Corridor, are likely to experience food consumption gaps, leading to increased humanitarian food assistance needs.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. El Salvador Key Message Update November 2025: Coffee harvest and remittances provide temporary relief for households, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.