Irregular start to primera season with atypical temperatures and rainfall

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From May to September 2026, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to be widespread across El Salvador as household food stocks decline and market reliance increases amid above-average staple grain prices and below-average primera agricultural labor opportunities. An increasing proportion of poor households — particularly in the Western and Eastern Dry Corridor — are likely to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Smallholder farmers in these areas have already exhausted food stocks, face reduced income, and have limited coping capacity due to increasingly erratic rainfall and recurrent below-average harvests. As a result, purchasing power will remain constrained, and land-poor and labor-dependent households are likely to increase their reliance on both sustainable and unsustainable coping strategies to meet basic food needs.
In May, staple food availability remains adequate; however, persistently above-average maize prices continue to constrain food access for poor households dependent on market purchases. In April, wholesale prices for beans and rice remained broadly stable and close to the five-year average in most markets. Wholesale white maize prices, while stable month-on-month, remained above both last year’s levels and the five-year average. In the Gerardo Barrios reference market in San Salvador, white maize prices were 21 percent higher than the previous year and 17 percent above the five-year average. El Salvador’s high dependence on white maize imports and below-average import volumes throughout much of 2025, combined with elevated production and transportation costs, is likely to sustain upward pressure on maize prices, limiting purchasing power and exacerbating the lean season.
At the onset of the rainy season, cumulative rainfall has been below average across much of eastern El Salvador, compounded by above-average temperatures in recent weeks. While the primera planting window runs between mid-May and June, government recommendations have promoted earlier planting (late April to early May), if adequate soil moisture conditions are verified before sowing. Forecasts indicate below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures will persist, alongside a prolonged and intensified canícula during July and August, which early planting could help mitigate. These conditions are likely to reduce soil moisture, disrupt crop development (particularly rainfed maize), increase the likelihood of pests and diseases, and limit primera yields for non-irrigated smallholder farmers, especially in the Dry Corridor. Although agricultural labor demand typically rises in May with the start of the primera season, high input costs and anticipated planting delays are expected to reduce staple-crop labor demand and maintain below-average income.
Volatile global fuel prices are likely to gradually increase transportation and agricultural production costs, contributing to additional upward pressure on food prices. In April, gasoline and diesel prices increased by approximately 12-16 percent compared to March and are expected to remain elevated due to global supply disruptions and El Salvador’s dependence on fuel imports. Fertilizer is expected to remain generally available through commercial suppliers and the government‑subsidized fertilizer sales and distribution centers; however, higher fuel and fertilizer prices, along with price transmission effects and market speculation, are likely to increase agricultural input costs and limit fertilizer application rates. This will likely further erode household purchasing power, particularly for smallholder farmers purchasing inputs for the start of the postrera planting season.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. El Salvador Key Message Update May - September 2026: Irregular start to primera season with atypical temperatures and rainfall, 2026.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.