Food security improves due to higher agricultural yields than in 2023

• Most of the poorest households in rural areas in the three countries of the region will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) throughout the analysis period. There will be a seasonal improvement in food security from October 2024 to February 2025 with the staple grain harvests of the postrera and apante cycles and increased labor demand during cash crop harvests. These conditions will gradually deteriorate as of March, when the annual lean season begins. The population in need (PIN) accounts for between 500,000 and 749,999 people in Honduras, and between 100,000 and 249,999 people in El Salvador and Nicaragua, especially as of March 2025, when employment options decline seasonally and household food stocks start to decline. 
• Households whose subsistence crops were affected by pest infestations/diseases and by excess rainfall will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes throughout the analysis period. The steep decline in subsistence production means that these households were unable to replenish their food reserves, forcing them to rely extensively on food purchases, which continues to put pressure on household financial resources.
• The poorest households in urban areas of the region will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes from October 2024 to May 2025 due to the persistence of high food prices which limit access to food for households with irregular and low incomes. However, a slight improvement is expected at the end of November and December 2024, and in April 2025, due to a seasonal increase in commercial and tourist activities, which improves the income of households whose livelihoods depend on these sectors. 

Due to migration to cities in search of employment, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua report a greater proportion of their population in urban areas (greater than 60 percent). The poorest households are completely dependent on the purchase of food and casual employment in trade, construction, services, and domestic employment as the main source of income. Despite the high proportion of the urban population, this accounts for only about 20 percent of the PIN in the region, since the highest rates of poverty and vulnerability are found in rural areas. 

The diet in the region is based on staple grains, such as white maize and red beans. Cash crop production supplies national and regional markets, complemented by imports. Large producers have access to better-quality land, irrigation, and other resources to achieve high yields. However, subsistence production feeds poor agricultural households in the region, characterized by being rainfed, with little investment in inputs. There are two main production cycles: primera, which begins with the rainy season and is the highest production of maize in the year, and postrera, which produces mainly beans. In addition, there is the late apante/postrera cycle in areas of northern Honduras and the central strip of Nicaragua that supplies beans to complete the regional supply. During the off-harvest period, poor rural households depend on their stocks which gradually deplete, forming the annual lean season. 

The livelihoods of poor rural households depend on a combination of subsistence agriculture and income from casual agricultural work in export cash crops, such as coffee, African palm, and sugarcane. The harvests of these products define migratory patterns towards the producing areas within each country and between countries, including Costa Rica, and represent the period in the year with the best options for the generation of income for day laborers. The income generated is used in the subsequent months for the purchase of food and agricultural inputs for staple grain crop production. 

Food security in the region has been affected by consecutive events, such as coffee rust infestation in 2012, the COVID-19 pandemic and its impacts on trade, periods of abnormal dryness and high rainfall, as well as the impact of tropical events, such as Hurricanes Eta and Iota, in late 2020. The balance of these events includes a gap in the regional supply of staple grains (especially red beans), offset by imports, an alteration in seasonal patterns of food prices in the last year, higher levels of borrowing, and a deterioration in the responsiveness of the poorest households to these shocks. There have also been changes in livelihoods that include diversification in income sources and a higher rate of migration to urban areas and other countries, such as the U.S., increasing the flow of remittances that support the payment of basic needs of recipient households, and increased demand for construction and retail employment.

See the annex at the end of this report for the seasonal calendars of El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua.

Learn more

Follow these links for additional information: 

• El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua Remote Monitoring Report: September 2024
• El Salvador Price Bulletin | FEWS NET 
• Honduras Price Bulletin | FEWS NET 
• Overview of FEWS NET's Scenario Development Methodology
• FEWS NET's approach to estimating population in need
• Overview of IPC and IPC compatible analysis

National

• In September, white maize prices were stable compared to the previous month due to the increase in market supply from the start of the primera harvest, which was delayed one month. Due to better yields than in 2023, prices fell between 5 and 40 percent compared to the previous year, although they remained similar to the five-year average. 
• Although the primera cycle is not the main agricultural season for regional red bean production, the near-average output of harvest in September allowed the flow of beans to the markets, resulting in a 16 percent drop in the price in Honduras, while prices in El Salvador and Nicaragua were stable due to higher production costs and a staggered harvest that caused a slower, consistent flow to the markets. However, in all three countries, a decrease ranging between 5 and 15 percent was evident compared to the previous year. The multi-year cumulative deficit in regional production and high production prices have kept retail bean prices up to 42 percent above the five-year average. 
• Headline inflation in September showed slight decreases compared to August. However, in Honduras there was an increase of 4.5 percent compared to the same month in 2023, while in Nicaragua, the increase was close to 4 percent. Although the upward trend remains, figures have significantly decreased compared to the variations reported in 2023, due to a lower growth in the food sector and, in the case of El Salvador and Honduras, transportation. Nonetheless, food inflation continues to influence global inflation figures. 
• The price of diesel remains stable compared to the previous month but has significantly decreased in Honduras and El Salvador compared to the previous year due to the reduction in international oil prices. These variations reversed the major increases reported in the last five years, with a decrease of 6 percent compared to the average reported in Honduras. In Nicaragua, the government has been applying fixed fuel prices since mid-2022. 
• The irregular rainfall pattern in the region persists. Accumulated figures for the last month show a continued deficit in El Salvador and eastern Honduras, but excess rainfall in central Honduras and the Pacific region of Nicaragua. On the other hand, the major temperature anomalies have ebbed from the maximums reported in the middle of this year, although they remain slightly higher. These conditions allowed typical timing of the primera harvest, but slightly delayed the start of postrera planting.

Dry Corridor

• For rural households that depend on subsistence production in the Dry Corridor in all three countries, the presence of pest infestations and diseases in primera staple grain crops and damage from irregular rainfall have further reduced yields, which were already low. This will imply lower food stocks and higher production costs, which limit the household economic resources allocated to try to meet basic needs. These households have poor coping capacity due to the deterioration of their livelihoods resulting from the compounding shocks of previous years. 

Humanitarian food assistance

There is no information on humanitarian food assistance in the three countries to suggest sufficient quantities are available to cover at least 20 percent of the calorie needs of acutely food-insecure households in the region. Coverage does not reach 20 percent of the population in need which might positively impact food outcomes. 

National assumptions

• Forecasts indicate that current neutral conditions will give way to the development of a weak La Niña event between September and November, which could last until the first quarter of 2025. This condition will favor above-average accumulated rainfall for the region.
• Subsistence production of postrera staple grains is expected to be slightly below average; the main crop is beans which are susceptible to fungal and pest damage in high humidity conditions. The harvest is expected to be one month late, due to the delay during the primera cycle.
• The harvests of cash crops, such as coffee and sugarcane, are expected to be slightly lower than average. However, with the decline in the supply of day laborers in the region, households that depend on this source of labor will not see a significant impact on the supply of labor due to the decline in yields. The price of the daily wage will remain high, but at values similar to those reported in the previous year, so the net income of day laborers will remain close to that of one year ago.
• The tourism and retail industry will have a seasonal increase at the end of the year and in April over year-end holidays and Easter and households whose livelihoods depend on these activities will increase their incomes. Levels of tourism in Honduras and Nicaragua will remain within those reported in the last two years, while those in El Salvador will be significantly above the previous year and above pre-pandemic values.
• White maize prices will remain below or near average in El Salvador and Nicaragua due to a better production compared to the previous year and imports that will complement food stocks. In Honduras they are expected to remain slightly above average due to higher production costs.
• Red bean prices will continue to be above the five-year average in Nicaragua and Honduras due to an existing gap in production in recent years. In El Salvador, projections suggest that prices will follow the current below average trend supported by imports (Figure 1). 

Humanitarian food assistance

National assumption

• There is no information on planned humanitarian food assistance in the three countries that suggests coverage of at least 20 percent of the calorie needs of acutely food-insecure households in each country. Coverage also does not reach 20 percent of the population in need. 

Most rural households will remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) throughout the projection period. Most poor households in the rural areas of the region will experience an improvement in their food security conditions as of October, with an increase in their household food stocks due to the recent primera harvest and the subsequent postrera harvest in December, despite the expected slight decrease in bean yields. The flow of staple grains to markets will result in a seasonal drop in prices, although other foodstuffs are expected to continue at high prices. In addition to improved food availability, the increase in options for income generation following the start of the season of high labor demand for subsistence and cash crop farming will improve access to food. This improvement, combined with the increase in food availability and incomes, will continue until approximately February, when food stocks in these households will begin to deplete and employment options decline seasonally, leading to the annual lean season. Thereafter, the poorest households will resort to coping strategies, such as replacing certain foods with cheaper options, in an effort to bridge the food gap, increasing the number of households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). 

The poorest households located in rural areas of the region's Dry Corridor, where production has been continuously affected by climate events, make up portions of the population experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes throughout the analysis period, but do not account for more than 20 percent of the population of each country to justify a change in the area-level classification. These households have fragile livelihoods and are highly dependent on the sale of their labor and the subsistence production of staple grains. Since 2018, various climate events have caused agricultural losses to various extents, which together with the economic shocks that these households have been facing since 2020, have chipped away at their livelihoods and decreased their coping capacity. In 2024, rainfall irregularities and high temperatures caused localized losses which are driving greater dependence on food purchases. Over the next eight months, these households will sporadically obtain sources of employment that could allow them to improve their access to food, but given the casual and unreliable nature of these jobs, their food access will be variable. 

In urban areas, the poorest households depend almost exclusively on food purchases. Although inflation has stabilized, and the output of staple grain harvests allows for a seasonal decrease in food prices, food prices are generally expected to remain above average due to the impacts of the major increases of previous years. Income generation for these households will remain precarious because most jobs are in the informal sector, potentially limiting household purchasing power. Despite an improvement observed during the pandemic, the economic conditions of the region have not managed to reverse the high rates of casual employment, which remain higher than prior to 2020. However, there will be a slight improvement in household incomes in November and December, since the end-of-year holidays boost in retail activities. However, in general, most urban poor households will experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes throughout the projection period with the implementation of coping strategies, such as reducing the quality of diet or non-essential expenditures and increasing debt.

National 

The impact of a tropical weather event on the region

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Given that an extension of the hurricane season is expected (through early December), the impact of a tropical weather event could result in heavy rains with flooding, river overflows, and landslides. Depending on the trajectory and magnitude, this would cause agricultural damage, crop losses, and damage to infrastructure (and thereby less access to basic services), which has the potential to increase the food insecurity levels of the affected households and even the affected area. If the event is sufficiently extensive it could increase the population in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and/or Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

Increase in the inflation rate

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Although inflation in all three countries in the region is initially projected to remain below 5 percent, there are factors such as political-geographical pressures which could influence the price of fuels, imported food, and freight. If this were to materialize, households' purchasing power would be under pressure, limiting their access to food and increasing levels of food insecurity, particularly for the poorest urban households that depend entirely on purchases to meet food needs, and rural households whose livelihoods depend entirely on the sale of their labor and have no subsistence production. This event will likely cause an increase in the population facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and/or Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.