Improvement in food security as of September, despite the La Niña transition

• The areas of greatest concern, located in the Dry Corridor, and households in northern Honduras, will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes from June to August 2024 due to agricultural losses in 2023 and above-average food prices. The population in need (between 500,000 to 749,999 people) will peak in August. Subsequently, an improvement towards Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes is expected due to better results in the primera and postrera harvests, which will increase the availability of food reserves in these households, coupled with a seasonal increase in revenue from October onwards.However, some pockets of households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will persist, due to agricultural losses related to excessive rainfall.
• Rural households located in the Dry Corridor of El Salvador and Nicaragua will form pockets of population in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). These households experienced agricultural losses of more than 50 percent last year, significantly reducing their reserves that have been totally consumed to date, forcing them to resort to purchases atypically early. These households represent a population in need of between 100,000 and 249,999 people in each of these countries as of August but will subsequently decrease gradually as improvements in agricultural outcomes allow a shift to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes until January 2025.
• The majority of very poor households in rural areas in the rest of the countries will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) throughout the analysis period. Although they will experience seasonal deterioration until August, an improvement is expected with the start of the primera harvest.

Learn more

Follow these links for additional information: 

• Delayed rainfall will prolong the the annual lean season | FEWS NET
• El Salvador Price Bulletin | FEWS NET
• Overview of FEWS NET's Scenario Development Methodology
• FEWS NET's approach to estimating population in need
• Overview of IPC and IPC-compatible analysis
• FEWS NET's approach to analyzing humanitarian food assistance

Due to migration to cities in search of employment, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua report a greater proportion of their population in the urban area (greater than 60 percent). The poorest are dependent on the purchase of food and informal work in trade, construction, services, and domestic employment as the main source of income. Despite the high proportion of the urban population, this represents only about 20 percent of the population in need in the region since the highest rates of poverty and vulnerability are found in rural areas. 

The diet in the region is based on staple grains, such as white maize and red beans. Commercial production supplies national and regional markets, complemented by imports. Large producers have access to better-quality land, irrigation, and other resources to achieve high yields. However, subsistence rainfed production feeds poor agricultural households in the region, characterized by little investment in inputs. There are two production cycles: the first begins with the rainy season and produces mostly maize, and the postrera when beans are produced. In addition, there is the late apante/postrera cycle in areas of northern Honduras and the central strip of Nicaragua that supplies beans to complete the regional supply. During the lean season, poor rural households depend on their reserves. 

The livelihoods of poor rural households depend on a combination of subsistence agriculture and income from informal agricultural work in export cash crops, such as coffee, African palm, and sugarcane. The harvests of these products define migratory patterns towards the producing areas within each country and between countries, including Costa Rica, and represent the period of greatest opportunities for day laborers to generate income. The income generated is used for their food in the coming months and the purchase of agricultural inputs for their staple grain crops. 

Food security in the region has been affected by consecutive shocks, such as coffee rust infestation in 2012, the COVID-19 pandemic and its trade effects, periods of prolonged abnormal dryness and high rainfall, as well as the impact of tropical events, such as Hurricanes Eta and Iota in late 2020. The balance of these events includes a gap in the regional supply of staple grains, especially red beans, offset by imports, an alteration in seasonal patterns of food prices in the last year, higher levels of debt, and a deterioration in the responsiveness of the poorest households. There have also been changes in livelihoods that include diversification in income sources and a higher rate of migration to urban areas and other countries, such as the United States, increasing the flow of remittances that support the payment of basic needs of recipient households, and increased demand for construction and trade employment.

See the annex at the end of this report to consult the seasonal calendars of El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua.

National

• In May, contrary to the regional trend of atypical stability in the price of white maize due to a constant supply to the market by imports, white maize prices in Nicaragua increased by 6 percent due to a lower production during the 2023/24 cycle. Prices decreased in El Salvador and Honduras between 19.2 and 24.3 percent compared to 2023, while they remained stable in Nicaragua, standing at 34 percent above the five-year average.
• The inter-monthly behavior of the price of red beans is similar to that of maize, with Nicaragua reporting a 6 percent increase in May, and El Salvador and Honduras showing stability due to imports and good commercial production in the case of Honduras. However, prices of this product throughout the region remain between 38 and 63 percent above the five-year average, because of the regional gap in production due to losses of this crop during the last five years. 
• In all three countries, there is a trend towards stability in fuel prices. However, the price of diesel remains 22 percent higher than the five-year average in El Salvador and 28 percent in Nicaragua, where fuel prices have remained stable since mid-2022.
• In June, inflation showed a slight upward trend compared to May 2023, especially in Nicaragua, where the increase has been 5.5 percent. This is due to the persistence of high food and fuel prices, which have a significant impact on the service and transport sectors. Despite the moderation in the variations in the region, prices in general continue above the levels reported before the pandemic. 
• After the dry and warm conditions present during 2023 and half of this year, the rainy season began in June with cumultive high levels in areas near the Gulf of Fonseca and southern El Salvador. This has improved soil moisture, which enables the proper growth of crops. However, as of June 20, most of Honduras and eastern Nicaragua continued to report deficits of up to 45 percent in accumulated rainfall. 

Dry Corridor of the region and Northern Honduras 

• The Dry Corridor in all three countries and northern Honduras reported the largest rainfall deficits and the highest temperatures due to the El Niño phenomenon. Rural poor households in these regions are of greatest concern as they suffered the greatest impact on their agricultural production, resulting in more than a 50 percent reduction in their food reserves compared to normal, and an advance in the lean season between a month and a month and a half, when they had to resort to buying food. Since these areas are often prone to shocks such as recurrent prolonged abnormal dryness and flooding, these households have a lower resilience than those in the rest of the region, therefore high food prices have a greater impact on their access to food.

Humanitarian food assistance

• There is no information on humanitarian food assistance in all three countries in sufficient quantities to cover at least 20 percent of the caloric needs of acutely food-insecure households in the region. Coverage also does not reach 20 percent of the population in need to change the area-level food security classification. 

National assumptions

• The La Niña phenomenon is expected to develop between August and October, following the neutral conditions prevailing during May and June. This phenomenon will continue throughout the analysis period, with forecasts indicating above-average rainfall accumulations (Figure 1) throughout the rainy season. However, the erratic pattern of rainfall and high temperatures is expected to persist, which will increase the risk of pests and diseases, especially in bean crops. This could lead to losses focused on subsistence production of staple grains on riverbanks and flood-prone areas.

• This year's hurricane season is forecast with above-average activity, driven by both the development of the La Niña phenomenon and atypical warming in the Atlantic.
• Commercial production of staple grains is expected to remain within average ranges due to access to irrigation and other resources that help mitigate the impacts of high rainfall, such as the application of fungicides. Producers will not reduce production areas because prices remain high, and there is optimism regarding the weather forecast.
• The transition of Enso conditions from El Niño to neutral caused the irregular start of the rainy season, with a delay of approximately one month, delaying the establishment of the primera cycle until the beginning of June throughout the region; this means that the harvest will not take place until September. This delay, together with the high humidity conditions at that time, will postpone the planting of postrera for a month, resulting in a subsistence production of beans that is slightly below average, while national production in the three countries will be close to average levels. Since late apante/postrera production is limited to some areas and occurs during a period with lower rainfall, the cycle is expected to start on time and with average yields. 
• Seasonally, the visit of domestic and foreign tourists is expected to increase during December, increasing the income of households whose livelihoods depend on this activity (services, food, transport), located mainly in urban areas, and due to the end-of-year festivities. However, these incomes are not expected to exceed the average, as in Honduras and Nicaragua the sector has not fully recovered from the effects of the pandemic and incomes have a limited impact on poor households. In El Salvador, the levels of the previous year will be maintained due to the weather forecast that is not favorable for tourist activities.
• Economic growth in the region and in each of the countries, individually, will be limited in 2024 as the main trading partners, such as the United States, will also experience a slowdown in their economies. These conditions will not allow significant changes in unemployment and informal employment rates, which mainly affect the poorest households employed in sectors such as manufacturing and construction, with a greater presence in urban areas.
• According to the seasonality, the demand for rural agricultural labor will decrease from June to October, despite the primera staple grain harvest in September, as the harvests of cash crops such as coffee and sugarcane do not begin until October. Due to the dry conditions of the first half of 2024, the low levels of coffee production observed the previous year in El Salvador, Honduras, and Costa Rica will be reduced, while in Nicaragua an increase of eight percent is expected, according to the forecasts of the United States Department of Agriculture. The lack of day laborers due to migration and the transition of employment to other sectors will put pressure on day labor prices. However, high production costs and producers' indebtedness will limit further increases, resulting in similar revenues to the previous year for day laborers due to the decrease in harvest volumes.
• Remittances will increase modestly in El Salvador and Honduras, while in Nicaragua the upward trend of 2023, derived from greater migration, will remain. Although the poorest households do not receive remittances, they energize sectors such as trade and construction, which are usually sources of employment that benefit these households. 
• Given the agricultural losses during 2023, the increase in demand by producer households, and the distortion in seasonal price trends due to previous shocks, red bean prices are expected to remain above the five-year average and close to 2023 levels. Imports will compensate for the gap in regional supply, and apante production will be below average in Nicaragua.
• White maize prices will remain above average in El Salvador and Nicaragua, although below those reported in 2023. In Honduras, they will remain close to the average due to favorable commercial production in the same year. Imports will complete the supply of markets, favoring more moderate prices.
• Headline inflation rates will remain below 5 percent, while food inflation will remain below 10 percent due to high transportation, energy, and food prices due to lingering impacts of the El Niño phenomenon. Nicaragua in particular will report the highest rates in the region, as price control policies for fuels are expected to continue throughout the analysis period. 

Humanitarian food assistance

National assumption

• There is no information on planned humanitarian food assistance in all three countries in sufficient quantities to cover at least 20 percent of the caloric needs of acutely food-insecure households in the region. Their coverage also does not reach 20 percent of the population in need to change the area-level food security classification. 

Households located in the rural areas of northern Honduras and in the Dry Corridor make up the population of greatest concern in the region, due to the losses in their agricultural production during 2023, resulting in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes until August. Losses of more than 50 percent compared to average annual production due to the recently ended El Niño phenomenon have caused households to purchase food in advance. This means that they had to draw on the income generated during the high labor demand season of 2023/24 approximately one month earlier than normal, and at a time when food prices are rising seasonally. For this reason, they will look for informal and sporadic sources to obtain additional income, while progressively resorting to negative strategies, such as taking on debt and food-based coping strategies, as the lean season reaches its peak. This year, the primera harvest is expected to be delayed by up to a month, so households must extend their limited resources until September. However, the harvest will improve food availability. In addition, as of October, the seasonal increase in labor demand will provide households with higher incomes that will allow access to food and other basic needs, changing outcomes to Stressed (Phase 2 IPC) until January 2025.

The rest of the poor households in the rural areas will see a deterioration in their food conditions until August due to seasonal factors, which are exacerbated by persisting high food prices and the extension of the lean season for a month. With the start of the primera harvest in September and the subsequent postrera harvest, food reserves in producer households will increase, despite the expected decrease in bean yields. At the same time, the seasonal drop in prices and the increase in income-generating options from October will allow for an improvement in food access and availability. The majority of rural households will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) throughout the projection period. However, those located on riverbanks and in areas prone to flooding could suffer significant losses due to accumulated above-average rainfall due to the La Niña phenomenon and see a decrease in their reserves which will be consumed as early as February.

Despite a regularization of inflation, food prices will persist above average, while the rate of informality in employment will remain at high levels; poor urban households, which are highly dependent on sources of work without a stable salary, will continue to have difficulty accessing food on a consistent basis. As a way to compensate for shortfalls in purchasing power, these households will resort to coping strategies, such as reducing the quality of diet or non-essential expenses and increasing debt. Most urban poor households will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes throughout the projection period, with a slight improvement during the months of November and December, when trade is dynamic.

National

The impact of a tropical event on the region. 

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: The impact of the arrival of a tropical depression or hurricane - depending on trajectory and magnitude - could result in heavy rains with flooding, river overflows, and landslides. This would also cause agricultural damage, crop losses, and damage to infrastructure, which will mean less access to and from basic services, which has the potential to increase the levels of food insecurity of affected households and even the affected area, if the event is sufficiently extensive, increasing the population in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and/or Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

Increase in the rate of inflation.

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Although inflation in countries in the region is initially projected to remain below 5 percent, there are factors such as geopolitical pressures which have been influencing the increase in freight prices which could alter the current trend. If this were to materialize, households' purchasing power would be under pressure, limiting their access to food, increasing levels of food insecurity, particularly for the poorest urban households that depend entirely on food purchases, and rural households whose livelihoods depend entirely on the sale of their labor and have no own-production. This event would cause an increase in the Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and/or Crisis (IPC Phase 3) population.