Poor families in the region will subsist until September on income from coffee and local employment, but with limitations

• Favorable rainfall distribution means Apante and Postrera Tardía basic grain production is progressing normally in the production areas of Honduras and Nicaragua. Harvests are estimated to reach markets in March, helping to stabilize or reduce prices (mostly beans).

• In November 2019, international coffee prices had recovered to the lower levels of 2016 and 2017, creating positive expectations for the current harvest. However, the average fell in January (106.89 US cents).

• Losses of Primera maize harvests in areas of subsistence and commercial farming, mainly in Honduras and Nicaragua, will affect supplies, resulting in price increases, which are already being felt. This increase will be passed on to consumers, reducing their purchasing power.

• Losses of Primera grain harvests for 2019 and temporary employment opportunities (November–February) mean the countries undergoing remote monitoring have Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity until September. Less-developed communities that have suffered repeated droughts and experienced a sustained fall in livelihoods, will have a food insecurity classification of Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

• The poorest households that did not harvest grains or that do not have access to local employment opportunities earn money selling firewood, extracting sand or stone for construction and migrating to cities to work in informal commerce, construction and security.

The Apante harvest is expected in the second half of March. Crop growth has been normal, although above-average rainfall during the harvest could cause fungal damage. Rains are forecast to arrive early in April, which will allow regular Primera planting throughout the region.

According to rainfall forecasts (Figure 1) for March–May, the entire Pacific region of Central America, which includes the Dry Corridor, shows positive rainfall anomalies for this period. This means normal growth during the first rainfall period, favoring normal Primera crops in these production areas.

At the end of January, Primera and Postrera basic grain harvests took place in the different producing regions, mainly in the east, south and west of Honduras, the east, north and west of El Salvador, and north-central Nicaragua. Irregular rainfalls that affected Primera maize harvests have meant irregular grain supplies from production zones to markets, primarily in Honduras and Nicaragua.

Since November 2019, maize prices have risen as a result of losses of Primera harvests in areas of subsistence and commercial production in these countries. Price projections estimate that corn prices in Honduras and Nicaragua will remain above the five-year average in the first half of 2020, while red beans will remain below the five-year average (Figure 2).

According to a report by the International Coffee Organization (ICO) in January 2020, the composite indicator price lost its December gains to average 106.89 cents/pound. This has affected the recent positive expectations of the regional coffee industry and could once again discourage production in the region, mainly among coffee growers with low levels of financial capacity and technological development.

Due to the depletion of food reserves, vulnerable families in the region will meet their needs until September 2020 using income from cutting coffee, sugarcane and other work available to family members over the last four months. From March onwards, they will depend on scarce local employment and contributions from family members who migrate to cities. They will struggle to meet other basic family needs and will have Stressed food insecurity (IPC Phase 2). Households in the most isolated communities and with limited basic services will find it harder to acquire food and will use negative coping strategies, meaning food insecurity will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).