Primera harvest supports food security in the region

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After a month’s delay, the annual lean season is concluding in September with the arrival of the primera harvest, which will allow households and markets to replenish their food stocks, resulting in a seasonal decrease in prices. This improvement in food availability will be supported in October by increased income-generating opportunities as the cash crop harvest season begins, including the harvesting of coffee and sugar cane. This will improve food security for most of the poorest households in the region, which are expected to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes until January 2025. The postrera harvest in December will provide additional support for food security in the region.
In August, rainfall resumed after the dry period, with higher cumulative totals in the Pacific region, while temperatures have decreased from the anomalies observed in the first half of the year. However, the irregular precipitation pattern and warm conditions persist, creating an environment favorable for the development of agricultural pests and diseases. This has reduced bean production, particularly in eastern Honduras, and increased production costs across the region, particularly impacting small producers. From September to November, a transition from neutral conditions to a weak La Niña phenomenon is expected, with a forecast of erratic above-average rainfall until January 2025, in addition to abnormally high temperatures. Despite this, postrera production is expected to be near average, except for subsistence produce beans. Staple grain production is anticipated to be higher compared to the 2023/2024 cycle.
General inflation in Honduras and Nicaragua slightly increased to nearly 5 percent compared to August 2023, while in El Salvador it remained stable. Food inflation had the most significant influence on these figures; in Nicaragua, the year-on-year increase was 7 percent, while in Honduras it was 6 percent, and in El Salvador it reached 3 percent. The factors driving these increases include the fixed price of fuel in Nicaragua and rising prices for food, including fruits, vegetables, and animal products, across the region. In the case of staple grains, a widespread decrease in maize prices was reported in August, while beans showed a trend toward stabilization due to reserves and imports supporting market supply. A decrease in the prices of these products is expected with the availability of the primera and postrera harvests; however, the seasonal declines will be moderated by late and staggered harvests. Until January, inflation is expected to remain similar to current levels, considering that other foods apart from staple grains may continue to influence seasonal price increases.
Cash crop harvests are expected to be close to or slightly below average, and seasonal employment for rural day laborers will increase starting in October. Wage rates are expected to be close to or slightly above the values reported the previous year; however, this will not translate into a significant improvement in the purchasing power of laborers since food prices remain high, with increases that will not be offset by the anticipated changes in their income. Urban households will see an increase in their income starting in November when commercial and tourism activities seasonally increase. Remittances will continue to slightly increase compared to the previous year.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua Key Message Update September 2024: Primera harvest supports food security in the region, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.