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- Through January, all three countries will be classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) due to seasonal improvements in food availability and access from the postrera harvest in December and increased incomes from higher labor demand in the agricultural, trade and tourism sectors. However, improvements will be less than normal because of diminished yields for rural households' due to erratic El Niño-related rainfall, resulting in a premature termination of household staple food reserves. In addition, high prices of food and other basic services limits the purchasing power of poor urban and rural households. Consequently, households must implement negative coping strategies, such as adjusting the quality of the diet to meet food needs. However, areas in the Dry Corridor and northern Honduras will be classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) as the poorest agricultural households suffered total damage to their basic grains production during 2023, due to climatic affectations, in addition to consecutive years of shocks. Due to a lack of food reserves and a progressive deterioration of livelihoods and coping capacity, these households will resort to negative coping strategies such as indebtedness, the sale of household goods, and changes in the amount of food consumed to meet food needs.
- From February to May, Honduras will be classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) as the number of poor rural households experiencing deteriorating food conditions in the northern departments and in the Dry Corridor will increase. Households that experienced significant agricultural losses will face further pressure on their purchasing power, reducing their access to food, as they deplete their food reserves earlier in the year making them dependent on purchasing food at market during a period of high prices and reduced employment options. Meanwhile, El Salvador and Nicaragua will remain classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as the magnitude of damage from weather events was lower. In Nicaragua, the temporary increase in rainfall between October and November improved agricultural conditions, reversing the prospect of lower yields for the postrera cycle, ensuring lower prices for basic grains and the existence of food reserves during the analysis period. However, despite the seasonal decline in basic grain prices, the improvement in food access will be limited by persistently high prices compared to five-year averages.
- Higher rainfall accumulations in the region due to the passage of tropical storm Pilar in late October and seasonal cold fronts produced mixed results. In Nicaragua, agricultural areas experienced a reduction in the soil moisture deficit recorded since the beginning of the rainy season, improving soil conditions and yield prospects for the postrera (September-December) and apante (December-February) seasons. However, in Honduras, the rains resulted in flooding, overflowing rivers and landslides, damaging crops and road and housing infrastructure, especially in the departments of the Atlantic coast, Santa Bárbara and Olancho. El Salvador reported agricultural damage in specific areas, especially to small farmers' bean crops due to the development of fungal diseases caused by high humidity. However, this was to a lesser extent than experienced in Honduras. In conclusion, Nicaraguan bean production will be close to average for the next two agricultural cycles - maintaining stability in regional supply - while the other two countries will see a decrease in postrera production, especially for subsistence farmers.
- Despite a decrease in headline inflation in October, compared to September, in all three countries, it continues to be above average. However, prices remain well above those reported pre-pandemic. On the other hand, food inflation in El Salvador and Nicaragua showed an upward trend, breaking with the downward trajectory reported up to that point in the year. Atypical increases in the prices of basic grains and vegetables originated from difficulties in regional transportation due to road blockades caused by the political crisis in Guatemala, high production costs (particularly fertilizers and labor), lower expected production due to poor rainfall, and market speculation. Above-average prices are expected to persist, which will continue to make access to food more difficult for poor households.
- Coffee production in the region, an important cash crop and seasonal source of income, will decrease due to yield sensitivity to irregular rainfall. This, coupled with a decrease in the international selling price and an increase in production costs, will mean lower income for producers, especially small producers, limiting their access to food and investment in their livelihoods. Day laborers will not see an improvement in overall income over the previous year, despite the higher pay per day, due to a decrease in the total volume harvested. This will translate into lower household purchasing power for the beginning of the annual lean season.
Recommended citation: FEWS NET. El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua Key Message Update November 2023: Excessive rainfall causes damage in Honduras, while supporting agriculture in Nicaragua, 2023.
This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.