Low stocks, high prices and reduced sources of income limit food security

Next quarter, irregularities in the temporal and spatial distribution of the rains are expected, with average to below-average rainfall in the Caribbean region of Central America. These conditions could affect the Apante agricultural season.

In addition to Primera grain losses for subsistence farmers due to the effects of the extensive dry spell, excessive rainfall during September and October affected the Postrera crops, which suffered from fungal diseases during vegetative development and during the drying of crops.

At present and through the coming months, the main income opportunities will come from the seasonal harvest of tropical fruit, sugarcane, shrimp (though it could be affected by high rainfall levels), and coffee (though gains are limited due to low international coffee prices).

Between October and September, regional maize prices followed a downward seasonal trend, but appear to be above the average. Bean prices stabilized in recent months with the exception of Honduras, which saw a 13% increase in prices. Despite this, bean prices in Honduras remained average to below average. Bean prices in El Salvador remained average to below average, and in Nicaragua they were above average.

The majority of vulnerable households—principally in the south and west of Honduras, in the east and west of El Salvador, and in the center and north of Nicaragua—will encounter food insecurity–with unemployment, no food reserves, Primera harvest losses and damages to the Postrera harvest—and are classified in Stress (IPC, Phase 2) from November 2018 to January 2019.