Food access will continue to be limited by an extended annual lean season

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This year’s annual lean season will extend a month longer than normal and is approaching its peak, during which seasonal factors exacerbate the deterioration of food security for the poorest households in the region. In particular, subsistence farmers in areas of the region's Dry Corridor and in northern Honduras have resorted to negative coping strategies (such as reducing essential non-food expenditures like health and education and reducing the amount of food consumed) to compensate for a seasonal decline in their food availability, which has been worsened by the agricultural losses during 2023. Therefore, until the primera harvest in September, households in these areas will continue to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. The remainder of the rural poor households in the region will be classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2).
The moisture deficit affected the start of the primera season, delaying planting by approximately one month. However, with the increase in rainfall accumulations since June, these deficits have been reduced considerably, allowing the development of staple grain crops. However, continued abnormally high temperatures have caused a higher incidence of pests and diseases which have not caused significant damage to date, but will drive higher expenses for farmers who have a lower investment capacity due to the consecutive shocks in previous years. Due to the transition to La Niña, warm conditions and irregular, above-average rainfall accumulation are expected to continue until January 2025. Primera subsistence production is expected to be slightly below average, especially in hillside areas, where soil saturation causes landslides, as well as in flood-prone areas. For the postrera, climate conditions are expected to be similar and could pose a greater risk to bean production, which is most important during this cycle, and an increase in production costs. Harvests of cash crops in both cycles will be within average in all three countries.Harvests of primera and postrera crops are expected to increase food availability in producer households compared to previous months and the outcomes observed in 2023. The poorest households are expected to show conditions of improved food security and be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from October through January 2025, especially as seasonal increases in employment opportunities in sectors such as agriculture, tourism, and trade will improve access to food.
Although inflation rates remained stable in June 2024, food inflation continues to show month-on-month increases, with El Salvador and Nicaragua reporting increases of 1.3 and 1.4 percent over the previous month, respectively. Analysis of the Basic Food Basket (BFB) shows costs are well above the five-year average and the value reported in 2023, except for the rural BFB in El Salvador, where a slight decline occurred. In Nicaragua and Honduras, the cumulative variation has increased by almost 8 and 5 percent, respectively. In El Salvador, the urban BFB reported an increase of 2 percent, while the rural BFB reported a decrease of close to 4 percent. The main factor behind the higher prices is the residual effect of the generalized increases that occurred in 2022 as a result of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, when the BFB increased by close to 10 percent in Nicaragua, and up to 14.4 percent in rural El Salvador. These cumulative increases resulted in a significant drop in the purchasing power of the poorest households, which have not seen a proportional increase in their incomes. Until January 2025, seasonal declines will be reported, especially in staple grains, but food prices are not expected to decrease significantly.
Income-generating opportunities will remain seasonally low until the harvest of cash crops, such as coffee and sugarcane, in October. The harvest will lead to an increase in income for day laborer households. This year, climate factors are expected to constrain coffee yields so incomes will not improve relative to previous years. Year-end commercial and tourism activities will also support urban household incomes. Remittances will continue to support food purchases and other basic needs, compensating for the decrease in purchasing power in recipient households. Remittances are expected to remain near or slightly higher than those reported last year. Nicaragua has reported higher growth in remittances in recent months, but the tightening of immigration policies in the United States may slow this trend.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua Key Message Update July 2024: Food access will continue to be limited by an extended annual lean season, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.