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Extended periods without rain affects the vegetative development of basic grains

  • Key Message Update
  • El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua
  • July 2019
Extended periods without rain affects the vegetative development of basic grains

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • The LIX Central America Climate Forum forecast for the August - October quarter a scenario with normal rainfall: in Honduras, specifically in the departments of Choluteca, Valle, Francisco Morazán and Gracias a Dios and in Nicaragua, the Pacific, Central and North regions, and the North Caribbean Coast Autonomous Region.

    • In most of the cultivated areas of the region, grain production is in the flowering phase, a determining period to define the upcoming harvest; In the southeastern region of Honduras and the Central and North regions of Nicaragua, du to prolonged days without rains, losses of crops not yet corroborated have been observed, inducing grain losses and affecting vulnerable families.

    • An upward trend in prices is likely, due to commercial speculation, causing stock retention despite the fact that prices have remained stable compared to the previous month, but above the average for corn and below average for beans.

    • Currently, income generation of the most vulnerable families located in regions of subsistence agriculture, which depends mainly on employment in the production of basic grains, will be affected by drought, although in regions that have access to livestock and fish farming will have employment opportunities, as well as in horticultural and tropical fruit production.

    • The families of the poorest farmers who do not have stocks and record crop losses will extend their dependence on the market for their food supply are likely to engage in coping strategies, acquiring less nutritious food, reducing the quantity and regularity of food intake and migrating to urban centers of the region to obtain the income that allows them to satisfy their basic needs.

    • Most vulnerable households in the region will find themselves in stress (IPC, Phase 2), due to the deterioration in livelihoods that will limit their access to basic non-food needs; however, a more limited number of poorer households in isolated communities could be limiting food rations and using negative coping strategies, finding themselves in Crisis (IPC, Phase 3) Acute Food Insecurity, particularly in Honduras.

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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