Slightly below-average production expected due to unfavorable weather

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Due to the delayed onset of the 2024 primera season, the annual lean season is expected to be extended by one month. During this period, the poorest households in the region are expected to face increased food insecurity due to depleted own-produced food stocks, increased dependence on market purchases, and a seasonal drop in income-generating options resulting in limited purchasing power. Subsistence farmers in parts of the regional Dry Corridor and in northern Honduras are expected to be the most affected, as they have had to resort to negative coping strategies to deal with losses suffered during the 2023 production cycle, which diminished their livelihood assets. Consequently, households in these areas will continue to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes until the primera harvest in September, when increased food availability will improve food security outcomes to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) until January 2025.
Erratic rainfall continued in the region, with higher accumulations in the eastern half of Honduras and Pacific Nicaragua and deficits in western Honduras, northern El Salvador, and central Nicaragua. In July, erratic rainfall combined with atypically high temperatures resulted in lower water availability and an increase in the incidence of crop pests and diseases. However, no significant damage to staple grain production has occurred so far, although coping with these conditions has required greater financial investment on the part of producers, increasing overall production costs. Weather forecasts indicate the persistence of warm conditions and irregular rainfall, but with above-average accumulated rainfall until January 2025. This is expected to result in slightly below-average primera and postrera subsistence production, especially in the case of bean production. On the other hand, commercial production will remain close to average in all three countries.
Although headline inflation remained relatively stable in July 2024 compared to the previous month, prices have recorded an upward trend compared with the previous year. The category with the greatest variation is food, which reported increases of up to almost 9 percent in Nicaragua. Although there is a seasonal factor in this increase, weather conditions have also played a role in these variations. This is in addition to the residual effect of the sharp increases in 2022. In the case of staple grains, strategic reserves at the national level in each country and a staggered harvest have allowed for stability in the prices of white maize and red beans compared with the previous month, and even significant decreases in year-on-year variation. Nicaragua, in particular, reports a 37 percent decrease, due to the government's decision to restrict exports, considerably increasing domestic supply. Grain prices are expected to continue decreasing in the coming months as this year's harvests come out. However, food inflation is not expected to decrease significantly, given the impact of other food prices.
Starting in October, employment is expected to increase seasonally due to the harvest of cash crops such as coffee and sugarcane, which, despite the weather challenges, are expected to result in close to or slightly below average production. Wage rates are expected to be similar to those of the previous year, so the level of income for day laborers will not significantly vary this year. Urban households are expected to see a boost in income from the increase in commercial and tourist activities during year-end holidays. Remittances, another source of income, will continue the trend reported so far, which will make it possible to supplement access to food and cover other basic needs.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua Key Message Update August 2024: Slightly below-average production expected due to unfavorable weather, 2024.

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