Delay in the start of the primera season due to irregular rainfall

• In most of the region, poor urban and rural households will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through September as the lean season sets in, exacerbated by atypically high prices. Despite relative price stability in recent months, prices remain well above average, putting pressure on household finances and their ability to access food. On the other hand, very poor households located in the Dry Corridor of Honduras and eastern El Salvador saw a deterioration in their livelihoods due to previous shocks, which will force very poor households in these areas to resort to negative coping strategies more frequently, such as the sale of productive assets or increasing their dependence on credit, accompanied by a drop in the quality and quantity of their food, placing them in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between June and September.

• In May, rains started irregularly and late throughout the region, accompanied by significant increases in maximum temperatures. Satellite images indicate that areas in central Honduras and the Dry Corridor of Nicaragua have shown a considerable deterioration in agricultural conditions since April. As a result, primera plantings are expected to be delayed, and difficulties in feeding livestock, which tends to rely more on pasture during this time of year, are anticipated. Rainfall is expected to increase in the coming weeks, but the establishment of the El Niño phenomenon will cause below-average rainfall accumulations during the rest of the agricultural cycle, including during the canicula dry spell, which could extend longer than usual. This scenario is likely to lead to a reduction in subsistence production and a deterioration in livestock conditions, especially in the region's Dry Corridor.

• After high inflationary pressures at the end of 2022, annual headline and food inflation rates are showing a deceleration. This is due to a decrease in the prices of some foods, services, and fuels throughout the region. However, according to April 2023 data, they are still elevated, especially food inflation, which stands at 10.4, 14.7, and 12.7 percent in El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua, respectively. In the following months, a slight decrease in inflation rates, especially for general inflation, is expected to continue.

• In April, prices of staple grains showed stability when compared to the previous month in all three countries. Similarly, the basic food basket has also shown month-on-month stability across the region, thanks to the stable or declining behavior of other food products, such as chicken, eggs, and vegetable oil. However, prices continue to be above the values reported in 2022 and above the five-year average. White maize, for example, reported year-over-year increases of up to 18.2 percent, while red bean prices rose up to 66.7 percent over the same period. With respect to the five-year average, the reported increases are between 39.0 and 65.2 percent for white maize and between 71.3 and 92.5 percent for red beans.

Recommended Citation: FEWS NET. El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua Key Message Update, May 2023: Delay in the start of the primera season due to irregular rainfall, 2023.