Ecuador
Ecuador
- FEWS NET estimates that 1.0-2.49 million people (5-15 percent of Ecuador’s population) will require humanitarian food assistance in 2026. Acute food insecurity is expected to remain concentrated among poor households dependent on informal labor, internally displaced persons (IDPs), and Venezuelan and Colombian migrants. National food availability is expected to remain adequate, but violence-related disruptions to income-generating activities are expected to reduce household purchasing power, particularly in the coastal provinces of Guayas, Los Ríos, Manabí, and El Oro, where criminal violence is most severe.
- High and increasing levels of organized criminal violence are a key driver of acute food insecurity in Ecuador. Organized criminal violence in Ecuador has risen sharply since 2020, displacing an estimated 316,000 people in 2025. Criminal organizations are increasingly targeting people not involved in criminal activity through intimidation and violence. Although agricultural production and national food supply are unlikely to be significantly affected, insecurity is expected to constrain economic activity, increase operating costs, and reduce labor opportunities.
- The economic impacts of violence are the primary pathway through which insecurity contributes to acute food insecurity. Extortion, insecurity along transportation routes, curfews, and elevated security costs are increasing the cost of doing business while reducing economic activity in affected areas. Poor households reliant on informal employment are particularly vulnerable, as labor opportunities and earnings are expected to remain constrained despite broadly stable macroeconomic conditions, near-average food prices, and adequate national food supplies. As a result, food access is expected to remain limited among poor market-dependent households even where markets remain functional.
- Violence is the primary driver of acute food insecurity in Ecuador; however, the impacts are likely to be compounded by extreme weather events and above-average temperatures, exacerbating acute food insecurity. National staple food availability is expected to remain near average; however, localized flooding, heat stress, and weather-related disruptions may reduce income-earning opportunities, increase non-food expenditures, and contribute to displacement. In coastal areas, El Niño-related declines in fish availability are expected to reduce incomes among fishing-dependent households, while poor households reliant on agricultural labor face reduced employment opportunities. These impacts will likely compound existing vulnerabilities among poor households, IDPs, and migrants.