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Heat Exposure Projections

Heat Exposure Projections

This page features an interactive map with FEWS NET’s projections of heat exposure and impacted populations in the year 2050. It includes data on present-day conditions and areas of concern for extreme heat stress by mid-century. By including these data on a single map, FEWS NET aims to facilitate a better understanding of the anticipated operating context in areas where extreme heat is occurring and forecast.

  • This map includes countries with USAID Missions. Countries in white do not currently have data included on this map.
  • For data included in this map, extreme heat days are defined as days with Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures (WBGT) of 30°C/86°F or higher. WBGT humid-heat temperatures incorporate both air temperatures and relative humidity, with more humid areas being hotter. Thus, areas that are hot and humid are more hazardous.
  • Person-days refers to the total number of days of extreme heat experienced in a year multiplied by the population in a given geography that experienced such heat. This number is divided by one million to provide million person-days per year, as used in this map.
  • Population estimates on this map are available via the LandScan Global Population Database and reflect the number of people per square kilometer in the year 2022.
  • Observed Heat Exposure 2000-2016 data is from the Climate Hazards Center Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CHC-CMIP6) that supports the analysis of climate-related hazards over the recent past and in the near future. Support for the development of this dataset was provided by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and USAID. This climate projection dataset contains global, daily gridded data for the observational (1983-2016) and projection (2030 and 2050) periods to be used in the identification and monitoring of hydroclimatic extremes. The dataset contains global daily high resolution (0.05°) grids of the Climate Hazards InfraRed Temperature with Stations (CHIRTS-daily) temperature product, the Climate Hazards InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) precipitation product, and ERA5-derived relative humidity, from which Vapor Pressure Deficits (VPD) and maximum Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures (WBGTmax) were derived. The results presented here are based on WBGTmax. 
  • Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) refer to climate change scenarios of projected socioeconomic global changes up to 2100 as defined in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. SSPs are used to derive greenhouse gas emissions scenarios with different climate policies.
  • SSP245 and SSP585 represent two different future emission scenarios. These scenarios have been used to drive two large sets of CMIP6 climate projections, each with varying degrees of severity. SSP245 uses a lower-emission set of assumptions to inform its heat projections and reflects a more optimistic scenario. SSP585 uses higher emission assumptions and reflects a hotter, more pessimistic scenario.
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About this Interactive Map
Description

Extreme heat is a growing concern around the world, and global temperatures are expected to steadily increase in the decades to come. Extreme heat can have detrimental impacts on human and livestock health, crop and pasture conditions, disease prevalence, supply chains, and critical infrastructure.

FEWS NET’s Learning and Data Hub and UCSB Climate Hazards Center partners developed this interactive map to help analysts and decision-makers better visualize data related to current global extreme heat exposure and projections for 2050. This resource is designed to help users understand the evolution and scale of extreme heat threats by mid-century, with data assets that can be used for planning and decision-making in a warming world.

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The information provided on this Website is not official U.S. Government information and does not represent the views or positions of the U.S. Agency for International Development or the U.S. Government.

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