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Potential impacts of 2012/2013 El Nino event

  • Special Report
  • Global
  • August 30, 2012
Potential impacts of 2012/2013 El Nino event

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • National Security Stocks held by most West Africa governments were depleted over the 2011/12 consumption and marketing year. To date, SSNs in most countries are less than 50 percent replenished due to inadequate financing and poor SSN management. These stock levels are very atypical for this late in the marketing year.

    • The impacts of an El Niño event vary by region and time of year. In East Africa, El Niño events in this period typically lead to wetter-than-normal conditions for the October to December rains in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region, including southern Somalia, south and southeastern parts of Ethiopia, and northeastern parts of Kenya. In West Africa, El Niño does not typically have significant impacts on the rainy season and agricultural prospects. In southern Africa, El Niño conditions increase the probability of dry spells in areas prone to dryness. In Central America, El Niño events have historically led to below-average rainfall in the Caribbean areas and along the Central and Pacific basins.

    • The progress of the 2012/13 El Niño, including the degree of SST rise in the equatorial Pacific, the geographic extent of the SST rise, and unseasonal rainfall, should be closely monitored to determine potential impacts on food security. 


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    Occasionally, FEWS NET will publish a Special Report that serves to provide an in-depth analysis of food security issues of particular concern that are not covered in FEWS NET’s regular monthly reporting. These reports may focus on a specific factor driving food security outcomes anywhere in the world during a specified period of time. For example, in 2019, FEWS NET produced a Special Report on widespread flooding in East Africa and its associated impacts on regional food security.

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