September 2024 Global Price Watch

• In West Africa, prices spiked in July and August across the Sahel, triggered by recent flood incidents. Prices remained significantly above their five-year average levels throughout the region due to below-average stocks, high demand, delayed institutional purchase, insecurity, macroeconomic challenges, trade restrictions, and high transportation costs. Seasonal price declines are expected from September onward driven by the main rainfed harvests. Recent agroclimatic events, increased insecurity, and trade restrictions will maintain prices above average. Nigeria’s inflation rate decreased for the second consecutive month. 
• In East Africa, staple food prices increased across most markets in September due to seasonal stock tightening and heightened demand, particularly in Ethiopia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Burundi. However, prices stabilized or declined in areas with recent harvests, including parts of Somalia, Kenya, southwestern Ethiopia, northwestern Uganda, and coastal and central Tanzania. Livestock prices rose in most markets from improved rangeland conditions. Prices remained elevated in South Sudan, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Burundi due to persistent macroeconomic challenges, including currency depreciation. In Sudan and South Sudan, coarse grain prices reached new record highs, underpinned by tight supplies and severe economic difficulties exacerbated by ongoing conflict.
• In Southern Africa, maize prices continued their upward trend in August due to tightening supplies following the El Niño-induced drought. While Tanzania maintained relative price stability due to its recent bumper harvest, South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, and parts of Mozambique experienced significant annual increases due to reduced harvests, elevated demand, and constraints on regional trade. Southern Africa is expected to face a negative maize balance in the 2024/25 marketing year. This production shortfall is expected to drive further price increases, with inflation risks and currency pressures potentially exacerbating regional market challenges. The drought's impact on hydropower generation in some countries continues to affect economic activities and staple food markets. 
• In Central America, maize prices showed mixed trends due to a staggered and delayed primera 2024 harvest and import availability. Black and red bean prices were stable on average, and regional supplies remained below average due to losses associated with climatic conditions over the previous years. In Haiti, local and imported food prices were stable, supported by seasonal improvements after the spring harvest and currency stability. In Venezuela, currency stability resulted in steady food prices in local and foreign currency. 
• In the Middle East and Asia, the export price of milling wheat in Kazakhstan declined in August. Wheat flour prices were generally unchanged or changed within the stable range in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and in the IRG and SBA regions of Yemen, but increased slightly in Lebanon.  
• International staple food markets were well supplied in August. Global maize and wheat prices declined due to harvest pressure and sluggish demand, while rice prices stabilized at elevated levels. Crude oil prices decreased amid economic concerns and fertilizer prices were relatively stable. Most commodity prices were below 2023 levels but above the five-year average.

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