October 2024 Global Price Watch

• In West Africa, prices were stable or increasing in the Sahel and declining seasonally in coastal countries. Prices remained above their five-year average levels across the region due to below-average stocks, high demand, insecurity, macroeconomic challenges, trade restrictions, high transportation costs, and floods. Depreciation and increased fuel prices increased inflation in Nigeria following two months of decrease. Looking ahead, seasonal price declines are expected as harvests begin in the Sahel. Production deficits associated with agroclimatic shocks, trade restrictions, and insecurity will maintain above-average prices.
• In East Africa, staple food prices stabilized or declined across most markets in September, supported by high carryover stocks and the onset of the October to February harvest season. Green harvests contributed to price stability, particularly in Tanzania, Kenya, and Ethiopia, and parts of Somalia, Uganda, South Sudan, and Sudan. However, prices remained elevated in areas experiencing trade disruptions from floods, insecurity, and poor road conditions, notably in Burundi, parts of Sudan, South Sudan, and Somalia. Improved rangeland conditions led to better livestock body conditions and higher prices across most markets, though demand varied by region.
• In Southern Africa, staple food prices remained elevated in September, driven by tight regional white maize supplies and increased import demand. South Africa's white maize prices exceeded yellow maize prices due to limited regional and international availability, while significant imports by Zimbabwe, Malawi, DRC, Zambia, Mozambique, and Botswana further tightened regional stocks. High food prices continued to fuel inflation above target ranges in several countries, particularly those facing macroeconomic challenges like Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, DRC, and Angola. However, inflation moderated in South Africa, Mozambique, and Tanzania.
• In Central America, white maize supply and prices were supported by a near-average local supply and above-average imports. Black and red bean prices declined, driven by seasonal improvements in local supply. In Haiti, insecurity continued to limit market operations in Port-au-Prince and Artibonite. Local and imported staple food prices were stable due to carryover stocks from recent harvests, easing international cereal prices and currency stability. In Venezuela, inflation rates continued to ease and food prices were stable in local and foreign currency.
• In the Middle East and Asia, the export price of milling wheat in Kazakhstan declined in September. The prices of wheat flour declined in Pakistan and remained stable in Afghanistan and the IRG and SBA regions of Yemen. In Lebanon, white bread prices increased due to market disruptions, hoarding, and depletion of subsidized wheat.
• International prices showed mixed trends in September, with the FAO Food Price Index recording its largest monthly increase since March 2022. Rice prices moderated following India’s removal of an export ban. Cereal prices strengthened due to weather-related supply concerns, and crude oil prices declined amid weak demand. Most commodity prices remained above five-year averages despite being below 2023 prices.

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