October 2016 Global Price Watch

In West Africa, the regional harvest outlook is favorable as the 2015/16 marketing year came to a close in September. Staple food production during the 2016/17 marketing year is expected to be similar to 2015/16 and well above average. International rice and wheat imports continue to support regional market supplies. Markets remained disrupted throughout the Lake Chad Basin and in parts of Central and Northern Mali. The recent depreciation of the Naira has led to price increases across Nigeria and reduced purchasing power for livestock and cash crops in the Sahel.

In East Africa, staple food prices seasonally declined slightly but remained very high in South Sudan following abrupt escalation of conflict in Juba in July and the resulting significant disruption of market activity. Maize and sorghum prices increased in Ethiopia following the recent below-average Belg harvest and tightening of supplies. Maize prices were seasonally stable in surplus-producing Tanzania and Uganda, except in the Karamoja region where below-average harvests led to price increases. Markets remain disrupted by insecurity in Yemen.

In Southern Africa, regional maize availability is currently adequate, despite consecutive years of well-below average regional production. Maize prices are above their respective 2015 and five-year average levels region wide. Imports by South Africa and Zimbabwe from well-supplied international grain markets have offset a portion of the regional deficit, while maize export restrictions in Zambia remained in place. Prices remain high and variable in Mozambique, which is experiencing supply constraints and where other factors contribute to food trade and price dynamics.

In Central America, maize and bean supplies from the Primera harvest began to supply markets across the region, which is estimated to be near average levels. Maize prices seasonally declined while bean price trends were mixed. In Haiti, staple food markets remained well supplied in September. However, prices are expected to increase in the coming months due to significant crop loss from hurricane Mathew.

In Central Asia, near average regional harvests and above-average stocks sustained adequate supplies. Prices are below 2015 levels in Kazakhstan and above-average in structurally-deficit Tajikistan. Prices continued to be near average in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

International staple food markets remain well supplied. Maize, rice, and soybean prices fell while wheat prices increased in September. Crude oil prices increased and remained well below average.