November 2022 Global Price Watch

In West Africa, staple food prices declined with the ongoing main harvests. However, prices strengthened in parts of the Sahel affected by insecurity and flooding. Overall, prices remained significantly higher than the five-year average due to the below-average stocks, substantial demand for replenishment and humanitarian assistance, various trade restrictions, and persistent insecurity. In the Coastal countries, above-average prices were driven by strong export demand, high international commodity prices, a sharp rise in fuel costs, and depreciating currencies.

In East Africa, staple food prices remained stable in key markets due to the imminent start of the ongoing October-to-January harvest. Prices increased in most markets in Burundi and Uganda because of limited stocks but prices declined slightly in a few markets in Sudan as old stocks were released into the market for stores to carry fresh supplies. Prices remained elevated due to currency depreciation, production and marketing costs, and the impacts of the war in Ukraine that disrupted fuel, fertilizer, and commodity supplies. Livestock prices varied with rangeland conditions.

In Southern Africa, maize prices increased seasonally in October across most markets and remained above the previous year and five-year averages, driven by declining stock-to-use ratios and strong export demand to East Africa. Inflation surged in the region in October, driven by high global commodity prices, exchange rate volatility, and international supply chain disruptions. Maize grain prices across the region are expected to increase until the April harvest due to a below-average 2022 harvest, tightening stocks, high export demand, and volatile global commodity markets. Uncertainty regarding the future of the Black Sea grain agreement will continue to be a key driver of elevated prices. 

In Central America, above-average rainfall disrupted market operations in October. Local maize grain availability improved from the primera harvest, and white maize prices seasonally declined. Red bean prices increased sharply due to market speculation related to potential losses following Tropical Storms Julia and Lisa. In Haiti, the sociopolitical crisis continued to affect market operations and food supply. Local food prices sharply increased due to disruptions to transportation and below-average production during the main harvest. Imported food prices increased due to insecurity at ports and depreciation of the local currency

In Central Asia, wheat harvests were near average in Kazakhstan (13.2 MMT) and Tajikistan (852,000 MT) and slightly above average in Uzbekistan (6.1 MMT). In Yemen, despite the expiration of the UN-brokered truce in October, conflict did not escalate. The stability supported continued commodity availability and stable prices in Sana’a city while prices for wheat flour, rice, and vegetable oil dropped slightly in Aden 

International markets were sufficiently supplied. Global staple food prices increased, global fuel prices increased due to the war in Ukraine, and fertilizer prices decreased due to lower seasonal demand. However, prices remain above 2021 and the five-year average.