Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Key Messages

• In West Africa, cereal and legume market supplies increased in October with the onset of the main harvest. Supply, however, remained below average across much of the region due to below-average production in several countries and due to a limited release of stocks. Above-average demand was reported in most areas due to increased replenishment of trader and industrial stocks. Overall, prices decreased or were stable compared to September at above-average levels. Trade flows remained affected by lingering border restrictions and high transport costs. Conflict-related market disruptions were reported across parts of Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Chad, and Cameroon. 

• In East Africa, staple food prices exhibited mixed trends. Maize and sorghum prices increased seasonably in Burundi, Sudan, and parts of Somalia as stocks tightened and demand increased in source markets. Prices remained stable in most markets in Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, South Sudan, and parts of Somalia due to the ongoing or imminent start of October-to-January harvests. Prices remained elevated across the region due to high inflation and below-average harvests. Livestock prices remained stable or declined because of poor rangeland conditions.

• In Southern Africa, markets and the milling subsector are well-supplied, with maize following above-average production during the 2020/21 production year, except in Madagascar, where supply was below average. Price trends followed seasonal stable or increasing trends in October. Prices remained lowest in Malawi and South Africa. Although rainfall conditions are favorable at the start of the 2021/22 production season, high production costs may constrain production, especially in South Africa. While firm international commodity prices supported regional export earnings, many regional currencies continued to depreciate. 

• In Central America, markets were well supplied and operating normally. Maize prices declined following primera harvests, while local bean prices were stable at average to above-average levels. Prices increased typically in El Salvador due to increasing fuel and transportation costs. In Haiti, fuel shortages, political unrest, and insecurity disrupted commercial activities. Local maize and black bean prices were stable at elevated levels while imported staple foods prices continued to increase. 

• In Central Asia, wheat price trends varied. Wheat prices in Kazakhstan and Pakistan tracked international reference market trends, increasing further in October. Prices increased across Afghanistan with the depreciation of the AFN. In Yemen, prices remained above average due to protracted conflict and persistent depreciation of the YER. Price trends differed significantly between internationally recognized government (IRG) and Sana’a-based authorities (SBA) controlled areas.

• International staple food markets remained well supplied.  Rice and maize prices were stable while wheat prices continued rising at elevated levels (Figure 2). Global crude oil and fertilizer prices, along with freight costs, reached five-year high levels.