Price Watch

March 2021 Global Price Watch

March 2021

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • In West Africa, market supplies were average, except in Nigeria where market supplies remain below average. Insecurity and conflict continued to hamper market functioning and access in the Greater Lake Chad basin, the Liptako-Gourma region, northwest and north-central Nigeria, and the Northwest and Southwest regions of Cameroon. Demand for coarse grains is above average and increased earlier than usual in the eastern basin. Prices were stable or increasing and generally above average. Poor macroeconomic conditions continued in Nigeria.

  • In East Africa, staple food price trends varied seasonally across the region. Prices declined or remained stable in most markets across Uganda, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Kenya, and Burundi due to increased supply from the October-to-February harvest. Prices increased in Somalia due to the below-average January harvest. Staple food prices in Tanzania increased as supplies tightened before the main harvest in May. Poor macro-economic conditions heightened staple food commodity prices in Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia. Livestock price trends varied depending on local rangeland conditions.

  • In Southern Africa, despite adequate regional maize availability throughout the 2020/21 marketing year, prices have been elevated. Upward price pressure started to subside in February as the lean season concludes. Prices continued declining in South Africa, Malawi, DRC and likely reached their peak levels in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Tanzania. Staple food production prospects are favorable across much of the region for the 2021/22 marketing year. Southern Madagascar has experienced consecutive years of drought and prices continue to increase at already elevated levels.

  • In Central America, markets were adequately supplied and operating normally. Maize prices decreased seasonally in February, except for Guatemala. Bean prices were stable or increasing while rice prices remained stable. In Haiti, markets were well supplied except for Croix-des-Bossales (Port-au-Prince) due to civil insecurity. Prices of imported products such as rice increased with local currency volatility.

  • In Central Asia, wheat prices in Pakistan and Kazakhstan were relatively stable but increased in Afghanistan and Tajikistan. In Yemen, the economy continues to be impacted by foreign currency shortages and the depreciation of the local currency due to protracted conflict. Staple food prices remain significantly above their respective 2020 levels.

  • International staple food markets are well supplied. Rice, wheat, and soybean prices were stable while maize prices were stable or increasing in February (Figure 2). Global crude oil prices rose further in February due to declining inventory levels and expectations for recovery in global oil demand in 2021. Global fertilizer prices increased significantly due to increased demand and supply-side disruption.

About Price Watch

Price Watch offers a monthly summary and outlook on global, regional and national trends of key commodity prices in FEWS NET countries. Analysis may touch on global issues, such as fuel prices or exchange rates, if they are likely to influence staple food prices in FEWS NET countries. The accompanying Price Watch Annex details price trends by country.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics