Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Key Messages

• In West Africa, market supplies continued to decrease seasonally in May, remaining below average in several countries. Coarse grain prices in Sahel countries remained stable but above average due to below-average supply. Currency depreciation, COVID-19 related transaction costs, and above-average demand put upward pressure on rice prices, especially in Coastal countries. Maize prices trended above average due to increased demand for local supply as the international price of maize increased. Month on month inflation in Nigeria stabilized, but year-on-year inflation remained at the highest levels recorded in the past five years. Conflict-related market disruptions continued across Chad, northern Nigeria, eastern Mali, and Cameroon.

• In East Africa, staple grain prices were stable across most markets in Burundi, Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, and South Sudan due to ample supply, reduced import costs due to currency appreciation, and government floor price support. Prices increased seasonally in border markets of Uganda due to high export demand and across most markets in Sudan as stocks tightened and with increased transportation costs. Prices declined typically across most markets in Tanzania as supplies started increasing following the start of the May-to-August harvest. Livestock prices were stable, driven by improving rangeland conditions. The economic situation remained poor in Sudan, South Sudan, Sudan, and Burundi due to persistent currency depreciation and high inflation, elevating the prices of staple food commodities.

• In Southern Africa, regional maize availability improved in May with the progression of the 2021/22 marketing year. Favorable growing conditions led to above 2020/21 and above-average production across much of the region. Aggregate national maize supply is expected to be average to above-average, except in Madagascar, where supply will be below average. Prices continued declining and were generally lower than 2020 levels but remained above average across much of the region in May. Maize prices in South Africa continued to track relatively high and increasing global reference market prices, trends which were also reflected in neighboring import-dependent countries.

• In Central America, markets were adequately supplied and operating normally. Maize prices increased seasonally in May, except in Guatemala. Rice and bean prices were stable. In Haiti, local maize and black bean prices decreased seasonally while imported rice prices were stable. Other imported staple food prices increased with the deprecation of the HTG.

• In Central Asia, wheat prices in Kazakhstan and Afghanistan were close to 2020 levels but remain above the five-year average. Prices in Pakistan remain significantly above 2020 and average levels. In Yemen, economy-wide impacts of foreign currency shortages and depreciation of the local currency persisted due to protracted conflict. Staple food prices remain significantly above May 2020 levels.

• International staple food markets are well supplied. Rice prices were stable while maize, wheat, soybean prices increased on average in May. Global crude oil prices rose moderately while global fertilizer price trends varied in May.